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FOMC

Highest Volume Candle Since Tarriff LowIWM saw a nasty reversal off the all time highs today. A potential weekly topping tail is building. What important about this reaction is the amount of volume that was traded. This was the highest candle since April 9th. High Volume reversals need to be monitored closely as it does show large money distributed into this strength. A high volume candle marked the tariff bottom. Will a high volume candle signal a near term top?
AMEX:IWMShort
by Trading-Capital
1
Two-phase FOMC reaction on EURUSD explained: Where next?EURUSD experienced a classic "dovish-then-hawkish" whipsaw following the Fed's 25bp cut. The Initial dovish reaction saw the fibre surge above 1.19 to multi-year highs as the dot plot showed 50bp additional cuts vs expected 25bp in 2025. However, Powell's hawkish presser reversed gains within the hour, describing the cut as "risk management" rather than an aggressive easing cycle start. EURSD is finding support at 1.1778 (previous high), with the price having taken out the 100% Fibonacci extension from August lows. Critical support sits at 1.1740, with a break below invalidating the bullish bias. Bullish Scenario Targets : 1.1830, 1.1866 (critical level), then 1.2000-1.2032 Triggers : Hold above 1.1778, break above 1.1866 Rationale : ECB-Fed divergence theme intact with ECB holding, while Fed cuts Bearish Scenario (Potential Dead Cat Bounce) Targets : 1.1750, 1.1730 Entry : Short at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (~1.1832) Stop : Above 1.1878 R:R Ratio : 3.38 Where next? ECB pause vs Fed easing supports underlying bullish EUR/USD theme despite near-term volatility. But the next FOMC meetings are more critical as Powell emphasised a "meeting-by-meeting" approach. Current pullback is likely a retracement before a potential continuation higher, but watch for rejection at the weekly trendline resistance shy of 1.20. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 🔮✨EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 💵 🎯 Q4 2025 Forecast & Range • Base-case: EUR/USD around $1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, drifting toward ~1.20 by year-end. • Bull case: Faster US slowdown, Fed cuts, euro resilience → test 1.25+. • Bear case: Fed stays hawkish, euro weakens → drop toward 1.15 (with risk down to 1.10–1.12). Upside scenario 🚀: Fed cuts early, ECB steady, risks ease. EUR/USD breaks 1.20, retests 1.22–1.25 zone, option gamma squeezes add momentum. Downside scenario ⚠️: US data strong, Fed stays sticky, crisis drives safe-haven USD. EUR/USD drops below 1.15 → targets 1.10–1.12. On balance: Technicals & positioning favor base/bull outcome. EUR/USD above DMA cluster, sentiment allows more upside. Break >1.18 turns 1.20 into support, opens 1.22–1.25 zone. Invalidation = sharp drop below 1.15. Core thesis: The EUR/USD appears set for a higher range into late 2025 as U.S. dollar exceptionalism fades 💵➡️💶. Markets price a Fed pivot – several rate cuts penciled in by early 2026 – against an ECB that is nearly done easing. That narrows the US–EU rate gap and should weaken the dollar 📉. At the same time, softer US growth/inflation and global portfolio shifts away from US assets may further tilt the balance toward the euro 🌍. Conversely, any U.S. data surprises or policy hiccups could bolster the greenback ⚡. Our baseline view sees EUR/USD around 1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, roughly mid‐range of consensus forecasts 📊. 📉 EUR/USD daily chart (2023–2025) with key support at ~1.15 and resistance near 1.18–1.20. The pair has traded in a ~1.14–1.18 range since early 2025. A decisive break above 1.18 could target ~1.20–1.22 upper trendline, while a drop below 1.15 might reopen ~1.10. ________________________________________ 🔍🌐 Macro & Policy Drivers • 💡 Fed vs. ECB monetary policy (10/10): By late 2025 the Fed is widely expected to start cutting rates possibly two 25bps cuts in Q4 2025, terminal ~3.5% by 2026, whereas the ECB has nearly finished its easing cycle. A shrinking interest gap ECB depo ~1.75%, Fed funds ~3.5% supports the euro. In short, Fed pivot = USD softening. • 📊 US economic momentum (9/10): Any further slowdown or disinflation in the U.S. will prompt Fed easing sooner, undermining the dollar. Conversely, surprisingly strong US data inflation above target, resilient GDP/jobs could keep rates higher longer, capping EUR/USD gains. • 🇪🇺 Eurozone fundamentals (8/10): Europe’s recovery – aided by lower energy costs – is improving. Eurozone GDP is running around ~1–1.5% and inflation is near target, so the ECB likely pauses on cuts. Any signs of renewed growth or fiscal stimulus in the EU e.g. German budget support would bolster EUR. On the other hand, fresh euro-area weakness or political instability could dent the euro. • 🏛️ US political/fiscal factors (7/10): Trade and tax policy continue to influence flows. A reported US–China tariff “ceasefire” has already eased pressure on global trade, but any renewed tariff battles could renew safe-haven USD demand. Meanwhile, US fiscal pressures debt ceiling fights, deficit spending or threats like Section 899 taxing foreign holders of US assets could undermine confidence in the dollar. • ⚔️ Geopolitical risks (6/10): War and geopolitical events tend to drive safe-haven flows. For example, any de-escalation in Ukraine/Middle East risk would remove a bid under USD and help EUR. Conversely, a severe global shock or “risk-off” event e.g. new conflict could rerate USD up. • 📅 Seasonality & flows (4/10): Historically, EUR/USD often sees end-of-year inflows year-end rebalancing and sometimes a modest Q4 rally. Some seasonal analyses note late-November/December strength institutions locking in positions. Weaker USD around year-end if it materializes would amplify this. • 📉 Options and positioning (4/10): Large options strikes and dealer hedging can accentuate moves. For example, heavy call skew on EUR/USD tends to make gains self-reinforcing via delta-hedging. Conversely, if open interest clusters into puts at key levels, dips could be cushioned. ________________________________________ 📈🧭 Technical Roadmap EUR/USD is currently in a multi-month range ∼1.14–1.18. The recent price action shows anchored VWAPs and moving averages 20/50/100-DMA ≈1.153–1.168 converging in that band. • 🚀 Resistance: Clear supply sits ~1.18–1.18 top of range. A daily close above ~1.182 could trigger a move toward 1.20–1.22. Above 1.22, next fib-derived targets near ~1.25. • 🛡️ Support: Immediate support is the 1.161 pivot 50-DMA and then ~1.153 100-DMA. A break below ~1.153 would expose ~1.147 and open 1.10–1.12 psychological and last year’s lows. Below ~1.10, USD strength could dominate. • ⚡ Momentum: RSI and ADX are modest, implying the range could persist until a trigger. A bullish path would need clear Fed dovish hints to break out. A breakout could show the classic “impulse → pause → trend” rhythm. ________________________________________ 🌀🤖 Advanced Models & Cycles Quant techniques also point to a stronger euro ahead: • Fourier-cycle analysis of FX data shows multi-month oscillations (~1–2 years). Mean-reversion cycles suggest the early-2025 USD bounce might flip into a euro-positive Q4. • Neural-network/ML models trained on macro + technical inputs often flag Fed/ECB divergence and seasonality. Academic LSTM studies have shown strong results for EUR/USD direction forecasting. ________________________________________ 🚀 Key Catalysts (Ranked 0–10) 🔑 • 🔟 Fed rate path: The timing/magnitude of Fed cuts is THE driver. Early or larger Fed cuts vs. ECB hold would lift EUR/USD. • 🔟 U.S. economic data: Inflation surprises CPI, PCE and jobs/GDP data move expectations fast. • 🔟 ECB stance: ECB rhetoric and inflation. Stability or hawkishness boosts EUR. • 🟫 US political/fiscal moves: Trade policy, deficit fights, and Section 899 proposals could weaken USD. • 🟩 Eurozone growth & policy: Strong EU growth or fiscal stimulus = bullish EUR. Severe slowdown = bearish EUR. • 🟨 Geopolitical shocks: Escalation boosts USD; de-escalation helps EUR. • 🟦 Energy/commodity prices: High oil hurts EU, boosts USD. • 🟧 Seasonal flows: Q4 rebalancing often lifts EUR modestly. • 🟪 Options positioning: Dealer hedging around strikes magnifies moves. • ⬛ Euro-area politics: Local risks e.g. Italian budgets, German politics. ________________________________________ 🏦📊 Analysts & Institutional Forecasts • JP Morgan: ~1.20 by Q4 2025, ~1.22 mid-2026. • ING: ~1.20 end-2025, ~1.22 in 2026. • UBS: 1.21 end-2025, 1.23 mid-2026. • Morgan Stanley: ~1.25 by Q2 2026 bull case 1.30. • Goldman Sachs: ~1.20 (12M). • Consensus: ~1.15 reflecting caution if Fed cuts are delayed. Summary: The prevailing view is a weaker dollar into 2026. Most big banks have upgraded EUR/USD targets since 2024. Consensus for Dec 2025 clusters 1.15–1.25, with top banks leaning 1.20+.
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
55
XAU/USD | GOLD ATH at $3,707, Then Heavy Dump – What Happend?By analyzing the gold chart on the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that after the Fed rate cut announcement, the price first dropped from $3,686 to $3,649, stopping out many buyers. Then, gold rallied sharply, gaining 570 pips up to $3,707 and printing a new ATH, which stopped out sellers. After that, the market turned again, with another heavy drop that stopped out fresh buyers too. As I mentioned yesterday, this move was expected. Many asked why gold dropped despite the rate cut — the reason is that the news was already priced in last month. The market had anticipated the cut, which is why gold had already rallied earlier, and that’s why we saw this sharp drop after the announcement. Currently, gold is trading around $3,637 after falling to $3,627. I expect this decline to continue toward the next target zone at $3,612–$3,622. Once price reaches that level, we’ll review the next scenario. The key supply zones to watch are $3,667, $3,677, $3,684, and $3,691. I hope this analysis was helpful for you — stay tuned for more setups based on this outlook! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
38
XAUUSD – Bearish Setup After Liquidity Grab at All-Time HighsAfter the recent rate cut and the sweep of liquidity above the $3,707 ATH , gold has started developing a bearish market structure . On the daily chart , RSI has been hovering in the overbought region for an extended period and has now confirmed a bearish crossover , signaling potential downside momentum. Sellers have been stepping in aggressively since the top, and a corrective move looks increasingly likely. 🔹 Trade Plan Short entries: Aggressive: 3665 – 3673 Conservative (golden pocket): 3677 – 3684 Targets: TP1: 3600 TP2: 3580 TP3: 3530 Stop Loss: Above 3718.50 (protective buffer above liquidity zone). ⚠️ Risk Management Always size positions carefully. A break and daily close above 3718 would invalidate this setup.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by uzumaki_sasuke
1
Dot Plot Divide: Dollar Gains, Gold Stalls The USDJPY spiked lower following the Fed’s 25 basis point cut yesterday but quickly reversed trajectory as the dot plot projections from the FOMC came in softer than markets had expected. The updated dot plot showed a narrow majority of FOMC members anticipating two more small rate cuts in 2025, while others leaned toward just one or even none. This potentially suggests that the Fed is not simply aligning with Trump sycophant and newly appointed FOMC board member Stephen Miran’s aggressive call for repeated 50-basis-point cuts and instead signals an element of independence. USDJPY (left chart, 1H): The pair has carved out a sharp V-shaped reversal after its Fed-driven dip, showing strong bullish momentum. This suggests buyers remain in control unless a reversal candle (such as a bearish engulfing) forms. XAUUSD (right chart, 4H): Gold’s rally topped out near 3,707 before pulling back more than 600 pips to 3,646. The most recent candles show shorter bodies with upper wicks — a potential sign of fading momentum and supply pressure. If this develops into a bearish continuation pattern, the channel’s border becomes the next area of focus.
by BlackBull Markets
BTC End of Q3 Setup Now that FOMC is over and the FED finally cut interest rates by 25bps, what does this mean for BTC in the short term future and beyond? It has been known for a while that the September FOMC would bring a cut to interest rates and that is what we got, generally this was priced into the market and despite some low time frame volatility not much has changed in terms of % move in the last day. However, the macro does look bullish from here. Flipping $117,500 opens up the possibility of a range high test. For me this is the direction I'm leaning towards given the macro and how seasonality suggests a stronger end to the year especially after a rate cut. Should BTC fail to break above the grey box BTC stays within the same constraints it's had for the last month.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
ETH/USDT | Ethereum Pullback Over? Next Stop New Highs! (READ)By analyzing the Ethereum chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that after climbing to $4,700, the price pulled back and is now trading around $4,500. If ETH can hold above the $4,480 level, we can expect more upside. However, today the market will be very volatile due to the Fed interest rate decision. With that condition in mind, the next possible bullish targets for Ethereum are $5,100, $5,500, and $6,000. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
9
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve seen this play well so far this week so we’ll sit back and let them make the move before then looking for a set up to get in. We have initial support at the 3670 level and resistance above at the 3690 level which is the level that will need to break for price to then attempt a new high. Potential level here 3720-30 which is where we will want to assess the price action and potentially an opportunity to attempt the short trade for the swing may arise. Breaking above that level will invalidate the move. Downside, there is a hot spot at 3665 which is the level that will need a strong close, this level also has an extension of the move into the 3650-55 level and on the break 3630-35. Quick summary: Ideally, we support the 3670 level, push upside, attack the 3720-30 region and we’ll look for a reversal up there. IF we break below 3655, we’ll look further down around the 3620-30 region for a reversal for the scalp long. There is a big stretch on and in normal market conditions, this should have dropped all the way back down into the 3500’s at least. But, we have to play the game they present us with so let’s wait and see what happens. Also, FOMC might already be priced in, so it’s the press conference after the statement that will be of interest to the markets. Key levels to watch for the break: Red box level 3690 Red box level 3673 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
17
Gold — Fed Cut Fade: Overextended, Eyeing a ThrowbackGold — Fed Cut Fade: Overextended, Eyeing a Throwback 🎯 Gold ripped higher into the FOMC, but the 25 bp cut was fully priced in. Post-decision, we saw the classic whipsaw — down → up → slow fade into the close. With the dollar and real yields catching a bid, the metal looks due for digestion before the next leg. Technicals (4h) Overextended run: Vertical leg higher with no real basing. Supply zone: Sellers showed up around 3.71–3.75k. Volume magnet: Confluence of the broken trendline + HVN sits down at ~3.41k. Thin profile: Gap between 3.52 → 3.41k leaves room for a fast move lower if momentum flips. Trade Idea Short bias: Fading the 3.71–3.74k zone or on breakdown acceptance below 3.69k. Stop: Above 3.76k (invalidation). Target: 3.41k (major HVN + retest zone). Macro Context The Fed’s move matches expectations. With positioning stretched and “buy the rumor / sell the news” in play, near-term risk is for a pullback. Medium term, the trend stays bullish if easing continues and real yields drift lower. Not financial advice — just sharing the setup I’m watching. #Gold #GC1 #Futures #ShortSetup #VolumeProfile #FOMC
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Compression Below Resistance: Prepare for Post-FOMC BTC Plays__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is trapped in a volatility compression zone, trading just below key resistance and awaiting the high-stakes FOMC catalyst. The broader context shows contained flows and limited directional momentum: the market is on standby. Momentum: Short-term momentum is neutral to slightly bearish 📉, with price tightly range-bound and no strong buying impulse. All eyes on the macro trigger. Key levels: — Resistances (clustered):  • 116,800–116,814 (240 Pivot High, dominant multi-TF resistance)  • 124,277 (ATH/Daily Pivot High) — Supports :  • 114,800–114,809 (240 Pivot, primary short-term support)  • 113,421 (720 Pivot)  • 111,965 (Weekly Pivot High) Volumes: Volumes are normal across all timeframes, with only a small bump on short-term down moves (30m/15m) — no signs of extreme positioning. Multi-timeframe signals: Medium-term trend remains bullish (MTFTI "Strong Up" on daily/12H), but short-term timeframes (1H–4H–12H) show downward momentum and lack of a decisive volume trigger. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral to sell bias , confirming the absence of strong risk-on flows and supporting a cautious tactical approach. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant tone is cautious sideways compression — only act on clear breakout or rejection signals at range extremes. Global bias: Short-term neutral to bearish ; invalidated by a clear reclaim and hold above 116,814. Opportunities:  • Buy “breakout” only if price clearly breaks and sustains >116,814 with strong volume (first target 117,300, then 118,400+); invalidate below 114,809.  • Sell on firm break and hold <114,809, adding size if volume rises, targeting 114,000–113,000; invalidate on swift rebound >115,700. Risk zones / invalidations:  • Reclaim and hold >116,814 (with volume) invalidates short bias.  • Breakdown and hold <114,809 across several TFs activates downside. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):  • Imminent FOMC decision — options market, volatility compression, and max defensive positioning are the primary drivers.  • ETF flows cooling, Bitcoin dominance declining, risk rotations likely post-FOMC — no strong risk-on evidence yet.  • UK/EU inflation and dovish central banks are background noise, not immediate BTC movers. Action plan:  • on breakout or clean rejection of technical pivots (116,814/114,809).  • below indicated risk line.  • 117,300, 118,400+ in long; 114,000, 113,000 in short.  • R/R ~1.8–2; max initial exposure 12.5%, only scale in with confirmed multi-TF momentum. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ All timeframes show a tense coil: no timeframe provides a clear trend for now, reinforcing a "wait and see" approach. 1D/12H: Medium-term uptrend filter persists (MTFTI “Strong Up”), but near-term momentum repeatedly stalls below 116,814–116,800, with no volume breakthrough. 6H/4H/2H/1H: Tightly coiled range, anchored at 114,809; loss would open up liquidity tests down to 113,421–114,000. 30m/15m: Volume picks up on short-term declines; only a fleeting “risk-on” flash on 15m (no follow-through to higher TFs). Major divergences: Isolated 6H “Strong Buy” on equity isn’t confirmed at the market level, making any bounce fragile. 15m “risk-on” flashes lack multi-TF confirmation. Key invalidation/pivot levels are well aligned across TFs — critical for reactivity when the move comes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro and on-chain forces both encourage patience, with the FOMC outcome set to trigger the next major move. Macro events:  • in focus, strong rate cut expectations and options market tension dominate — clear primary driver.  • BoC goes dovish, UK/EU inflation tensions, but no direct “risk-on” signals across global macro.  • ETF flows tepid, specific post-FOMC asset rotation will be key. Bitcoin analysis:  • Bitcoin consolidates ~6.8% below ATH, inside technical “cloud” — price activity is all about risk management (options, ETF).  • On-chain support ~110k–114k solid, resistance 115.8k–116.8k, tightly aligned with technical levels. On-chain data:  • ETF inflows dormant, derivatives lead price action, no clear sign of euphoria or capitulation; on-chain support >108k remains robust.  • Overall attitude is defensive, “wait for the catalyst” mode. Expected impact:  • The FOMC’s reaction will drive the technical breakout or breakdown; only a clear confirmation will unlock decisive follow-through beyond the current coil. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin remains trapped in a compression phase under key resistance, on high alert going into the FOMC. The overall trend is short-term neutral to bearish, with all bullish setups hinged on a confirmed pivot breakout above 116,814. The highest-conviction play is to let the FOMC be the trigger: position with the move, not before. Macro dominance means no reason to anticipate a risk-on rotation until confirmation. Keep your edge: wait for multi-TF signals and volume confluence, and manage exposure tightly — false breakouts and volatility traps are the enemy heading into this macro event!
by Ox_kali
This is what is going to happen with BTC today, FOMC daMy FOMC-Day Playbook (Trader’s Read) Probabilities (today) • Sell-the-news (spike then fade): ~60% • Mini altseason (ETH leads, large caps follow): ~25% • BTC bullish continuation after the announcement: ~15% ← my BTC-only continuation probability Why my odds look like this • Funding is low → no derivatives euphoria; any rally needs spot demand to sustain. • Open interest is rising slowly → tape is more spot-led than leverage-led (healthier, but needs follow-through). • DVOL slightly elevated + 25Δ skew tilted to puts → market is defensive into the headline; easy to fade if spot inflows don’t show. • ETF volumes are moderate (IBIT/FBTC/ETHA) → by themselves they don’t signal a mega inflow day. What would push odds toward continuation (BTC or mini-alts) • 3:50–4:00 ET auctions print big in IBIT/FBTC/ETHA. • EOD net flows ≥ $300–500M (bonus if ETH also prints strong). • Post-headline vol crush (DVOL ↓), skew normalizes, funding ≤ 0.01%, OI up gradually (spot-led), and acceptance above resistance. What would keep/raise sell-the-news risk • Weak/negative EOD flows. • Break attempts with funding ≥ 0.03% and OI ramping (crowded longs). • DVOL ↑ and skew leans further to puts during the spike. • Repeated rejections near BTC resistance (e.g., ~116–117k) with upper wicks. 1-Minute Checklist (before & after the announcement) 1 Spot vs perps: if spot leads and funding stays low, I prefer buying pullbacks over chasing. 2 DVOL / Skew: DVOL down + skew normalizing ⇒ continuation; DVOL up + skew to puts ⇒ fade more likely. 3 ETFs: watch closing-hour volume today; then confirm EOD net flows tonight: ◦ ≥ $300–500M ⇒ I carry a long/buy-the-dip bias into D+1. ◦ ≤ 0 ⇒ I favor fading resistance into D+1. Operational stance (how I’ll trade it) • Base into the headline: cautious. I won’t chase the first candle. • Fade setup: if the breakout comes with funding/OI spiking and wicks near resistance, I treat it as spike-and-fadeback into the prior range (tight risk). • Continuation setup: if I see vol crush + strong flows and acceptance above resistance, I flip to continuation mode and buy dips, with invalidation below the most recent reclaimed level. This is my real-time framework, not financial advice. I’ll update the bias if the auction and EOD flows materially change the picture.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by matoxview
BTC 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 39👋🏻 Hey everyone! How’s it going? Hope you’re all doing well. ❄️ Welcome to Crypto Winter. ⏰ Today, we’ll be analyzing BTCUSDT and exploring its potential opportunities. 👀 On the 1-hour timeframe for Bitcoin, we observe that after breaking the $116,000 zone, the price moved upward and buyers drove it to the $117,000 level. Then, sellers pushed the price back down to roughly the same level as yesterday. Currently, Bitcoin has two important triggers: one at $116,860 and another at $114,660. With a breakout of these levels, we can take positions more confidently. I don’t have a specific short scenario in mind because long positions, if taken, could continue with the news of interest rate cuts, and we could even add several funding levels to our positions. 🧮 On the RSI, the two critical zones are 70 and 38. If momentum breaks either, Bitcoin could move with much more strength. 🕯 The size and volume of green candles have increased significantly after micro-buyers entered. However, due to the interest rate cut news and upcoming scenarios, this kind of movement and these candles may not continue. One notable point on the chart is that the buying pressure has caused the size, volume, and number of green candles to be smaller, yet they produce larger moves. Our momentum for further upward movement is stronger and more powerful. 🔴 Today’s news could affect Bitcoin’s future price, so try to take a position aligned with the news. Although it seems risky, Bitcoin’s volatility relative to other coins is lower on news days, meaning less risk for traders. 🧠 There are two scenarios for entering a Bitcoin position: 1️⃣ Place a stop-buy at $116,850 to enter when the stop triggers. The stop size would be 2–3%, which is relatively large, delaying risk-to-reward, and there is a chance the scenario fails and the stop is hit. 2️⃣ Wait for a 15-minute candle setup (Indecision + SMA + Low Volume) to enter, allowing a smaller stop at roughly the same level. This still carries the risk of being stopped out quickly. Risk management is essential — if we follow it today, nothing adverse should happen. ❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
Long
by FireHoseReel
BTC Eyes 120K but 115K Support is the Last LineCRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently trading around 116K after a strong run-up. The chart shows a rising wedge pattern forming, with immediate support sitting near 115K. If this level holds, BTC could make another push toward the upper resistance zone around 120K. On the flip side, a breakdown below 115K may trigger a short-term correction, sending price lower before bulls step back in. Overall, BTC is in a critical zone, holding support keeps the bullish momentum alive, but a rejection at resistance could slow things down. DYOR, NFA Stay tuned for more update
Long
by unichartz
USDT.D Analysis 1H - Key Triggers Ahead👋🏻 Hey everyone! How’s it going? Hope you’re all doing well. ❄️ Welcome to Crypto Winter. ⏰ Today, we’ll be analyzing Coin X and exploring its potential opportunities. 👀 On the 1H Tether dominance chart we can see that after reacting to the 4.20% zone, dominance bounced upward and built a solid base that confirms bullish momentum for the market. Right now, it’s trapped between two key levels: resistance at 4.34% and support at 4.26%. A clean break of either side should give us the market direction. Keep in mind that today’s news brings multiple scenarios into play. 🧮 On RSI, the two critical zones are 58 and 30. If momentum breaks through either, Tether dominance could move with much more strength. 🕯 After the 4.20% bounce, the green candles have grown larger, but now the uptrend shows signs of weakness. Candles forming near these support and resistance zones will be crucial in reading the next move — for example, a red indecision candle on AVAX might line up with a small bullish indecision elsewhere, and the hidden meaning behind that is what matters. 🔴 As for today’s fundamentals, the outlook is mixed. Bullish scenarios depend on a step-by-step rate cut, and if cuts continue, more Tether will flow out into the market. 🧠 For futures trading, Tether dominance is very useful. If dominance breaks down through 4.26% or 4.20%, we can use a candle setup or stop-buy to enter. My personal take: if you didn’t open a position yesterday, you can still take a very low-risk entry here on an altcoin from your watchlist. Keep risk around 0.25% — that would be ideal. ❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by FireHoseReel
ETH Awaits Fed Decision, High Volatility AheadCRYPTOCAP:ETH Update Back on August 21, when news broke about a possible Fed rate cut on September 17, ETH instantly jumped nearly 14%. Fast forward to today, the actual announcement is scheduled for 2 PM ET, and the market is on edge. There’s a strong probability of a rate cut, which could inject fresh momentum and push ETH higher. But if the Fed keeps rates unchanged, we could see a sharp downside correction as risk assets react. Best approach right now? Stay patient. Wait for the full announcement from Powell, his tone will matter as much as the numbers. Extreme volatility is expected around that time, so caution is key. DYOR, NFA #PEACE
Long
by unichartz
1
Gold short-term support levels to watch for FOMCInitial support comes in at $3655/50 area, followed by $3564, before the focus turns to the more significant $3,500 level. Will we see a dip to any of these levels today, and get a bounce? Well, a lot depends on the FOMC. Yesterday saw sold and stock averages both pulled back in unison from record highs ahead of the FOMC rate decision, suggesting the move was driven by profit-taking. The dollar’s renewed drop against the yen and yuan today suggests the gold selling may be limited and the metal could even rally to a new high if the Fed turns out to be a little more on the dovish side of things today. From a macro point of view, today's housing market data disappointed with both housing starts and building permits fall. This comes on the back of retail sales data from yesterday, which rose more than expected, but does it matter? Well, the retails data suggests it is not all doom and gloom out there, but this is probably too little too late to prevent a rate cut today. The Fed has clearly signalled it will trim rates and everyone expects them to do so. But the recent dollar selling was never about this week’s likely rate cut. It was all about whether we will get one or two more cuts before the year is out. Well, the jury is still out on that, as surely one retail sales report is unlikely to sway the Fed in one or the other direction. So, from a rate cut perspective, traders may take the retail sales beat in their stride and continue to buy dips in foreign currencies and gold. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREX.com
ES (SPX) Analyses for Wed, Sep 17 - FOMC - Key ZonesBias: The weekly and daily trends are staying positive, with higher highs and higher lows. We're in an uptrend, but right now, we're hitting some resistance instead of pushing into new territory. Price-wise, we’re stuck in a range between two key levels: there’s some overhead resistance at 6678–6683 (that's the top of yesterday’s range and where things first started to react) and 6703 (which is a key point to watch). On the flip side, the lower support level is at 6653–6658 (this was the high from last week, and often when we retest it, it leads to buying). Here’s what it all means: If we can stay above 6653–6658 and get rejected around 6678–6683, it might be a good idea to take some short positions back down to that support level. If we do manage to reclaim the lower support after a dip or if we break above 6703, we could continue upward to around 6720–6724, then maybe 6744–6750, and even 6760–6765. If the bias shifts, like if we see price acceptance below 6653, that could signal a sell-off targeting 6643, then 6627, and possibly down to 6611–6618. On the other hand, if we see acceptance above 6703, it could bring back some long momentum. Setups (Level-KZ 15m→5m→1m) LONG — Sweep & Reclaim at 6653–6658 (LIS) Idea: Liquidity grab into LIS, then buyers step back in. 15m trigger: Wick through 6653–6658 that closes back ≥ 6658. 5m confirm: Re-close up through 6664–6666 with a higher low. 1m entry: First HL pullback that holds 6659–6662. Hard SL: Below the 15m sweep wick ±0.25–0.50. • Targets: TP1 6678–6683, TP2 6703, TP3 6720–6724 (leave runner for 6744–6750). SHORT — Rejection Fade at 6678–6683 (overhead) Idea: First test into the box top fails; sell the rally back inside. 15m trigger: Probe 6678–6683 that closes back ≤ 6675. 5m confirm: Lower high + re-close down through 6672–6674. 1m entry: First LH retest 6679–6682 that fails. Hard SL: Above the 15m rejection wick ±0.25–0.50. • Targets: TP1 6666–6668, TP2 6653–6658, TP3 6638–6643. • Skip if TP1 < 2.0R versus your wick stop. We might see some compression before the FOMC meeting, especially in the early afternoon. It’s probably best to just react to any trades at the edges. The real action usually kicks off between 2:00 and 2:35 pm when the statement comes out and the Q&A starts. In the morning, there’ll be some mixed signals with housing data at 8:30, EIA at 10:30, and the VIX settling, which could cause some quick, random spikes. Just treat those as noise unless they really break through your levels. And don’t forget, the flows leading into Friday’s OPEX can really amp up the swings after the FOMC. The gamma profile tends to reset after the press conference too.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
7
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Fed Day: All eyes on the FOMC decision + Powell press conference — this will lock in the September rate path. 📉 Positioning risk: Funds lightened up into Tuesday’s Retail Sales; volatility likely post-Fed. 💻 Tech leadership in focus: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , and AI plays driving AMEX:XLK flows ahead of macro. 🛢️ Crude swings: Energy price stability remains an inflation sentiment wildcard. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Aug) ⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Policy Decision + SEP (dot plot) ⏰ 🚩 2:30 PM — Powell Press Conference ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #Fed #housing #energy #bonds #Dollar #megacaps
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao