On the 24th April the CAC 40 made a huge gap up, from 5050 to 5260. An incredible 4%. In fact it is the largest gap we can see historically as far back as 2008. Gaps, as trades know, 'always' get filled. Statistically its more like 90% of the time. Whether bullish or bearish on the European reflation story, this trade is the same.. French stocks are likely to...
This is an updated chart, taking into consideration other factors which are currently unfolding on the EUR/USD. The 200-SMA line has come close to the price action, possibly signifying a bounce to higher prices. However, there is a strong trend line nearby, where many other buyers will also be waiting. This area of demand can help facilitate more downward price...
Marcon will win in France and FED will not hike rates. My prediction for XAUUSD is downward move.
The french election. Who will win? Macron or Le Pen? What does Le pen want with France? Le pen is very anti EU (Europian Union), she believe that France should leave the EU. But why this? She is the partys "Front National" presidential candidate. This polical party supports nationalism, which (in this situation) means that the focus should be on France only, with...
Two days before the first round of the presidential elections (23 April), the uncertainty remains high. Take the opportunity of a risk-friendly scenario or a strong risk aversion scenario by pending orders of both sides. The nightmare scenario for the market would be a second round between Far-left and Far-right candidates. Trade the EUR against JPY, considering...
EURGBP at the end of the week sitting at the bottom of a well tested range. For the next 10 days, markets are likely to be preoccupied with Euro uncertainty regarding the French elections, and so are unlikely to see a significant BreakOut until after the 23rd, and potentially the 7th of May. I plan on buying at around .8445, with a first profit take at the top of...
I have a powerful signal here, bought breaking yesterday's high today. I had given up on Euro longs, and sold in disgust, which is a strong 'self-contrarian' signal. Whenever it happens, take heed, and act with haste after the market breaks a previous day high or low, since your exit. If you don't take the trade back, you will probably face one of those times when...
1) Technical: Elliott Wave 2) Fundamental: Ref (www.investing.com) "Recent polls show Le Pen in the lead even in a race without Bayou, but Bayou is proposing an alliance with Macron and investors are hopeful that this would reduce Le Pen’s chance of victory. Scandal-laden Filion is still ahead of Macron so at the end of the day, we’re not sure how much difference...
The prospect of a likely victory of market friendly candidate in France (Macron) would redirect attention to ECB policy normalization and imply a bullish impact on EUR in the middle term. However a victory of Le Pen would drive to an signficant bearish impact on EUR in the short term and support the YEN, as this currency is a big beneficiary of risk aversion. The...
The dax has been retesting the 12000 mark in the wawe of usd growth following trump speach before the congress . That the Pivot point beetween making new high and confirming the uptrend or it s going to range for a while and then going back down . Seeing the dax working this level would make belive that something its going to decide for it's faith , either way ,...
e/u had very nice run friday afternoon during new york session , and gain more than a 100 pips wich is volatility we have not been seeing for some time . in a near future ( 58 days and counting ) first round of french election is going to weight a lot on the euro and might be the catalysis we all where looking for some time , but until then we very much could be...
Last thursday AFP reported earnings for Q4 2016. The market took it well and the chart shows a breakaway gap on high volume (not visible in chart as this is volume data from ChiX, not Euronext where most trading takes place). The breakaway followed a higher bottom at 4.80, which is also a bullish sign. I entered a long position after open on friday with a stop at...
GBPUSD is really interesting here, with potential upside, together with the dollar, if Brexit ends up being a positive in the long term. It has a lot of shock value, and I'd like to play it like a contrarian once viable. Right now, I think we can have a repeat of the 2009 bottom, and a big sideways range, but first we could see a rapid short squeeze rally, and a...
Hello My friends! French index CAC Just Little fundamental analis:) Oland dont meet with Putin. France dont make money on Mistral deal and Poland asked Ollande "not hysteria" because of the failure to buy helicopters from France. Just disappointment. But in technical analysis need go up until lvel 78.6 and after fall I think market will start fall in...
The french blue chip Total (FP, 111b € of Market Cap), from the oil industry, is inside a bearish dynamic since June 2014. This is characterized by lower tops and lower bottoms. Currently, the buyers seemed to have taken back the advantage, but the Major resistance area at 45.00€ is still preventing the stock from going higher . As long as this level is not...
The CAC40 is consolidating between 4300 and 4520 pts since the middle of July. The US indices are currently showing weaknesses, and so does the french equity market. The resistance area at 4550, doubled with the other one at 4520, definitely constitute a barrage for the buyers to go higher. The bearish forces are getting a bit stronger as weeks pass, as shown by...
FRA40 seems to be getting challenged at the swing, sign of a drop comming the week ahead.
We have downtrends in all timeframes except the daily in the France ETF. Currently price is about to break below the yearly downtrend mode, which if it happens could start a big slide down. The daily suggests a short is optimal here, risking a rally to pre-Brexit highs at 24.70, targets can be initially the monthly one at 19.22, but eventually this could evolve...