buy GOLDthis is the right set up to make profits on Gold, 3699 is the key price , once your price approche it we will be waiting for the right volume to go long
Fundamental Analysis
Still bearish on EurUsd.After weeks of price being in relatively the same range, I think this week and the following weeks will finally see price start to trend. I will give a more detailed view of my analysis later. Stay tuned!
Look out for the 1.1800 level. I'd like to see price test that level before it continues selling.
Forex Weekly Review: Fundamental analysis.The week starting Monday 15 September was a week of two halves for the USD.
Sentiment for the dollar has been growing more and more subdued in anticipation of a faster pace of rate cuts. And USD selling continued during Monday and Tuesday, in anticipation of a 'dovish' FOMC outcome.
Perhaps the market was a little over zealous though, although the FOMC did indeed provide a rate cut, combined with a much more dovish rhetoric than a few months ago. Mr POWELL'S balanced approach disappointed USD bears. The USD and US YIELDS rose for the remainder of the week.
Ultimately, the concenciuos appears to be that it was a final hurrah bout of USD strength, before weakening into year end. I would tend to agree with that narrative, but I'll let the USD itself and US YIELDS suggest whether the dollar is longable or shortable this coming week. It'll be interesting to see if the US 10 YEAR can get back above 4.2.
All things considered, the market liked Mr POWELL'S narrative suggesting the US economy is in good shape, (for now) the softening labour market is not too much of a concern and the 'soft landing' native remains as the S&P continues to push all time highs. Which means the JPY 'should' be shortable. I say 'should' because the BOJ held its own rate meeting this week. The interest rate 'hold' was initially seen as hawkish. But a toning down of rate hike expectations during the press conference saw JPY gains reverse. And (for now) I continue to view the JPY as a short possibility.
The other currency usually associated as a short in a risk on environment (the CHF) continues to be stubbornly strong. Possibly hanging on to the coat tail of the EUR, but it does appear the CHF has it's own underlying fundamental strength. And my mind keeps wandering back to the article I read a few months ago about the SNB benefiting from relativity high holdings of gold. It does make sense as the price of gold continues to skyrocket.
There were two other rate decisions of note this week . A BOC cut and a BOE hold. Both with very limited forward guidance, which leads me to assume my status quo thoughts of more cuts sooner from the BOC and more cuts but at a slower pace from the BOE. Although the CAD did have a surprise boost from 'tariff talk' on Friday. And UK fiscal concerns continue to keep any GBP positivity on a knife edge.
On a personal note, it was a week of three trades. Unusually, two in one day when I tried to the advance of negative CAD sentiment and positive UK data on Tuesday, with two GBP CAD long trades. One stopped out and one hit profit.
I then placed a JPY short, post BOJ press conference, when I felt the initial JPY strength would reverse. The trade was eventually closed at break even following a meek US open.
I begin the new week with a tentative bias for risk on trades. Whether the USD takes part as a long or a short is up in the air.
Results:
Trade 1: GBP CAD -1
Trade 2: GBP CAD +1.5
Trade 3: AUD JPY: 0
Total = +0.5%
XAUUSD Update – September 22, 2025💰 Gold Spot | 15min + 1H Key Levels & Scenarios
Price is currently testing the $3,690–$3,695 zone, approaching a 1H resistance area. This is a crucial decision point. Watch for signs of bullish breakout or bearish rejection from this zone.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $3,694.95 / $3,703.21 / $3,706.80
Support: $3,681.04 / $3,680.65 / $3,676.65
Potential Entry: Marked at $3,680–$3,681 zone (liquidity grab + structure shift)
🧠 Fundamentals in Play:
📉 Fed maintains hawkish tone – strong USD pressuring gold.
📊 Market awaiting next inflation data – potential catalyst for breakout or rejection.
💥 Geopolitical tensions and risk sentiment still provide safe-haven bids for XAU.
🔄 Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout → Clean break above $3,695 → Targeting $3,703+
Bearish Rejection → Reversal from resistance → Downside targets $3,681 → $3,676
⚠️ Stay patient. Watch for confirmation before entries. Let the price action guide you.
Greetings,
MrYounity
XAUUSD| POSSIBLE SELL MOVE AFTER NEWS EFFECT I am closely monitoring a significant price zone after observing that the market pushed upward, taking out liquidity above the order block (OB) before closing back below it. This movement appears to be influenced by recent news. As the price stabilizes, I am considering a selling opportunity, but only under specific conditions:
1. The price must first sweep Friday's high, then touch and react from the daily order block.
2. There should be a clear change of character (CHOCH) or break of structure (BOS) on the 1-hour chart.
3. A refined entry signal must be established on the 15-minute chart.
4. Execution of the trade can be either through limit orders or instant execution.
If these criteria are met, I will proceed with the trade. Otherwise, I will remain sidelines and wait for the London session, focusing on the potential for Asian liquidity.
[LULU] Investment idea - First entryI start to accumulate shares at this level for the long terme and will be watching the one below too if it happen.
Solid fundamentals on this stock with huge potential regarding the sector.
Great Trade !
Peso resilience tested ahead of Banxico decision USD/MXN has staged a rebound after sliding to multi-week lows near 18.20. On the daily chart, price bounced off the lower Bollinger Band and is now testing the 18.40–18.45 zone.
This area also aligns with the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel that has guided the selloff through September.
A clean break above 18.45 could be the first sign of momentum shifting, opening the way toward 18.65 and the mid-Bollinger Band near 18.75. The broader trend, however, might still be bearish.
For now, support remains firm at 18.25–18.20. A failure to hold that floor could bring renewed pressure, exposing 18.10 and the psychological 18.00 level.
That technical setup frames the importance of Banxico’s upcoming decision. All 24 analysts surveyed by Reuters expect a 25-basis-point cut to 7.50%. While headline inflation has eased, August CPI data showed that core pressures are proving sticky, limiting the space for more aggressive easing.
Trade policy is also adding uncertainty. Mexico’s Economy Minister confirmed plans to lift tariffs on imported light vehicles and auto parts, raising duties on cars from Asia — particularly China — from 20% to 50%. These measures echo protectionist steps seen under the Trump administration and could complicate Mexico’s trade outlook at a sensitive time, adding volatility to peso trading.
For traders, the key question is whether the peso’s resilience will hold if Banxico delivers a cut as expected. With technical levels tightening around 18.25–18.45, the combination of policy tone and tariff rhetoric could be the catalyst for a decisive breakout or renewed downside.
AUDJPY ENTRY POINTAUDJPY is in a bullish trend which broke structure but we are waiting for a liquidity grab into our POI for a potential continuation buy.
NZDUSD Strong Bearish leg. and Weekly barrish starting According to COT Report and Technical prospective NZDUSD Seems bearish. Maybe they will retrace from OB Level and then create Real Move. Wait to come price to premium zoon for sell!
OKLO Mania - Time to fade?Why the recent parabolic move?... Friday US-UK nuclear energy deal called the Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear Energy. The deal is meant to speed up the use of next-generation nuclear technologies like OKLO.
I have nothing bad to say about the company. I recommended buying it earlier this year in March when it was trading in the $20-$30 range (see related publication).
These types of parabolic moves without meaningful fundamental improvement are not super rare, but the pendulum has swung pretty hard here and I think in the next 2 weeks we'll be at a lower price, perhaps still above $100. I don't think it will be necessary short selling but perhaps pull back from either another offering, insider trading, or locking in some profit at these levels.
Insider selling news:
www.barrons.com
THE UNTOLD STORY OF 2025: The Looming US Natural Gas SqueezeHaving examined the broader oil picture, let's turn our focus to natural gas.
Unlike oil, the US natural gas market is setting up for a potential sharp price increase in the near future. The US gas market is a relatively isolated phenomenon. Even if the rest of the world experiences falling energy prices and a widespread economic crisis, the situation in the US could be the complete opposite. Let's break down why.
From a technical perspective, as with oil, I believe we established an absolute price floor in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic crushed prices that were already low due to a gas glut caused by the shale revolution and soaring production.
The 2022 price spike, while sharp and emotionally driven by the war in Ukraine and the European energy crisis, failed to reach the peaks seen in international LNG prices. This was simply because the US market is not fully integrated with the global market. LNG export capacity was insufficient to pull massive volumes of US gas abroad; it remained trapped domestically.
Subsequently, prices fell back to their previous lows.
However, we now appear to be seeing the initial waves of a new cycle forming. A falling wedge or ending diagonal pattern currently developing could signal the sharp, explosive move that typically follows such a pattern.
Several fundamental factors support this thesis:
Growing LNG Exports: New LNG export projects are starting to draw more and more gas away from domestic supply.
Soaring Power Demand: Demand for electricity generation from data centers (for cryptocurrency and AI) is rising dramatically.
Stagnant Production: Gas production has plateaued and is not growing.
The End of an Era?: A recent EIA report has sparked debate about the possible end of the shale gas and oil boom in the US, suggesting prime drilling locations are dwindling.
Add an impending financial crisis and the potential for a credit crunch that the Fed may be unable to liquify this time around (a topic for a separate analysis), and you have a recipe for a perfect storm in the US market.
Another critical factor is that US drilling and extraction are highly capital-intensive. Fracking requires significant working capital (equipment, materials) and involves high operational expenditures. This is all financed with debt. For the oil sector to remain profitable, it requires sustained prices above $60 per barrel.
If oil prices fall and production declines—and we know the rig count is already dropping—the production of associated gas will also fall.
If industry financing dries up, a wave of bankruptcies will begin. Highly leveraged small operators will be forced out of business, shutting in their gas production as they go.
US prices would then skyrocket. Major players would begin to acquire struggling smaller companies, snapping up their assets and drilling rights at a discount, positioning themselves for the next cycle.
USDJPY H1 NEW OUTLOOK According to H1 analysis USDJPY market is in Buying pressure from last day of weekend now market almost at RESISTANCE LEVEL market will be touch the resistance level then it will be falling
so if you want then go short from resistance level is best for you be careful use money management
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
REGARD ALBERT
AUDUSD | Bearish Rejection from Order Block – Targeting Sell-SidHello Billionaires!!
In EURUSD D1 Projection we know the Price swept the Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) and tapped into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block (OB), showing signs of rejection. This aligns with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) for a potential bearish move.
🔹 Key Points:
Liquidity grab above recent highs (BSL).
FVG + OB acting as a rejection zone.
Price expected to target the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL).
Balanced Price Range (BPR) around 0.6450 serves as a strong downside target.
Bearish bias remains valid as long as price stays below the OB/FVG zone.
HYPE Swing Long IdeaHYPE Swing Long Idea
📊 Market Sentiment
FED has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, starting with a 0.25% cut in September, with two more 0.25% cuts expected in the coming months. Additionally, institutional liquidity inflows have accelerated as the U.S. officially adopts crypto as part of its reserves. While inflation remains elevated, the weakening labor market is forcing the FED to ease, driving more capital into risk-on assets.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price broke the HTF Key Level and closed above, leading to price discovery.
It is also supported by the HTF Bullish Trendline.
Currently, price is retracing from its discovery highs.
📌 Game Plan
1-Retest of HTF Key Level at $50
2-Retest of HTF Bullish Trendline
3-Possible retrace into Fibonacci EQ (discount zone) at $47.55
🎯 Setup Trigger
• 4H break of structure after retest
• Alternative: Daily close back above HTF Bullish Trendline in case of deviation (deviation entry method)
📋 Trade Management
Stoploss: Below the 4H swing low that breaks structure
Target: $59.5 (ATH)
Carrying 25% runner with stop at breakeven for extended gains
💬 Like, follow, and comment if you find this setup valuable!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
Cardano Whales $500 Million ADA Selling To Delay Price Rise To $Cardano’s price sits at $0.888 at press time, holding slightly above the $0.880 support. However, the current environment suggests a risk of losing this critical level if bearish sentiment intensifies. The vulnerability to downside remains clear as whale selling persists.
Should ADA fall through $0.880, the next key support sits at $0.837. A drop to this level would extend recent losses and may prompt further liquidation from smaller holders, creating additional downward pressure. This could stall ADA’s path to recovery.
Conversely, a successful bounce off $0.880 could open a short-term rally toward $0.931. Flipping this resistance into support would improve market sentiment, enabling ADA to target $0.962. Breaking this barrier would invalidate the bearish thesis and bring Cardano closer to $1.
Ethereum Price Steady at $4,500—Here’s What’s Ahead For ETHEthereum’s price is currently trading at $4,468, just shy of the $4,500 resistance. The altcoin has been consolidating near this level, showing resilience even as broader market trends remain mixed.
Given the supportive market sentiment and accumulation trend, Ethereum is poised to reclaim $4,500 as a support floor. Successfully flipping this level could pave the way for ETH to challenge the $4,775 resistance in the coming days.
However, downside risks remain if bearish pressure builds. In such a scenario, Ethereum could lose footing and slip to the $4,307 support level. A drop to this zone would invalidate the bullish thesis temporarily and deepen potential investor losses
US DOLLAR War Map stays simple right nowThe dollar’s been sliding for months, but we finally saw the range lows taken out after the FOMC spike, and that sets up the next move.
Here’s how I’m reading it:
Rotation lower is still the logical path unless politics or surprise news change the game.
On the DXY chart, I’m watching for a heavy-volume node to act as a target for a short-term pullback higher.
For cross-pairs, that means I’ll look for short setups while using the recent bullish dollar lows as day-to-day reference points.
Key level to watch: around 98.7, where heavy bearish order-flow has been building.
If the market keeps moving, it’s a straightforward trade plan: stay positive, take intraday signals, and let the bigger down-cycle play out.
Dogecoin $DOGE dominance is reversing.Dogecoin dominance is nearing completion of a breakout from a falling trend and retest ahead of a major upward wave.
US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025
📊 Chart Context
Current Yield: \~4.50%
Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones.
📉 Key Technical Observations
Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise)
TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance.
TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone.
TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection)
Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate Cuts / Recession)
Support 1 (3.91%): 23.6% Fib retracement, key structural demand.
Support 2 (3.22%): 38.2% retracement
Support 3 (2.74%): 48.6%
Support 4 (2.12%): 61.8%
Support 5 (1.33%): 78.6%
Forecast Scenarios (Based on Arrow Colors & Pathways):
Red Boxes & Zones: Critical Resistance / Reaction Zones
These are strong confluence levels that may trigger pullbacks before continuation.
Green Arrows – Bullish Projection with Pullbacks
Scenario A: Price may rally toward the 5.0% TP1 zone but experience a temporary pullback before continuing toward the 6.10% TP2 zone.
Scenario B: After a short-term correction near 6.10%, if bullish momentum sustains, yield may spike toward the 7.70–7.91% TP3 zone.
These movements reflect a stair-step advance with corrective legs between key levels — bullish macro outlook with intermittent risk events.
Pink Arrows – Bearish Pullbacks & Correction Phases:
Scenario A: Initial rejection from current zone (~4.5%) may send yields down to the 3.91% support confluence.
Scenario B: If support at 3.91% fails, yields may further retrace to 3.22% or 2.74%, activating the lower fib retracement zones.
After stabilizing in these zones, a rebound may begin and realign with the broader bullish structure.
These pink arrows suggest that even in bullish macro cycles, the market may correct deeply before resuming its ascent.
Macro & Fundamental Context:
1.Fed Pivot Dynamics: With inflation cooling and unemployment ticking higher, markets price in possible Fed rate cuts by late 2025.
2.Bond Demand Outlook: Recession fears and de-risking scenarios trigger massive flows into long-term Treasuries, pulling yields lower.
3.Global Liquidity Conditions: Lower yields = increased liquidity = favorable conditions for crypto, gold, and risk assets.
4.Hawkish Risk: Any oil shock or CPI surprise can pause or reverse easing expectations, pushing yields up.
Effects on Gold & Crypto (as scenarios play out):
↗ If US10Y Yields RISE to 6% or 7.7% (TP2/TP3)
* Gold: Likely to suffer due to rising real yields; institutional demand weakens.
* Crypto: Bearish; risk assets sell off amid higher opportunity cost and tighter liquidity.
* Dollar (DXY): May strengthen, applying more pressure on gold & crypto.
* Strategy: Favor defensive positioning. Look for shorting rallies or hedge exposures in BTC, ETH, and high-beta alts.
↘ If US10Y Yields FALL toward 3.2% to 2.1% (Support 2–4):
* Gold: Bullish. Lower yields reduce holding costs and boost safe-haven appeal.
* Crypto: Bullish. Liquidity rotation into high-risk assets often follows easing cycles.
* DXY: Likely to weaken, further supporting BTC and altcoins.
* Strategy: Look to accumulate crypto during dips. Gold may offer breakout opportunities.
Rangebound Near 4.5% (Current Zone):
* Gold: Mixed; capped upside until clear direction emerges.
* Crypto: Ranges or whipsaws. Watch for breakout signals from BTC.D and TOTAL3.
* Strategy: Stay cautious. Monitor DXY and macro events for confirmation.
Related Reference Charts
TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap Weekly
BTC.D – Bitcoin Dominance Weekly
Altseason Index Proxy (TOTAL3 / BTC.D) Weekly TF
Symbol & Timeframe:
* **Symbol**: CRYPTOCAP\:TOTAL3 / CRYPTOCAP\:BTC.D
* **Timeframe**: Weekly (1W),
* **Purpose**: A clean, data-driven proxy for detecting altseason momentum
Technical Structure:
✅ Key Support Zones
* **13.47B (61.8% Fib)**: Critical golden zone; current price consolidation area
* **12.45B (50.0% Fib)**: Lower bound of golden zone
* **11.00B**: Historical support zone
* **8.15B (0.0%)**: Absolute bottom of retracement range
🔹 Hidden Bullish Divergence
* **MACD Histogram & Signal Lines** show hidden bullish divergence
* Price action forming **higher lows** while MACD makes **lower lows**
* Indicates trend continuation potential
🔢 Fibonacci Targets
TP1: 16.8B (100.0%)
TP2: 22.2B (161.8%)
TP3: 30.7B (261.8%)
🔄 Expected Path
* Potential short-term correction toward 12.4B followed by a breakout
* Bullish continuation path sketched with progressive Fib targets
📈 Macro & Fundamental Confluence
📉 Liquidity and Monetary Easing
* Global monetary policy is easing (e.g., Fed pivot expected mid-2025)
* Increased liquidity historically precedes strong altcoin rallies
BTC Dominance Decline
* BTC.D rolling down from long-term highs
* Signals beginning of capital rotation into altcoins
🚀 Emerging Narratives
* Rise of L2s (e.g., Base, zkSync), AI tokens, real-world asset protocols
* Fresh narratives tend to amplify altseason rotations
💼 Institutional Tailwinds
* Spot ETH ETF approvals pave way for alt ETF flows
* Regulatory clarity expected to reduce uncertainty in late 2025
Related Reference Charts:
🌐 TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC & ETH)
📊 BTC Dominance (BTC.D)
These charts offer standalone confirmation of:
Altcoin strength forming on TOTAL3
BTC dominance facing structural resistance
Composite Altseason Thesis:
1. Liquidity injections + halving = BTC rally
2. BTC.D breakdown + TOTAL3 support = altcoin strength
3. Technical confirmations: hidden divergence, fib confluence
4. Narrative and regulatory catalysts = widespread rotation
**Conclusion**:
We are entering a prime zone for altseason acceleration. Price reclaim above 13.47B and continued BTC.D drop will validate bullish thesis. Monitor closely for breakouts past TP1 and momentum into TP2/TP3.
📌 Current status:
- Price rebounding in the 12.45–13.47B Fibonacci zone (50–61.8%)
- Hidden bullish divergence on MACD + ascending price structure
- BTC.D has rolled off 65% resistance — suggesting capital rotation
📊 Altseason Thesis:
1. Post-halving BTC rally → profit dispersion into altcoins
2. Macro conditions (Fed pivot, record liquidity) enabling risk-on environment
3. Technical confirmation via index momentum and fib structure
4. Narrative tailwinds: Layer-2 adoption, AI-crypto, altcoin ETF catalysts
📈 Targets:
- TP1 @ 16.8B (100% Fib)
- TP2 @ 22.2B (161.8% Fib)
- TP3 @ 30.7B (261.8% Fib)
🟢 Key support: 12.45–13.47B zone; breakout + BTC.D collapse = altseason trigger.
JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC : JKH.N0000 : CSEOverview
John Keells Holdings (JKH) is the largest publicly listed company on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), known for its strong fundamentals, high liquidity, and blue-chip status.
Strategy
This trade is based on a technical breakout pattern, supported by the recent upgrade of Sri Lanka’s foreign currency (FC) credit rating from default to CCC+ with a stable outlook.
The ratings upgrade is a significant catalyst for the CSE, as it reopens the market to large foreign institutional funds previously restricted by sovereign risk thresholds. These funds typically favor liquid counters with high capitalization, making JKH a prime beneficiary.
Technical Analysis (Chart Patterns)
On 19th September 2025, JKH initiated a breakout from a descending wedge pattern.
• The upward momentum is expected to continue in the near term, bolstered by the positive sentiment from the ratings upgrade.
• The LKR 24.00 zone represents a key supply area and a potential resistance zone.
Potential Pattern Targets
Initial Pattern Target : LKR 25.60 (> 14% upside)
Extended Breakout (above LKR 24.00) : LKR 27.00 (> 17% upside)
Invalidation
A daily close below the support line marked as ‘0’ would invalidate this bullish setup.
ETH.D (Ethereum Dominance) Weekly TF 2025
Summary:
Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) has likely bottomed after retracing to its 78.6% Fibonacci level (~6.59%) and is showing early signs of a structural reversal. With institutional inflows, growing staking adoption, and key upcoming Ethereum upgrades, ETH.D may reclaim significant market dominance over the next 12–18 months. Our chart anticipates a bounce-pullback-rebound structure, aiming for 3 target zones: TP1 (23.5%), TP2 (30.8%), and TP3 (39%).
Contextual Market Alignment:
This ETH.D bullish bias aligns strongly with our broader market outlook:
TOTAL Market Cap Analysis → Bullish breakout structure, indicating overall crypto expansion.
TOTAL2 (Altcoin Market Cap Ex-BTC) → Bullish retracement completion and extension targets active.
BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) → Bearish confluence zone, suggesting Bitcoin may underperform versus ETH and altcoins, freeing up dominance space for ETH.D to rise.
Chart Context:
This weekly ETH.D chart uses a Fibonacci retracement from the top (~30.81%) to bottom (0%) to identify potential reversal zones. The dominance hit a key support area at the 78.6% Fib retracement (6.59%), showing a reaction that may develop into a reversal. The roadmap includes:
Rebound toward TP1 (23.54% = 23.5%)
Minor correction or consolidation
Breakout continuation toward TP2 (0.0% = 30.8%)
Extension leg targeting TP3 (–27% = 39%)
Key Technical Observations:
Support Levels:
78.60% = 6.59% (bottom support)
88.60%=3.5%
Possible Resistances:
61.80% = 11.77%
48.60% = 15.84%
38.20% = 19.04%
Resistance & TPs:
TP1: 23.54% (23.6% Fib)
TP2: 30.81% (Full retrace = 0%)
TP3: 39.13% (–27% extension)
Current level: ~9.36%
Clear bullish structure with a “bounce–pullback–rebound” sequence
Indicators:
Fibonacci retracements from ~30.81% to 0%
Structural pattern: rounded bottom / double bottom
Hidden bullish divergence forming on weekly timeframe
Fundamental Context:
Institutional Inflows & ETF Dynamics:
Since July 2024’s launch of spot Ether ETFs, inflows have been strong with a 15-day streak totaling approximately $837 million (~25% of total net inflows).
Recently, the SEC approved options trading on spot ETH ETFs (e.g., BlackRock, Grayscale), deepening liquidity and offering hedging mechanisms.
BlackRock is now pushing to add staking functionality allowing yield generation within an ETF wrapper. If approved, this could markedly increase demand.
Staking Growth & On-Chain Supply Dynamics:
27% of ETH is already staked, and ETF inflows could lift that by >10%.
A staking ETF would institutionalize ETH staking: more capital locked, less circulating supply → supply constraints could support dominance and valuation.
Ethereum Backbone in DeFi & RWA:
Ethereum still leads the Real-World Asset (RWA) space: over 50% market share and ~$5–6 billion in assets tokenized on-chain.
Its core infrastructure underlies the majority of DeFi, smart contracts, and stablecoins, reinforcing ETH.D’s structural resilience.
Network Upgrades & Tech Progress:
The Pectra upgrade (mid-2025) is on the horizon, introducing EIP-7251/7702, improving validator flexibility and network usability.
Combined with recent Dencun improvements, Ethereum is becoming cheaper and more efficient, boosting adoption in L2 ecosystems.
Price action & on-chain indicators:
ETH price has surged ~46% in the past 30 days, driven by ETF demand; some analyst forecasts target $3,000–5,000 year-end.
The withdrawal of ~$1.2 billion ETH from exchanges suggests increasing long-term holdings and less selling pressure.
Integrating with Your Technical Setup:
Level: 78.6%–61.8% bounce zones (6–11%)
Fundamental Support: Institutional re-entry via ETFs often begins with accumulation near support.
Level: TP1 at 23.6% (23.5%)
Fundamental Support: Could coincide with ETF inflows + early vesting of staking narratives.
Level: TP2 (~30.8%)
Fundamental Support: Full retrace driven by mass ETF adoption, options trading, and upgrade momentum.
Level: TP3 >39% (–27% ext.)
Fundamental Support: If staking ETF and yield-bearing structures go live, ETH.D could reach new dominance highs.
Summary of Fundamental Catalysts:
Spot ETH ETF inflows (~$800 M), with options exposure adding liquidity.
Upcoming staking ETF (BlackRock, Grayscale) with >10% locked-up supply implications.
Ethereum remains the DeFi and RWA backbone, sustaining structural demand.
Protocol upgrades (Pectra, Dencun) enhance scalability and adoption.
On-chain withdrawal trends show growing holder conviction.
Narrative / Bias & Strategy Implication:
ETH.D has likely completed its correction and is primed for a staged bullish reversal, mirroring prior cycles. The chart forecasts a rally toward TP1, where some short-term profit-taking and rotation to alts may occur (Alts season). Following that, a retrace may set up the next impulsive move to reclaim lost dominance and eventually challenge prior highs.
Time Horizon: Mid-2025 to late 2026
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds.
Chart Context:
Current Price: 98.864
Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476
Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD
Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011
Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based):
TP1: 115.000
TP2: 120.000
TP3: 126.666
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness.
Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal.
Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range.
Indicators:
MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover.
Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low.
Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension.
Fundamental Context:
Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist.
Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven.
Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility.
Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly.
Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening:
Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence
U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD
The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap .
Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness
Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026
Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated.
Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows
With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability
Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds
Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty
Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD
Wall Street’s consensus bearish position.
Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur
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Tariff policy risks
Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD .
Synthesis for Our Biases
A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by:
Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers).
Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation.
Safe-haven capital inflows.
Conversely, risks include:
Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics.
Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline.
A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched.
Philosophical / Narrative View:
The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety.
Bias & Strategy Implication:
1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding.
2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones.
Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios:
Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold.
Correlation Coefficients:
DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation)
DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation)
Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption).
Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines.
Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets.
Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets.
Notes & Disclaimers:
This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
