Just looking for some premium around the market on these up days. Found an "okay" IV in FXE. Trade setup: - 1 FXE Mar 17 101/103/103/105 Iron Fly @ 1.37 DTE: 32 Max Win: $137 Max Loss: $63 Trade Management: 25% Winner or ~ $35; Full loser or will roll out ITM/tested side if on the dance floor. Green is profit zone and vertical black line represents expiration.
... for a 2.25 credit. Although general background IV in FXE isn't high here (it rarely is, comparatively speaking), it's high relative to where it's been in the last six months. Metrics: Max Profit: $225 Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $175 BE's at 98.75/103.25 Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit. Just trying to keep the theta coming in here with what...
As a large time frame trader, my tendency with the Euro or with its stock proxy FXE, has been to short it on strength given the cycle of ECB easing and Fed tightening. The shorts I have taken have been been few and far between since early 2015, having all been taken around EURUSD 1.150. Given the fact that we are at or near long-term support (the Oct 1997/Mar...
Wendell was asking yesterday if this is the best place to do an iron condor. My reply was "I see a strong support around $102.79. If one was already IN a bear call spread, yes, one could leg into the bull put spread creating the condor. Otherwise, I would prob keep an eye on a long here." Caryn S mentions she would look for a strangle "Buy near term Puts buy...
After looking at this selloff in EURUSD I have noted the lows from April 2015 and December 2015. Those two lows have trend line that we are now trading at shown on point 1. IF we get a break below this trend line then I am looking to short down to a target of 1.0170 as a minimum. IF we start to bounce from the current price level I will just wait.
Another breakout is possible for the euro dollar FXE. See the full newsletter here: forum.marketstockoptions.com
Ugh. In spite of abysmal non-farm payrolls, the week ended with the VIX still in sub-15 territory, meaning that less than 45 DTE premium selling in the broader indices is "off the table" for another week in the absence of something earth-shaking occurring in the markets here. This could come in the form of the most recent "Brexit" referendum poll, which shows...
There are basically two variations on a "Super Bear," the first uses a short call to finance a long put debit spread, the other uses a short call credit spread to do the same thing, the difference being that a naked call Super Bear is an undefined risk trade, while a call spread Super Bear is defined. In this particular case, in order to be capital efficient, I'm...
With VIX at sub-14 levels and without much on the earnings calendar that is ideally playable with options from a premium selling standpoint, next week is likely to be a schnooze in the absence of a broad market volatility pop. Nevertheless, there are a couple of plays I might consider. MON: MON announces earnings on April 6th before market open. With an implied...
I don't frequently put on debit spreads, but here's an instrument in which I have a fairly firm directional bias and which, additionally, has extremely low implied volatility at this point in time, making it ideal for either a calendar or a diagonal, both of which benefit from expansions in volatility (which will occur in the instrument assuming further weakness...
Okay, okay, okay ... . So I've griped on occasion about trading FXE as the EURUSD proxy (no volatility, not good for premium selling, blah blah blah). But I can't help but think that I might get an another opportunity to short FXE on one of these weak dollar/risk off spikes. We're three points away in FXE, so I might get a shot ... . Keep an eye on the...
Unfortunately for me I guess, I don't trade spot forex anymore, but I do keep an eye on the majors, particularly EURUSD, because I can trade that using options via FXE, the EURUSD proxy. I have traded FXE a total of five times this year, but it's always been about selling into strength; given Fed tightening and ECB easing, it's always been short with short call...
In my previous FXY chart, I detailed the weekly/monthly time at mode trend signals and with Tim West's help I noticed that the downtrend was expiring during August. After seeing the reaction to this event, I conclude that both FXE and FXY are reversing the longterm downtrend, judging by post pattern behavior after forming a clear bottom. This currently eludes...
FXE has popped up on my radar again, namely because I use Dough's grid, which ranks underlyings by IVR (IV Rank). I just got out of the December rung of a short call vertical ladder I set up several weeks ago on this down move, and FXE has naturally gotten my attention again, with IVR popping to 61 (i.e., its IV is in the 61st percentile of the IV for the past 52...
I previously mentioned some time ago that I had a "sweet spot" price in FXE (the EUR/USD proxy), at which I would consider short call verticals (credit spreads). We're there (at 112.50 or so). Unfortunately, current IVR for FXE is 25, a bit below where I'd want it to be for selling premium. Naturally, I could consider a debit spread here, but I am not...