"Darn it," you say to yourself when you miss an opportunity and have to wait another "who knows" for it present itself again. Immediately post-FOMC, FXE (the Euro/USD proxy) edged up to the "sweet spot" between 112 and 113, only to quickly retreat again toward 110 -- an opportunity missed to milk the instrument one more time before the end of 2015, by the end of...
One of the longer-term trades I've got on is in the Euro/USD proxy ETF, FXE. I've posted a bit previously on my approach to FXE, which would be similar to my trading EUR/USD spot -- sell on strength. In FXE's case, I'm looking to sell on a particular flavor of strength, namely price of the underlying's movement back toward 112.5 or, more ideally, above that in a...
Several weeks ago, I began to set up laddered short call verts in FXE (the EURUSD proxy). My original idea was to set up short call verts at 112/115 at varying expiration from here through December or January based upon the notion that the Fed was poised to tighten and, now, it appears, based upon the possibility that the ECB may initiate additional easing. As I...
Bear Market Territory. MACD (12, 16, 9) poised to cross on the 1H for the first time since 8/17. The Euro is looking safe.
Given the technicals on this chart, it seems like going long EURO is the safest bet. The USD had good run, however with the global markets hinging on depressionary territory, a collapse in the USD would help exports thus helping it maintain Global Reserve Currency status. I've laid out the LONG term target, with this, directional scalping becomes easier, or more...
No position. Expecting a bearish resolve of the ascending wedge. It may be when the 50 MA catches up to price (112ish?) into the rising top line of the wedge. Obvious downtrend, selling rallies always easier than chasing a break downs. RSI and MACD are trending up, needs more time to hit oversold levels before a reverse making price hit new lows. 2016 options...
As a premium seller, I'm looking to work my directional bias in EUR/USD (bearish) in some fashion using the Euro-proxy, FXE. Unfortunately, volatility has all but bled out of FXE, making premium selling less than ideal. So, for the time being, I am waiting and watching for FXE volatility to return. When it does, I'm looking to set up "laddered" short call...
So far, eurusd almost matches up 80% of bearish signal, A retracement to previous support is not bad at all. Target price 1.08215
I have drawn out a guess for how the EURUSD will advance back to the 1.13-1.14 area. I draw reactions from clusters of time and where there is low time and draw a progression of about 16 days similar to the number of days at the mode across March through April. The secondary reason for this chart is today's "Range Expansion Down Day" that started from a "HIGHER...
positive signal: (1) So far, it wins 50ema battle (2) Macd still has plenty of room to go higher negative signal: (1) under previous main trend line projecting signal: (1) could be on its way to D, which is a five wave correction To speak personally, I stay positive on this one, area between 0.382 and 0.5 should be a main course
Tomorrow the capital markets are gonna get a pleasing vol boost on the back of FOMC day. Although there are no surprises expected on this meeting (the most hawkish forecasters still got June as the day of the first rate hike), cues on the liftoff date and the "dot plot" (FFR projections) will move markets big time in either direction. I will bet on the long EUR...
USD has been on a tear without a rest, the EURO is due for a correction, not possible to time the market so I am holding my biggest position Jan 2016 100 call, managing losses/triage until when/if the Euro/FXE recovers.
My previous guess at the course of the dollar was wrong with the long term down trend line and the 50% retraction not effecting price action. I have changed my perception of the formation that has formed. Now we are near the .618 retraction. From my EWT count (always subjective) we are at the 4th wave of lessor degree which supposedly is a good spot for a...
Folks on this site seem to know a lot more about currencies than I do. But here is how the euro looks to me. In EWT (which I recommend you NEVER use by itself) one form of consolidation in a correction is A,B,C with the B wave a 5 wave triangle a,b,c,d,e. I think that is what we likely have here. Often the C wave is some Fib relationship to A such as C=A, C=.62X...
Oversold daily and weekly readings are off the chart. ECB conference tommorrow could mark a S/T low. Worth a shot or avoid all together? Seem tempting to put in a small speculative position for a quick bounce.
Natural area for the EURUSD to consolidate and digest the recent major down move. H/S target achieved at 1.30158 and price bounced off major down trend line that has defined pivot areas of supply and demand since 2013 (dotted black line - see shaded circles for times that price has pivoted off of this line. Would not be surprised to see a counter trend covering...