EARNINGS: TWTR (66/54) announces earnings on Thursday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session to take advantage of post-announcement volatility crush. Pictured here is a 16 delta short strangle in the March cycle with -2.88/2.95 delta/theta metrics and break evens wide of the expected move paying...
After hitting a key area China %0 is failing at key area after a worse than expected GDP # of 6%
After hitting the low 50's twice and being met with high volume selling, the FXI looks to be heading down to the bottom of a mutli-year range at ~29. Where the FXI is headed after that is unknown. We could see a spring form at the bottom of the range then a move up, or a continuation of the down move to the lows of 2008. I think that a continuation of the move to...
Have a great day all
I'm personally not doing a ton here with May opex a mere week away and June at 40 days until expiry, which is a smidge short of that 45 day wheel house I like to use for putting on plays. However, there is "stuff" to do if you're so inclined ... . M (71/54) announces earnings on Wednesday before market open, so you'll want to shoot for a fill on whatever you do...
Have a great day all!
With the U.S. - China trade deal developments ongoing and reportedly staying on positive grounds, the stock markets are globally on the rise in 2019. This is a good time to examine how the heavy Chinese companies are performing. FXI is the index that tracks China's stocks with the largest capitalization. On the monthly (1M) chart we see that since the 2009...
Date released on the 1st show South Africa to be contracting at a faster pace (worsening), express caution!
The Shanghai Composite snagged for a 4.4 percent drop following more than a 20 percent rally this year. However, the fall may just be the beginning after it we showed that the price was hitting mathematical limitations on top of broadening volume issues. "Funny money leading Shanghai Comp higher. We see how this ends. Weekly z-score 2.23. Intermediate TACVOL...
Last July I put out a video suggesting that Brazil was a great opportunity to allocate capital (linked below). At the time the business cycle had turned from contraction to expansion and from a technical standpoint, we were sitting on support. Today, +48.6% higher the risk is rising, the cycle is still relatively strong but our technicals are suggesting we...
On December 26, gold and e-mini futures had a 20-day correlation of -.91 (near inverse), but the 20-day correlation has tightened considerably to .72. Last time we saw this in December 2017 as emerging markets became unhinged, seeing the correlation move from -.78 to .90. It is slightly unnerving because there is virtually no volume in either gold or e-mini...
Looks like a double bottom, but seems like the least resistance is to go down. Let's wait until the trade deal
We speculate that the recent yuan strength is to defend highly leveraged corporates and stem capital outflows. This is taken from "The Powell Put Pause Revisited" by The Macro Strategist: "We also cannot help but speculate the pressure Powell received from President Trump stems to the negotiations with China. As pointed out here, China needs, may not want, a...
Breaking out of its downtrend line, after a double bottom at the 61.8 retracement level of the Feb'16-Jan'18 advance.
Can't imagine how fast these two markets stick back together.