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Alt Season Incoming There is more than 3 parameters that we're getting into the Alt Season. But we only need 3 OTHERS.D as you see made a positive divergence exactly on 0.618 level of long-term fibo and, Touched the up trend-line for first time and showed pump reaction .The only thing we need is to break the down trend-line . ETH.D had made a rising wedge and its going to dump or getting into trading range . BTC.D raised for a couple weeks and its getting to the 0.5 level of retracement fibo and it has potential to make negative divergence .
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.DLong
by MrPro7
DOLLAR (DXY): Things could get ugly next weekIt's all on the charts. The Dollar does not like trenches. Zoom into chart for a better view. This is a probabilistic estimate for a 51% chance movement north. That means there is a 49% chance of no direction north. Prediction this is not (because predictions are 100% for occurrence). What this means is that the probability north should be factored into all instruments that are linked to the DXY strength. Equities indices for example have been profiteering from a relatively weak dollar. It is of course possible that both equities and dollar strength head south. Possible but not likely. If that happens it will be a whole new era. Stay safe. Don't burn cash. May the force be with you! 😁😄
TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
2
BITCOIN: GET READY! This is a 3-day chart of BTC. There is an ABCD pattern and concentration in a possible PRZ. Contrary to popular belief, there is no one 'ABCD' pattern but a series of them. When you see one where AB=CD then there is a potential for reversal. ABCDs do not have to be 100% accurate. The important issue is price action in the potential PRZ. The current picture is not a prediction because I CANNOT possibly know what the future holds. If you are 'getting ready' it's for two things: 1 - a movement north 2 - a movement south. With all trading it is about taking an affordable loss. The 'big money' will be looking at the PRZ too. Small traders need to be extremely careful. BTC is not a great investment due to its particular wildness. Stay safe. Disclaimer : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
S&P500 price action: death cross, greed and FOMOWhat happened last week shocked a whole lot of people. After several days of a bull run, the FED waved a stick at everybody and they retreated in fear! 😱😨 So now what should we expect. We can expect (not predict) the market to move in the direction of its overall sentiment. What's that? It's bullish. The death cross says it's bullish. Everybody can see that. Hope and greed however, have ways of altering perception - even altering the appraisal of reality. Bear markets rarely burn down as smoothly as bull markets would melt up. That's simply because of our eternal hard-wired optimism for the north. So - we know that short-sellers in any market have a harder time than those going long. But choppiness on lower time frames than the daily can be well exploited with experience and training. Have a look at the vid. I welcome reasoned disagreements always because I relish being wrong. Disclaimer : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
TVC:SPX
by Captain_Walker
3
Could your orange future be SILVER instead?The big issues in all trading are: 1 - avoidance of FOMO. 2 - waiting on optimal position. Sound traders - not gamblers - wait in the 'bush'. They stalk their prey for weeks and months. They keep their 'powder' dry. When their prey falls into their kill zone, they are ready to go guns blazing! Ok - so many times prey may not fall into their zone. They've lost nothing. So - I'm that sniper in the bush. I'm taking the rain and floods and insect bites. But if Silver comes into my zone, it's gonna be treated. 🤣
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by Captain_Walker
AUDJPY channel-watchIt's a simple thing - this 6H channel. If you see it it's there (at this point in time). But life is not easy in trading - why are you here? Channels can change their shape. Sometimes they turn into wedges of various types. Price does not 'obey' the channel. We don't really know for sure why these things happen. The channel represents probabilities of price movement. I used to become overly involved with price itself many years ago. That was a mistake. On a 6H channel, there is a lot happening to price within each of the candles. It is important to evaluate the price action within a group of big candles - from lower time frames e.g. 5 to 15 min - to see the momentum and volatility in there. That means you're not just throwing money at it - like dice in a casino. You make your best estimate of direction. Calculate your acceptable loss (aka stop-loss) based on position size, ATR, time momentum, price momentum - and if it is mathematically workable then you enter a trade. LOSS - the most important thing to control. It's the only thing you have control of . Respect the loss. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
GOLD: Possible cup and handleThe situation with Gold is complicated. It looks like a cup and handle, which does not mean that you throw you money at it going long. This is a very wild market. Check it out. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Captain_Walker
DAX: Flashing a clear warning to everybody!Some saw it, some missed it - and some don't want to see it. It's still there: The Death Cross. It is not common for a death cross to appear on daily time frames of indices. When it happens due caution is needed. No predictions here. The probability at this time is greater for the south. How far south? The markets will tell us. The markets have not spoken to me. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WHSELFINVEST:GERMANY40CFDShort
by Captain_Walker
DJI: Get ready - probable trend change for the southSee the video. No more hear on the video. I'll just share my opinions, which is not advice. The DJI proves me more wrong more times than I am right. So what? The issue is about limiting how wrong I am - not how many times I am wrong. New traders - and I was one - struggle to get that idea right. Why? Because in ordinary life one is praised for performance by how many times you're good. Well in trading it's very different. You can be wrong far more times than you are right, and it wouldn't matter. How is that? It's because you limited carefully your loss on the many occasions your were wrong, and you really milked it when on the occasions you were very right. In the end a sound trader in any methodology will find that profitable. Methodologies don’t work 'for you' - get it right; you work the methodology. That means a high level of discipline - which normally comes after much pain and loss. I never avoid talking about losses, because it is 'the most important thing' to control. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
2
DJI: More troubleWhat's happening here? 1 - There is a sharp ATR spike for the down side. 2 - Price has made a struggling rebellion (so far). At each sharp spike of the ATR price has travelled south. That doesn't mean price is bound to do the same again. However the latest spike down is even sharper than the previous two. What this means is that there is a 51% chance of further movement south (leaving 49% chance for the opposite). If price moves south, I do not know how far south as I cannot see into the future. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
GET READY - is the DJI setting up for a major correction?In this video, I compare the movements of the DJI with the DAX. There are no predictions here. What I am saying, is to get ready. Price can move in any direction but there is a 4H ATR trendline indicating that the trend strength is for the south. As I cannot predict the future, this scenario is only relevant up to the time of posting. The markets can do as they like and prove me wrong. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
TROUBLE: In a land down under!The Aussies are in trouble but they may not know it as yet. Caution : this is not a prediction that the AUS200 is about to crash, or will crash. All observations and comment are based on this snapshot in time. Next week this analysis may be irrelevant if the picture changes dramatically. Features on the chart: 1 - A clear sign of rebellion after panic selling. 2 - The rebellion is actually weak, in technical terms. 3 - The retracement up into 61.8 fib was unsurprising. 4 - Price struggled in the first (lower) zone of congestion. 5- Price was rejected twice from the second (higher) zone of congestion. 6. Price remains under the Daily ATR (amber line) - which represents a big change in sentiment at a macro-economic level. I don't trade daily time frames, as they take too long to deliver and they are too risky for me. I would go long and short in a daily time frame bull or bear market on much lower time frames e.g. 3 to 15 min (which in trend following cant take days to complete). Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
2
FACEBOOK: Was the crash a good sign or a bad one?On balance I am not optimistic. I think this market will struggle to close the gap. FB lost $230 billion in one day. The CEO lost $30 billion. I can't even begin to think what that feels like. In the video I compare the current gap of some 30% with a similar gap of ~20% back in 2018. This video is for deep thought. There are no predictions here. Alternative perspectives with reasoning and facts, are most appreciated. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
F
by Captain_Walker
OIL: Contrarian setup aheadEverybody knows that oil is heading to the moon. In recent days, I've heard numerous estimates like $150. However, I think those estimates may be based on panic. Contrarians dare to be wrong, in the face of crowd sentiment - obviously. Everybody can see the same thing on the chart - a well formed rising broadening wedge in a bull market. Expand the chart a bit for a better view. This presents a good probability of bearishness, though price is moving north. For this sort of picture there is an estimated >70% chance of a reversal. What that means is that there is a 30% chance that price will reach the moon. But what traders want is a solid prediction - which I do not do, because I have no ownership of the future. Price doesn't have to get over 90. There is no rule that says wedges have to be 100% complete. But the pattern is sufficiently well formed once there are 3 important points on the upper and lower edges of the wedge. So - in the above I am not saying that 'oil can't go to the moon'. I'm saying there is a lesser probability of that. The red faded line is only to give a picture of what could happen. A line going to the moon would not fit on the chart. 😲😁 I'll be keeping my powder dry, whilst some punch the air. Not a problem. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
O
by Captain_Walker
2
DJI: Why it could go southIn this video I pay attention to 2H and 4H time frames, updating my previous video. I also compare momentum in the 2020 crash with the current picture. In particular I look compare squeeze momentum and RSI patterns in both periods. There is always 'hope'. But hope doesn't rule against market crashes. This is one hypothesis - not a prediction. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
DAX: DEATH CROSS - BEWAREThis is a death cross on the 4H time frame. It may not show on many higher time frames. Some traders wait to see the death cross on the 1D time frame. By the time that develops, the market is ready to rebound. I always stay 'under the hood' of the daily time frame, cuz that's where the action begins. The 4H is my fav time frame to get an idea of what's happening, based only on my experience. The DAX and other indices have basically followed Wall Street and the NASDAQ - they're all interconnected by undersea cables. Some $USD 10 trillion in financial transactions pass in those per day. Anyways the markets have been so heavily pumped that I don't think the FED can save them now. This time around in contrast to 2020, it is so overheated it's now become silly. Air money cannot support markets forever. Right now people are losing billions (collectively) as the markets head south. Will they throw in the towel? Not soon enough. If you're a trend follower the 2H or 4H ATR lines are nice ones to follow. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30
by Captain_Walker
DJI (2H): That mini crash - what does next week hold?Well, there is trouble in the markets for sure. Last week saw a meltdown of about 8% from one peak, on the DJI. My crystal ball broke a long time ago, and I'm not getting a new one from Ebay. 😂 The video outlines how vigilance on the 2H timeframe paid off for anyone who wanted to short this market. So - what about next week (beginning Mon 24th Jan)? No predictions, all you get is probability and some of my experience. (Note the disclaimer below) There is a massive gap between the 2H ATR line and the lowest price point. That in conjunction with the deep dive (much of it being panic), suggests that dip-buyers (unless they've wised up) are gonna plough in. What those folk are largely unaware of is that Wall Street traders can not only sell but short sell. What if price gets above the 2H ATR line next week or the following week? It doesn't mean a lot because there is the mother of 4H and 6H trends in the bigger picture. In fact there has already been a major shift in market sentiment on the 1D time frame. That's something to do with the FED, and interest rates etc. But in technical analysis causal factors are not so important. A grind down further from the current price point is also possible. My overall estimate is for rebellions. It could be very wild out there next week. That's good for scalping if you know what you're doing. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
GETTING READY: Looking back to 2020In this video I look back to early 2020, to see how the 40% collapse in the DJI happened. Am I preparing for a collapse or correction? Yes I am. Preparing does not mean I am predicting. What is see looking back is, that a 2 hour ATR trend south had developed. It is the best fit. I had tried 1H trend but that did not fit well enough, where price would stay below he ATR line. This index has been pumped up on implicit guarantees coming from the FED. We saw a similar scenario in the mortgage markets around 2008. Readiness is everything. When you're in a trend down, you won't really know for sure because you can't see the whole trend, like we see now looking back to 2020. This time around, I'm getting ready. The last major correction occurred in Feb 2020. So I am on high alert all now. I'm watching every 2hour switch. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
Cover your eyes now!This should bring out both bulls and bears! 😱 It's an amazing and long channel. The bulls will say that it's a breakout of the channel. The bears will argue that it means the NASDAQ will crash. I'm not into that debate. It's a dangerous one. Overall I think there is a slightly greater probability for the south based on the channel - but how far south is big problem. There is a probability for the north and a breakout because of the ATR line on the 1-day time frame showing a sharp switch. The the above only apply at this snapshot. Have a look. If you have reasons to be bullish or bearish, have your say! 🙏👍 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
N
by Captain_Walker
3