The Aussies are in trouble but they may not know it as yet.
Caution: this is not a prediction that the AUS200 is about to crash, or will crash. All observations and comment are based on this snapshot in time. Next week this analysis may be irrelevant if the picture changes dramatically.
Features on the chart:
1 - A clear sign of rebellion after panic selling.
2 - The rebellion is actually weak, in technical terms.
3 - The retracement up into 61.8 fib was unsurprising.
4 - Price struggled in the first (lower) zone of congestion.
5- Price was rejected twice from the second (higher) zone of congestion.
6. Price remains under the Daily ATR (amber line) - which represents a big change in sentiment at a macro-economic level.
I don't trade daily time frames, as they take too long to deliver and they are too risky for me. I would go long and short in a daily time frame bull or bear market on much lower time frames e.g. 3 to 15 min (which in trend following cant take days to complete).
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Caution: this is not a prediction that the AUS200 is about to crash, or will crash. All observations and comment are based on this snapshot in time. Next week this analysis may be irrelevant if the picture changes dramatically.
Features on the chart:
1 - A clear sign of rebellion after panic selling.
2 - The rebellion is actually weak, in technical terms.
3 - The retracement up into 61.8 fib was unsurprising.
4 - Price struggled in the first (lower) zone of congestion.
5- Price was rejected twice from the second (higher) zone of congestion.
6. Price remains under the Daily ATR (amber line) - which represents a big change in sentiment at a macro-economic level.
I don't trade daily time frames, as they take too long to deliver and they are too risky for me. I would go long and short in a daily time frame bull or bear market on much lower time frames e.g. 3 to 15 min (which in trend following cant take days to complete).
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
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