This week, the focus of many traders will be on US inflation data, which will provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. The forecasts indicate a potential 0.2% increase in both headline inflation for December and the core rate. On an annual basis, the headline inflation rate is anticipated to rebound to 3.2% from November's...
During the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026. Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan. So...
Macro Monday 25 The Feds Favorite Inflation Barometer – Core PCE The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are released this Friday 22nd December 2023. Currently Core PCE is the most important component to the Federal Reserve in making their interest rate decisions and thus it will provide a great insight into what lies ahead in terms of interest rate...
US Inflation Rate YoY Comparison - ECONOMICS:USIRYY Stark similarities to the beginning of the Great Inflationary Period (GIP) which ranged from 1965 - 1982. The GIP fractal is not a prediction, it only offers us perspective and context. As an example, US Inflation YoY could potentially bounce around between 3 - 4% for another 32 months as it did between 1975...
Gone are the days of passive investing, but mid-term trading could be the solution. The term passive investing was first made famous by Warren Buffet, who once said, 'If I like a stock, I will hold it forever.' However, in recent years, he has been seen cutting losses on his wrong decisions and taking profits when he finds the time is right. The dynamic of the...
The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5927, down 0.61%. It has been a roller-coaster ride for the New Zealand currency, which continues to swing wildly. Last week, NZD/USD surged 3.24%, its best weekly performance since October 2022. This week has been all red for the New Zealand dollar, which has...
The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5918 in the North American session, up 0.34%. New Zealand's Services PMI eased to 47.1 in August, down from 47.8 in July. The reading marked a third straight decline in activity and was the lowest level since January 2022. This comes on the heels of Friday's Manufacturing...
The euro has steadied on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0665, up 0.20%. The European Central Bank's rate decision went right down to the wire on Wednesday. It was unclear whether the central bank would hike or hold, with strong reasons to support each position. In the end, the ECB opted to hike, choosing the fight against inflation over...
Based on the last 120 year of DATA the inflation cycle had peaked . The mistake some will have that it is the beginning of ASSET DEFLATION CYCLE . SEE THE 1921 TIME TO WHICH I STATE we are in based on the 89 2010 4 and 2 year cycles and time spirals which called for a top in sp in sept and late dec 2021 which would see a major new BEAR...
MACRO MONDAY 8 S&P500 / M2 Money Supply ( SP:SPX / $WMN2S) M2 is a broad measure of the US money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash such as CDs. M2 is seen as a reliable metric for forecasting/predicting inflation and for this reason it can be used as leading economic indicator....
The Australian dollar continues to sizzle and has climbed 1.04% on Thursday, after rising 1.56% a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6857, close to a 3-week high. Inflation remains the Reserve Bank of Australia's number one priority and Thursday's inflation expectations release vindicated the RBA's concern that inflation expectations...
TMV is an ETF Shorting the Treasuries. On the 2H chart, price is rising as the treasuries are suffering value contraction while interest rates are steady or projected to rise. The chart shows rising volumes, upwards volatility as well as a PV Trend demonstrating trend strength. I see these all as confirmatory for bullish momentum. I will take a long trade into...
The Australian dollar has started the week with losses. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6848, down 0.39%. The Australian dollar gained 1.95% last week and has soared 5.2% in the month of June. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the June meeting on Tuesday. At the meeting, the Bank decided to raise rates by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark rate to 4.10%....
• First, the bank run APPEARS to have stabilized • Second, the inflation SEEMS to be taming Do not be complacent, keep on keeping track of the coming market developments. Just like what Jerome Powell said on the 3rd May after the latest interest rate hike, in the meeting conference, he said “We will take a data-dependent approach, our future policy will depend...
The Australian dollar has steadied on Monday, trading just above the 0.67 level. We could see further movement from the Aussie early on Tuesday, as China releases GDP. The markets received another clear sign on Friday that the US economy is slowing, after a disappointing March retail sales report. Headline retail sales fell by 1% and the core rate by 0.8%, worse...
Investors are facing a busy week of economic data that includes the release of consumer price and producer price index data for March on Wednesday and Thursday (US time), respectively. The results of these reports will help determine whether or not the Fed will pause or end its rate-hiking campaign. While investors are leaning towards a continuation of the Fed's...
Back in Oct 13, 2022 I made this analysis: Compared to Vonovia, Grand City has a double better debt position than its big competitor. Earnings payout are 23% and cash payout 64%. Vonovia's respective figures are 67% and 61%. Debt quity ratio at 57% is highly different from Vonovia's at 117%. Grand City may experiment higher costs of debt refinancing in 2023 but...
The Australian dollar has taken investors on a roller-coaster ride this week, reflective of the gyrations we're seeing in the financial markets. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6656, up 0.56%. Australia's employment report for February was stronger than expected. The economy produced 64,600 news jobs, after a decline of 10,900 in January....