One of the most highest probability of trades are: neutral Iron Condors with high Implied Volatility on large indices. (SPX, DJI, RUT) The more an indice is overbougth, than better this strategy works, as the correction also results more movement into downside. Unlike other overvalued stocks, however: the indices are not collapsing. (except for 1-2 extreme...
I've opened a LONG CALL VERTICAL spread yesterday end of day for Dow Jones. Correction maybe consolidated, I'm expecting some short squeeze soon. Otherwise the probability of profit is godd, and the trade is manageable because of lower strikes. (1) Relative Implied Volatility is low I'm using my Relative implied volatility indicator to determine the...
AIG currently is trading with an IV30 of 19.6, making its IV Rank 21.8. This low rank indicates that the options will be cheap, and encourages debit spreads, regardless of being bullish or bearish. These spreads will profit when volatility mean-reverts to higher levels. Because of this well-developed bear flag, we are expecting a continuation of the prior...
Cannabis stocks have the possibility to move a lot in a short period of time, as regulatory changes on whims have huge impact on the market size to which Cannabis companies can sell their products. Although our stance is that the cannabis industry is likely to become even more volatile as more regulatory developments and sector-wide shake-outs leave only the...
Short Strangle, 20 delta (68/75 strikes), 37 'DTE, $1.07 credit
CNX has been totally hammered and with an IVR of 100 and an IV of 119, I can't resist a play. 100 Shares CNX at 6.61 1 Jan 15 7 short call Total Package: 6.00 debit ($600) Max Profit: (If Called Away at 7 -- $100, excluding fees/commissions).
Having announced earnings about two weeks ago, IVR/IV in GME remains high (70/55). The standard setup -- the short strangle: Jan 22 27.5/38.5 short strangle POP%: 71% Max Profit: $113/contract BPE: ~$333/contract Break Evens: 26.37/39.63 Look to take it off at 50% max profit and move on ... .
Some stuff hits my high IVR/high IV radar over and over again. WYNN is one of those, with an IVR currently at 100 and an IV at 81. Some caution is in order, though, since ordinarily I like going 45 days out and WYNN's earnings are due to be announced on 2/2, so I want any setup to expire somewhat before that so I don't get caught in a volatility expansion (that...
Only two earnings plays stick out to me this coming week -- FDX and ORCL, both of which announce earnings on 12/16 (Wednesday) after market close, so look to put on setups before NY close on Wednesday. Currently, FDX's 52 week IVR is at 54 (IV 34), which isn't stellar, but it's at 92 for the past six months. Moreover, there is pretty good credit to be had...
You know what they say, one's man's junk is another man's treasure ... . With an IVR of 100 and an IV of 18, this may be as good as junk is going to get for premium selling (don't quote me on that; further sell-off could be on the horizon ... ). HYG Jan 29 74/84 short strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $109/contract BPE: ~ (Undefined/After Hours) BE's: 72.91/85.09
With a dwindling earnings calendar and some buying power to put to good use, I'm looking to go where the IVR/IV takes me. With an IVR of 74 and fairly decent IV of 43, HES popped up toward the top of the Dough "Notable Stocks" grid (sorted by IVR). Here's my set up: Dec 24 51/68 Short Strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $150/contract BPE: ~$597/contract BE's:...