AT40 = 31.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 25.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just off a 32-month low) VIX = 21.2 (as high as 25.9) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I have become convinced that 2019 is going to deliver another one of those poor trading starts. The...
The angles are very similar and the first half of the year wedge seems to be a good indicator for price movement. Will see how the year ends. It's been fun everyone!
>2815=short term uptrend, <2740 =continuation of medium term downtrend and possible set up for stronger move down $SPY $QQQ
Volatility Expansion from last week's $62 Expected Move. I actually expect us to burst to the upside and then Fade for the rest of the week. You can see the 'Event Risk' being priced in because of the G20, but on Monday we have a $47 Expected Move in one day alone. I marked this in Yellow on the screen. Interestingly enough, Monday's $47 move brings us up into...
Shares of MO have been under tremendous pressure since the FDA mentioned banning methol cigs/e-flavors, but don't let that fool you. This cash cow has plenty of firepower to withstand this minor hiccup and as shown on the chart, has fallen exactly to trend line support going back to 1969 (almost 50 years). This is a screaming buy! I'm already long shares,...
50% retrace lets see what it does once it gets to that point. I would think we fall once more and bounce around 261 possibly next week to start the "Santa Rally" in Decmeber
Our first expansion of Implied Volatility in 3 weeks. Last week was $47 Expected Move, this week's Expected Move is $62. I'm not sure what this next week will bring us, my bias short term is to the upside. There's a confluence of support right below us at $2,600. But at the same time I don't like the long trade unless we see some extreme capitulation-esk move...
We have a strong bounce here pre market. This honestly looks pretty strong to me. This is my 15 minute time frame. Hey, I'm not a permabear I promise. This is the earliest timeframe that I could find a bull case for, and thought it was convincing. On my Stochastics on the bottom of the chart; My longer term Blue Stochastic has risen above the lower black...
Price could find support here at this previous level of demand
Price could target $159 to test the prior resistance level
Current Price at Posting: 6589 Directional Bias: Long Price Target: 6800+ Good Entry: 6530-6550 Risk/Reward: Max of 40 tick risk / Potential Reward of 200 ticks. Trade Idea Invalidation: Hourly Candle close below 6500
RSI Trendline broke. There's just no way to read it other than that.. We're also up too high to anticipate a full backtest. I don't think I have to point out the horrific bear divergence. I've traded a number of Weekly, many Daily, and hundreds of Hourly indicator breaks and divergences. This will be my first Monthly.
$IWM 50/200d ema Death Cross earlier this month - selling intensifying over the last two weeks. Looking poised to break $146 support and visit near lows on the year. See chart for two possible near/medium term targets. Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
Last week's Implied Volatility was $49. This week's Implied Volatility Expected Move is $47. So another volatility contraction right? Wrong. We've got a holiday next week folks and we've got three and a half trading sessions. Given this, I'm inclined to say it's going to be a pretty volatile week. I zoomed in to the 15 minute time frame here, as opposed to my...
Same with previous chart, around Nov.19-21 market should reach the rally target for short.
Another contraction. Last week = $65. Next week's Expected Move is $50. I don't like it. I don't have to like it. Why do I care? Historical volatility is still outpacing implied volatility. $50 is what we moved in 1 trading sessions last week and right now that same move is what's priced in right now spread over the whole week. I didn't like last week's $65...
This took a lot of thought. I hope you enjoy! GLTA...
The infamous inverted h and s will be won or lost late this week or early next...