Watching the major pivots is fun. IWM has been in a general uptrend for a long time. Buying the pullbacks at pivots will be my overall approach. Shorting this will be very tricky so I don't recommend. Good luck to us treasure hunters.
Target 1260 Use Cfd, ETF or Futures. Retracement till 50% of last bullwave
Here, I'm opening a short call vertical to pair with a short put vertical that I originally put on as a delta hedge. IWM, after all, is looking overextended, toppy here, and I want to have more short delta in place for my overall IWM position if the election "exuberance" begins to wear thin. I filled the spread for a .52 ($52)/contract credit and will look to...
... to Dec 9th 124/127/127/131 Iron Fly for a .47 ($47)/contract credit. I figured I had to do something here to improve the prospects of this broken iron condor. I first rolled the short call vert side from the 116.5/119.5 short call vert to the 127/131. The only way to get a credit from this intra-expiry roll was to widen the spread by one strike. And then...
Last days performance is absolutely Aberrant - seek a retracement till 125 level.
I've decided to sell the strangle around IWM -0.75% . Collected a credit and hoping for 50% profit.
My current IWM positions are skewing more delta negative than I would like, even after rolling up the short put sides of those yesterday to delta balance. Much as I hate to do it here (general rule: buy on weakness, sell on strength), I'm adding in a "smidgeon" of IWM long delta here selling the as nearest as I can get to the 20 delta strike on the put side. If...
With VIX still "up there," I'm putting on a bit more premium selling setups in broad market instruments. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 61% Max Profit: $104/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $201 Break Evens: 105.01/121.99 Notes: I'll look to manage this at 50% max profit. I would also note that this is doubling as a bit of delta hedge for an IWM...
I slapped this one on rather hastily on Friday with the FBI "reopening-Clinton-email-investigation" volatility pop we had on Friday. Unfortunately, I didn't get what I usually look for in these setups -- a credit of at least 1/3rd the width of the wings (I got it filled for .89 ($89) per contract), but could have done slightly better if I'd not been in such a...
With VIX popping to >15 on Friday, my usual pattern is to rotate out of individual underlyings and into broad market instruments like SPY/SPX, IWM/RUT, etc. VIX ended the day at 16.2, and it could naturally settle back below 15, so I need to be prepp'd for either selling premium in broad index instruments if VIX sticks in there above 15 or playing a few higher...
this coming Friday, and next week will be a crucial moment for SPY seems like a new direction is about to be seen So, for this time, I will join the air-force again
It appears like IWM will go sideways until the elections, since prices are contained within the range of the recent post 5 point spike in VIX buying spree, which sent prices to a new all time high, to then see a tight range and another sharp decline, and another 5 point spike in VIX, followed by a brief rush of buying, now almost entirely retraced. I'm monitoring...
Technically Speaking Looks like we will soon see if 1200 can stop the slide. If not, the 1080 level is the next level that showed good demand. What I read today May require a subscirption? www.wsj.com Quote "Nurture you mind with great thoughts; to believe in the heroic makes sense." Benjamin Disraeli H/T to www.mercenarytrader.com They compiled a great...
This is a DAILY chart of the SPY. Every candle represents one trading day... Let me start with some historical stuff and work my way to the present. At the bottom left of this chart you will notice the green circle which is the beginning of the 2016 Uptrend Line. In June of 2016 the SPY made a higher low (see the 2nd green circle) and that is how I was able...
We have potential for a new uptrend signal emerging this week, after NFP comes out. If I'm right, we might see a strong rally in equities, lasting well into November. The time target would put a top by November 16th or sooner, which interestingly aligns with the Federal Reserve's FOMC November meeting, which has been hinted that will be a 'live' meeting, regarding...
BROAD MARKET INSTRUMENT PREMIUM SELLING Post-Brexit vote in late June, when VIX spiked to >25 (signalling a premium selling opportunity in broad market instruments like SPY/SPX and RUT/IWM in the July expiry), there has been but one >15 spike to >20 in mid-September that allowed for some premium selling in the October monthlies, which have since come off in...