... for a .54 debit. Comments: In for 1.08 (See Post Below), out for .54 here via a good until cancelled order to take profit at 50% max. * -- Iron condor. This was actually an iron condor variation -- a "double double," the setup for which was explained in the original post.
RTY appears to be coiling, probably goes overbought on MFI tomorrow then back down. More whipsaw coming, lol. Not enough up side to bother buying calls.
SPY is opening above value Opening range is going to be 438.43- 439.77 if we fade the gap it tells us we didnt have enough supply to hold price up and it was taken up to sell previous day supply to people chasing the gap. If we hold the gap with strength we can have a second day of mark up. We have to get through the open first and see how the closing hour looks.
The Russell 2000 $IWM has my attention. Small caps, small towns, mostly domestic, with the main concentration being Healthcare, Industrials, and Financials. Its top 10 holdings are: AMC OVV NTLA LSCC TTEK ASAN CROX SGMS BJ APPS I am not thrilled that AMC is the largest holder. I get it and see why movie theatre are mostly domestic and fit the small cap...
Huge range over the last 6 months. Is it a sign of reckoning or will we have one big finale to this bull market with IWM leading?
... for a .42 debit. Comments: Rolled this a few times, collecting a total of 4.88 in credits. (See Post Below). Closing it here results in a realized gain to date of 4.88 - .42 = 4.46 ($446). I opened up a new one today in the November 19th expiry at the 204 strike, so could have also rolled from October 22nd to November 19th for a credit to do the same...
... for a 1.87 credit. Comments: My weekly 16 delta short put in the broad market exchange-traded fund that has the highest 30-day in the contract nearest 45 days until expiry.
AMEX:SPY An update on the SPY Chart shows continuing bearishness. We are not getting back to the 0 line on our upper indicator and falling further below our current level on that indicator would be a very bad sign for the market. Inflation doesn't seem like it's going away and crypto may be showing itself as an inflation hedge.
Is ES ready to complete the ABC down at $4160? Looking for ES to violate the bottom of wave 2 of 5 wave move up.
SPX, through a confirmed iH&S via The Russell 2000, reversed on Friday. Mini-Pennants are forming on the two hour frame. NAS is the outlier, while price advanced with SPX the path included a lower low, invalidating an iH&S pattern. NAS is working on printing a two hour broaden wedge pattern. The Vix hit the 50% Break Target of the Bull Pennant, finding...
Still doing the rangebound whipsaw, looks to me like it goes overbought by Tuesday and drops back down. Small caps have a tendency to fill gaps (on the index, not futures) so maybe it fills the gap then cycles back down. If anyone has a good way to predict this whipsaw, I'd like to hear your theories.
... for a 2.13 credit. Comments: My Friday 16-delta short put in the broad market exchange-traded fund with the highest implied volatility.
Looks to me like a reversal coming tomorrow when RSI goes oversold. Didn't think it would rally without going oversold first, and I was right... Needs to go down tomorrow, then we get a reversal.
The Russell confirmed an H&S with quick support after the break. Russell 2000 on watch in concert with NAS and the 10 Year Note.
Brief for IWM: - Bull flag to give a try. - Rotation out of tech and into cyclicals, tailwinds due to rising yields. It should benefit Russell. - Potential EOY rally due to seasonality, September seasonality may be behind us. GLHF - DPT
RTY did not go oversold like ES and NQ. Futures appear to be rallying together anyways.
Spy has taken out 2 previous lows which triggers stops as we can see in the volume. Holding VAL and regaining VAH can start trend reversal meaning we have the supply to do so. IF there's a seller in the market we will take out VAL and test the low of 428.87.
The ratio of QQQ/IWM looks bearish and seems to have entered its c down wave with another 27% downside. This implies outperformance of value stocks vs growth (or energy/financials vs tech). Cheers,