When comparing tech focused ETFs/indexes, namely $NDAQ and $XLK, we can see that $SPY has recently been outperforming them. My theory is that this is an unusual case and a sign that tech stocks are near tops.
Given that I did not receive the dip I wanted, I have difficulty putting on a short position on tech. There is also the factor that the highs have not been...
One of two things will happen:
Many puts will be OTM, we rally
- I will consider closing positions whether they are in profit/loss or roll over
The PC ratio will continue to push forward
- I lose a bit on this but net profit on overall positions
Its top two constituents by weight, JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway's (stinky) B shares, have been performing very poorly in comparison to most stocks:
This along with XLK (tech bubble) and XLE (oil) are, to me, overvalued and must be denied higher prices.
Bullish: Every week since the low has closed green except this week.
Bearish: The last week of each month have been particularly bearish since January.
The overwhelming bull trend that's taken place over the past few weeks have been disorienting. My bias is now leaning neutral. I will consider the downtrend on hold if the monthly closes above the 17th of April...
www.cftc.gov
COT's managed fund traders flipping bullish on natural gas near the bottom.
Nonreportables closing longs, a good sign because they're supposed to be the always wrong crowd.
Entry below current price and S/R level because it may be a bad bet. Entry may be missed but it's okay
Undetermined resistance. Possibly 7350 or 7402. Beyond that, I am hoping for a move towards higher 7k levels. Deribit options were nice because I was able to get out in profit on both my terrible calls and puts while I was asleep. I closed my short and flipped long on futures at 7200, hedging with a 6500 put Dec. 27 expiry.
Quick change to idea while writing...
Season 20, episode 2 --
AMD thinks they have The Might Morphin GeForce Rangers cooling fans against the wall, but what they don't know is that you're supposed to buy low and sell high.
If the weeklies being unable to capture a close above 97.4 is indicative of a longer term downtrend for DXY, the potential gains on USD pairings is hyuge.
Purple marked boxes are my current potential TPs/position flips. I will long USDJPY or USDCHF as a hedge if DXY paaamps but only after closing manually at a large loss
Now that Deribit's December futures expired, and CME's/BitMEX's will soon, there should be a un-dump with price going upwards. Price around expiration usually dumps because of everyone pulling out their positions before their contracts are settled. Since March will be the newest futures contract on BitMEX the gap should slowly creep up to spot/index price.
Bitcoin pushing to get a candle close over D3 candle range. I believe it should break upwards and retest.
Edit: Daily closed under it while publishing, not too hot.
Possibly leveraging long after a close above D3 candle range. TP at 4.8 and shorting 4.9 as a hedge.
Would short a bearish retest of 3.8 HVN if price gets there. Otherwise I'm staying mostly flat...
This pattern doesn't appear often because stop runs make uneven bottoms or because a higher low rather than equal bottoms is much more attractive as far as cups going ups is concerned.
Quite the price point to be at. There is a chance that a failed breakout will mean new lows, which is dangerous for Ethereum if its $100 psychological support is not held...
