U.S. Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar USDHKD

This is an excerpt from MACRO BRIEF: Hong Kong Dollar Strengthens on Rate Spike originally published March 10, 2019. The short-HKD trade is nearly consensus, which reminds me of the short-yuan trade a few years ago that was largely snuffed out by the PBOC. Problem here, though, is the HKMA's attempts to draw in HKD inflows have been superficial at best....

2018 saw a rolling bear market in emerging markets, with a lot of EM currencies getting crushed vs. the dollar. Why has everyone forgotten about this? The issues are systemic, and the buy-down of the USDHKD peg only kept the eurodollar market functioning for long enough to forestall some further pain. Now that the peg has been hit again, we are starting to yet...

Unsurprisingly, similar to the currency, the outperformance of the Chinese stock market vs. the S&P 500 falters when the Chinese currency can't be sustained. Not quite as direct of a relationship, but this clearly affects emerging markets, which are highly indebted to the dollar. This is visible if you go back further as well - the broad rolling emerging market...

Just an observation that I have brought up in the past. The link to that post is below. But, I do find it interesting to note that China is the only reason that our Markets haven't nose dived into the ground yet. They keep saving it. Probably because of that "Trade Deal" that is supposed to happen right? Like two weeks ago....."Biggest Trade Deal Ever", remember? Guys?

The Value of this currency pair is at an all-time high. A level that has never been breached and exhibits an unnaturally potent downward force on price. Buying at this level would most likely turn out to be a giant mistake. As such, selling is the only option. Wait for RSI crossover and place stop above resistance. If this coincides with spring equinox then a...

USDHKD is a proxy for monetary "stuff" going on in China. China can stimulate when this peg is not being hit as most of their dollar funding seems to be running through Hong Kong. When the peg gets hit however, we see noticeable problems and effects around the world. We are now about to see the peg get re-hit once again, which will likely kick off another wave of...

Possible scenario. Watching for bearish break of trendline. If so, would watch for price to reach key level as noted in the market, which also happens to land at 61.8% fib level. For educational and demonstration purposes only. Trade at your own risk.

been monitoring this pair for almost a year. expecting something between march to may

USDHKD Timeframe: 1D Direction: Short Confluences for Trade: - Pegged currency @ 7.85 - Stochastic Overbought momentum - Price action at Horizontal Resistance Trendline (Central Bank defends at this level) - The opportunity appears again similarly to our previous USDHKD trade; minimal risk involved) Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 7.8450 - 7.8500 SL:...

usdhkd

Heavily dependent on fading DXY megabullrunxtreme. Other possible shorts using DXY failing to break highs are possibly USDCHF and USDINR.

sl:7.8478

I think its a clear view of whats going to happen the next couple of hours/days. ENTRY is at the black line. S/L = 7.84444

Trading Methodology: 1. An asymmetric bullish/bearish pennant is drawn using ascending and descending curved trend lines with a minimum of three price action touche points per line. The direction is determined by the previous trend. 2. The angle tool is applied from the earliest two trend touch points, beginning at the earliest touch point. 3. A trend-based...

USDHKD Timeframe: 1D Direction: Short Confluences for Trade: - Pegged currency, strongly defended at 7.85 (Limited risk; any break above the 7.85 levels is gonna be a crisis issue) - Stochastic Overbought momentum - Not directly related but Double Top Resistance for the DXY, helps support the drop in USD strength Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest...

Looking at this chart you will see the Hong Kong Dollar as it compares to the Dow Jones as of late. Notice, that each time the Dow Jones "sells off" it is preceded by a devaluation of the Kong Kong Dollar. Bought and Paid for by China.... :)

Going to try this short tonight, lots of the Indices had good drops today which could lead to a big sell of the $ vs other currencies. Its broke out of a bear pennant, should it not shoot up past 7.852 it should be a safe enough play. Target is 7.77

as shown on the chart