USDCAD - BullishFrom my perspective, higher-timeframe structure has flipped, with sellers taking control. Price has shown a clear shift in market character, breaking the prior major higher low and establishing downside intent.
From here, I’m watching for a strong HTF lower high to form, which would keep price aligned toward continuation to the lows. Until that develops, I’m simply reading the tape and tracking behavior.
Nothing forced.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
LONG ON AUD/JPYThe Jpy Index pushed up on Friday but is now starting to retrace/pullback/correct or fall.
We have a nice choc (change of character) from down to up on AJ on the 15min timeframe.
I expect price to drop first to 106.392 then rise.
This is a buy limit order. I will be looking to catch 100-200 pips.
NZDJPY Market OutlookMarket cycles and price patterns tend to repeat across global financial markets. For patient traders with a keen eye, these recurring structures often create opportunities for asymmetric risk-reward trades.
During 2024 and into 2025, the Japanese Yen strengthened significantly against major global currencies. A combination of rate hikes, tariff pressures, and heightened geopolitical risk weighed heavily on risk-sensitive currencies, pushing the New Zealand Dollar lower against the Yen.
This sustained decline in NZDJPY created a clear market imbalance in the 94–95 price region—an area that price had not fully mitigated during the selloff. Historically, NZDJPY has displayed a recurring behavioral pattern:
a sharp impulsive decline, followed by a slow and extended corrective recovery, and eventually another leg lower.
April 2025 marked the conclusion of the bearish impulse and the beginning of a corrective bullish phase. Since then, price has been gradually recovering, consistent with prior corrective structures observed on this pair.
At present, NZDJPY appears to be targeting the 95–97 zone to complete the mitigation of the previously formed imbalance. This area represents a critical decision point. Should price complete the correction as expected, the broader structure favors a continuation lower, with downside targets aligned toward the fair value gap near the 78 handle.
Long trade
Trade Details
Entry: 25,651.00
Take Profit: 25,827.50 (0.68%)
Stop Loss: 25,623.50 (0.10%)
Risk–Reward: 6.42R
🟢 Directional Bias
Buy-side continuation:
The market shows acceptance back above intraday value following a sell-side liquidity purge, indicating bullish order-flow control.
🧠 Market Sentiment Overview
Early session weakness engineered sell-side liquidity
Sharp rejection from the lows confirms sell-side absorption
Subsequent impulsive moves higher signal institutional accumulation
This is a re-accumulation after a stop-run.
🧩 Structural Context
Sell-side liquidity swept below the Asian range
Immediate displacement higher created a bullish BOS
Price transitioned from discount → equilibrium → premium
Structure supports continuation higher, not mean reversion lower.
📊 Volume Profile & Value
Reclaim of intraday POC / value low
Acceptance above the value confirms a bullish auction
Volume shifts higher → value following price.
🟦 PD Arrays / Fair Value Gaps
Entry aligned with a bullish FVG inside discount
Clean mitigation followed by continuation
No inefficient gaps left below → downside fuel reduced.
⏱️ Session Behaviour
London AM delivered the liquidity sweep + reversal
Follow through into NY, the overlap is likely.
classic London manipulation → NY expansion profile.
🎯 Trade Logic
Sell-side liquidity cleared early
Market reclaimed value with displacement
Buyers defended pullbacks aggressively
Buyside liquidity resting above prior highs.
⚠️ Invalidation Criteria
Failure to hold above the reclaimed value
Bearish displacement back into discount
Until then, buy-side bias remains intact.
🧾 TradingView-Ready Summary
MNQH shows buy-side continuation following a sell-side liquidity sweep and strong bullish displacement. Acceptance above value and clean FVG mitigation support further upside expansion.
Short trade
Trade Details
Entry: 0.86920
Take Profit: 0.86568 (0.40%)
Stop Loss: 0.86988 (0.078%)
Risk–Reward: 5.18R
🔴 Directional Bias
Sell-side continuation: Price action confirms a bearish intraday narrative, with downside liquidity acting as the dominant draw.
🧠 Market Sentiment Overview
Bullish attempts were absorbed, not accepted
Buyers failed to hold above fair value → transition back into discount
Market sentiment shifted from responsive buying → aggressive selling
This is a distribution into weakness, not a healthy pullback.
🟦 Fair Value / PD Array Confluence
Entry aligned with fair value/equilibrium zone
Rejection from ~0.50–0.75 range confirms premium sell
Clean displacement away from value supports continuation.
⏱️ Session Behaviour
Sell-side expansion aligns with thin liquidity conditions. No impulsive reclaim back into range
We assume this indicates smart-money distribution and not stop-run noise.
🧩Structural Context
Prior range high sweep (buyside liquidity) failed
Subsequent lower high formed beneath key intraday resistance
Breaking back below the fair value confirmed bearish order-flow control.
🎯 Trade Logic
Liquidity run completed on the upside. The market failed to sustain acceptance above the resistance. Sellers stepped in aggressively at value. Downside liquidity remains unswept → natural price magnet.
⚠️Invalidation Criteria
Sustained acceptance back above the value / POC
Strong bullish displacement reclaiming prior highs
Until then, sell-side bias remains valid.
🧾 Summary
EURGBP shows clear sell-side sentiment following a failed buyside sweep and rejection from value. Acceptance below POC confirms bearish order flow, with downside liquidity acting as the primary driver.
Long trade
15min TF overview
Pair: XRP
Bias: Buy-Side
Date: Sun 18th Jan 2026
Time: 7:00 PM
Session: NY Session pm
Execution TF: 15-Minute
Model: Liquidity Mitigation → Expansion
🟥 EXECUTION & RISK
Entry: 1.8551
Stop Loss: 1.8417 (tight invalidation below demand)
Take Profit: 2.4148 (premium liquidity objective)
Risk–Reward: 41.77R
Sentiment & Market Narrative — Buy-Side Bias
Market sentiment at the time of entry was decisively bullish, with XRP transitioning from a distribution phase into an expansion phase following a prolonged consolidation period.
Price had already completed a higher-timeframe markdown and re-accumulation, evident through compression, declining volatility, and repeated defence of discounted price levels. Sell-side liquidity had been sufficiently mitigated, reducing the downside incentive and shifting the market’s draw toward buy-side objectives that rested above prior highs.
From a session perspective:
Tokyo and London sessions maintained a tight range, absorbing residual sell pressure.
New York PM acted as the expansion catalyst, breaking internal structure and confirming bullish intent.
The entry occurred in a discounted region, aligned with a balanced price range and internal inefficiencies, providing optimal asymmetric conditions. The shallow stop placement reflects strong underlying demand, while the projected upside targets premium liquidity pools and higher-timeframe inefficiencies.
Broader sentiment supported risk-on continuation, with price behaviour suggesting smart-money positioning ahead of a larger impulsive move rather than reactive short-covering.
BTCUSDTTRADING SCENARIOS ANALYSIS
MARKET DYNAMICS
Bitcoin showing strong institutional accumulation with clear bullish
structure across multiple timeframes. 1w timeframe displays massive
bullish OB (62737.20-48888.00) with 36.39% volume, indicating major
smart money positioning. Recent price action: 4-candle bullish rally
from 90469.70 to 96828.10 (+6.96%) with BOS confirmations on 8h
(94555.00) and 4h (94760.30). Current price at 96828.10 is 90.5% into
24h range, suggesting short-term overextension. Triple OB confluence
at 89-90k zone (1w/8h/4h) provides strong institutional demand. Price
broke above 8h core cluster (96345.75) and currently testing 4h
cluster lower boundary (99100.88). Multi-timeframe bias neutral (0%
strength) indicates consolidation phase, but higher timeframe
structure (1w/1d) remains bullish. ATR at 2453.98 (2.53%) shows
healthy volatility for position sizing.
RISK FACTORS
1. Price overextended at 90.5% of 24h range - pullback likely before
continuation
2. Bearish FVG confluence at 112330.93 (1d/8h/4h) creates resistance
zone 16% above current price
3. 1d bearish OB at 126208.50-123018.50 with 30.20% volume caps upside
at +28.7%
4. Recent bearish candle on 1d timeframe shows profit-taking after 4-day
rally
5. Multi-timeframe bias neutral (0%) indicates lack of immediate
directional conviction
6. 4h timeframe shows bearish structure bias with recent BOS at 98888.80
7. Low volume on last 1d candle (60026.83) compared to rally average
(169k-200k) suggests weakening momentum
RECOMMENDED TRADING APPROACH
--- ENTRY ZONE STRATEGY ---
The optimal entry zone spans 89242.00-94413.40, with the sweet spot at
92258.00 (bottom of 1d bullish FVG). This range represents a critical
institutional demand confluence: (1) 1w Bullish OB (62737.20-48888.00)
with massive 36.39% volume showing major accumulation, (2) 8h Bullish
OB (90790.00-89242.00) with 19.03% volume as nearest demand, (3) 4h
Bullish OB (90790.00-89242.00) with strongest 50.19% volume, and (4)
1d unmitigated Bullish FVG (94413.40-92488.00) created during recent
rally. The cross-timeframe cluster at 88472.06 (1w/8h/4h confluence
with 19.33 total strength) anchors this zone. Positioning strategy:
Set limit orders in layers - 30% at 94413.40 (FVG top), 40% at
92258.00 (FVG optimal/8h FVG bottom), 30% at 89242.00 (OB bottom/swing
low). This captures institutional retest while managing risk if price
doesn't retrace fully. Current price at 96828.10 is 4.48% above
optimal entry, requiring patience for pullback.
--- TRIGGER LEVEL ---
Trigger level at 92488.00 represents the BOTTOM of the 1d bullish FVG
(94413.40-92488.00) and aligns with the 8h bullish FVG bottom
(94413.40-92258.00). This is NOT a breakout level - it's a RETEST
confirmation point. Expected price action: Wait for price to retrace
from current 96828.10 and CLOSE BELOW 94413.40 on 4h timeframe,
confirming entry into the FVG retest zone. Ideal trigger: 4h candle
closes between 92258.00-94413.40 with bullish rejection wick (showing
demand), then enter on next candle open. Alternative aggressive entry:
Price touches 92488.00 with strong bullish engulfing on 1h/4h. DO NOT
chase current price - wait for institutional retest of demand zone.
The 1d FVG remains unmitigated, making this a high-probability retest
target.
--- INVALIDATION CONDITIONS ---
Scenario remains valid above entry as long as price stays above
86355.00. However, if price fails to retrace into entry zone
(89242.00-94413.40) and instead breaks above 99100.88 (4h cluster
center) with strong momentum, consider this a missed opportunity - DO
NOT chase. Re-evaluate if price reaches 102509.10 (4h bearish FVG)
without retest, as this indicates stronger-than-expected momentum that
bypassed institutional demand zone.
EXACT invalidation: 4h candle close below 86355.00 (4h swing low from
index 367). This level sits below the triple OB confluence zone and
represents structural breakdown. Additional invalidation: Close below
87688.00 (4h swing low from index 265) on 4h timeframe with volume
spike suggests bearish CHoCH forming. Partial invalidation: Wick below
89242.00 that closes back above is acceptable (liquidity sweep), but
close below 89242.00 on 4h reduces probability to 50% - tighten stop
to 87688.00.
Critical structural invalidations: (1) Bearish CHoCH on 4h breaking
below 89242.00 with 2+ consecutive closes, (2) 8h timeframe forms
bearish BOS breaking 89242.00 swing low, (3) 1d timeframe closes below
91011.00 (previous day's low), creating lower low and negating bullish
structure, (4) Higher timeframe conflict: 1w closes below 86760.00
(recent swing low), invalidating entire bullish thesis. Monitor 4h
retracements: if price retraces beyond 61.8% of recent rally (below
91252.50) without bullish reaction, structure weakens significantly.
--- POST ENTRY MONITORING ---
• 94760.3: 4h BOS level and recent swing high - first resistance after
entry
→ Action: Monitor for clean break above with volume. Failure to
break suggests ranging - consider partial profit at entry +2%
• 98888.8: 8h bearish BOS level and 4h historical resistance - key
breakout point
→ Action: CRITICAL: 4h close above this level confirms bullish
continuation. Move SL to breakeven. Rejection here may cause
retest of entry zone
• 99100.88: 4h cluster center with 13.2 strength - major resistance
zone
→ Action: Strong resistance. Watch for consolidation 96k-99k. Break
above with volume targets 102k. Failure may trigger pullback to
94k
• 102509.1: 4h bearish FVG bottom - institutional supply zone entry
→ Action: Expect initial rejection. Clean break confirms strong
momentum. Move SL to 94760.30 and take 40% profit at TP1
(107211.50)
• 107211.5: TP1 - 1d swing low / 8h swing high confluence with 2.8
cluster strength
→ Action: Take 40% profit. Major liquidity zone. Monitor for
rejection or consolidation. Break above targets 111959.50
• 111959.5: TP2 - 1w swing high and 1d BOS level - institutional
resistance
→ Action: Take 30% profit. Strong resistance. Monitor 1d timeframe
for bearish reversal patterns. Break targets 124k
• Entry confirmation: Look for volume spike (>100k on 4h) when price
enters 89-94k zone, indicating institutional buying
• Breakout validation: Volume must exceed 150k on 4h when breaking
98888.80 (8h BOS) to confirm continuation
• Momentum divergence: If price makes higher highs above 99k but 4h
volume declining (<80k), warns of exhaustion - tighten stops
• 1d timeframe: Monitor daily volume - sustained rally needs >150k
daily volume. Drop below 100k suggests consolidation incoming
• Relative volume: Compare current 4h volume to 20-period average.
Break above 98888.80 needs 1.5x average volume minimum
• Bullish: 4h closes above 98888.80 with strong body (>60% of candle
range) and volume >150k
• Bullish: Price consolidates 96k-99k for 2-3 days then breaks above
99100.88 with volume expansion
• Bullish: 1d timeframe forms bullish engulfing above 97932.10 (recent
high) with volume >180k
• Bullish: 8h forms higher low above 94760.30 then breaks 98888.80 -
confirms uptrend continuation
• Strong bullish: Price gaps up through 99100.88 on 1d open,
indicating institutional FOMO - targets 107k directly
• Bearish: 4h forms lower high below 96988.00 with bearish engulfing -
warns of distribution
• Bearish: Price fails to break 98888.80 after 3+ attempts, forming
triple top - exit 50% position
• Bearish: 1d closes below 95375.20 (previous day close) with volume
>150k - bearish CHoCH forming
• Bearish: 4h breaks below 94413.40 (FVG top) with volume spike -
retest failed, exit remaining position
• Critical bearish: 4h closes below 92488.00 (entry trigger) -
immediate exit, structure compromised
• Scale 1 (40% position): TP1 at 107211.50 when price closes above
102509.10 on 4h - locks 16.3% gain from optimal entry
• Scale 2 (30% position): TP2 at 111959.50 when price closes above
107211.50 on 1d - locks 21.4% gain, total 37.7% realized
• Scale 3 (30% position): TP3 at 124545.60 or trail stop at -8% from
highest high after 111959.50 break - targets 35% final gain
• Alternative: If price consolidates at 107k-112k for >5 days,
consider taking 50% profit and trailing stop to 102509.10
• Risk management: Never let winner turn to loser - if price returns
to entry +5% after reaching TP1, close remaining 60% position
• Initial SL: 86355.00 (4h swing low) - risk 6.79% from optimal entry
at 92258.00
• After 98888.80 break: Move SL to breakeven (92258.00) - eliminates
risk, locks breakeven
• After 102509.10 break: Move SL to 94760.30 (4h BOS) - locks minimum
2.71% gain
• After TP1 (107211.50): Move SL to 99100.88 (4h cluster) - locks
7.42% on remaining 60%
• After TP2 (111959.50): Move SL to 105399.60 (4h bearish OB) - locks
14.25% on final 30%
• Trailing stop: After 111959.50, use 8% trailing stop from highest
high on remaining position
• 1w: Monitor weekly close - must stay above 90964.40 (recent low) to
maintain bullish structure. Close below 86760.00 invalidates entire
setup
• 1d: Check daily for bearish CHoCH - close below 95375.20 warns of
reversal. Bullish continuation needs daily closes above 96828.10
• 8h: Key timeframe for momentum - must see BOS above 97932.10 within
3-5 candles after entry for confirmation
• 4h: Primary management timeframe - all stop adjustments based on 4h
closes. Monitor for bearish CHoCH below 94760.30
• 1h: Use for entry timing only - look for bullish rejection wicks at
92258.00-94413.40 zone on 1h for precise entry
BNBUSDT M15 HTF Supply Reaction and Bearish Continuation Setup📝 Description
BNB has pushed into a short-term premium zone after a corrective bounce and is now showing hesitation below a 15-minute Fair Value Gap. The recent upside move lacks strong bullish continuation, and price is reacting from a supply-aligned area, increasing the probability of a downside rotation.
________________________________________
📉 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bearish below the 15m FVG and intraday highs
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 872.61
• Stop Loss: Above 874.33
• TP1: 870.90
• TP2: 868.10
• TP3: 864.90
________________________________________
🧠 ICT & SMC Notes
• Price reacting from 15m FVG in premium
• Weak bullish follow-through after mitigation
• Internal buy-side liquidity already tapped
• Downside targets aligned with BPR and lower imbalance zones
________________________________________
📌 Summary
As long as price remains capped below the 873–874 resistance area, the bearish continuation scenario remains favored. Current price action suggests a corrective pullback has likely completed, with expectations of a rotation toward lower liquidity pools.
________________________________________
🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
No strong bullish catalyst is currently present for BNB, and broader crypto sentiment remains vulnerable to short-term pullbacks. This environment supports mean-reversion and liquidity-driven downside moves rather than sustained upside continuation.
________________________________________
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
Watch out level 80 on RIVER !The uptrend appears increasingly extended after a prolonged impulsive move, with price trading far above the value area indicated by the volume profile.
Short-term price action shows slowing momentum and smaller candle bodies, suggesting buyer fatigue. Still, the structure remains technically valid as long as the 80 level holds as support. This zone aligns with a prior resistance-turned-support area and a visible low-volume gap, making it a key control point.
A firm defense could lead to consolidation before continuation higher.
However, a breakdown below 80 would likely trigger a deeper retracement, potentially rotating price back toward the 50 region.
AUDJPY: Your Plan to Buy 🇦🇺🇯🇵
AUDJPY is consolidating on a key daily horizontal support.
To buy with confirmation, wait for a bullish breakout of the underlined intraday
horizontal resistance.
An hourly candle close above 106.86 will confirm a violation.
A bullish movement will be expected to 107.36 level then.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long trade Buy-side trade
NY Session AM
Pair MGC1!
Observation
Fri 22nd Jan 26
10.00 am
Entry 4947.3
Profit level 5000.0 (1.06%)
Stop level 4938.2 (0.18%)
RR 5.79
Micro Gold (MGC) — Sentiment & Narrative Analysis
Market Sentiment: Strong Buy-Side Continuation
Price action reflects a well-structured buy-side expansion, following a clear sell-side mitigation phase earlier in the session. Prior downside liquidity was efficiently absorbed, evidenced by the double-bottom formation and subsequent impulsive displacement higher, confirming a shift in order-flow control.
The market transitioned into higher highs and higher lows, with multiple bullish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) left unfilled beneath price — a classic signature of institutional urgency and directional intent, rather than mean reversion.
During the London to New York handover, price consolidated near the highs instead of retracing deeply, indicating acceptance above value. This behaviour supports the narrative that pullbacks are being used for reloading buy-side positions, not distribution.
The clean trend channel and respect of internal structure suggest the move is being driven by programmatic buying, targeting resting buy-side liquidity above the prior session highs. There is little technical incentive for the price to rebalance lower unless a key internal structure fails.
Invalidation
Acceptance back below 4,938.2
Breakdown of internal bullish structure/trend channel
XAU/USD 26 January 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per analysis dated 22 January where I mentioned price could potentially continue bullish is how price printed.
CHoCH positioning has again been brought closer to current price action and is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price is trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 5,111.510.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.
Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.
Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed as per analysis dated 23 January 2026 by printing a bullish iBOS.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH, with price subsequently continuing to print higher, however, due to the very insignificant depth of pullback, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, this has been marked in red.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade down to either M15 or H4 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high, priced at 5,111,510.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print a bearish iBOS as all HTF's require pullback.
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
Brent Oil M30 HTF Discount Reaction and Bullish Continuation📝 Description
BLACKBULL:BRENT crude oil has completed a corrective pullback after a strong impulsive rally and is now stabilizing above a key short-term demand zone. Price has reacted cleanly from the SSL and lower boundary of the recent range, suggesting buyers are defending this area and preparing for another leg higher toward premium liquidity.
________________________________________
📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above the recent swing low and SSL
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 65.015
• Stop Loss: Below 64.730
• TP1: 65.25
• TP2: 65.45
• TP3: 65.73
________________________________________
🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Sell-side liquidity sweep followed by bullish displacement
• Reaction from intraday support and SSL confirms demand
• No bearish break of structure after the pullback
• Upside targets aligned with prior highs and premium liquidity
________________________________________
🧩 Summary
As long as BLACKBULL:BRENT holds above the 64.75–64.90 support zone, the bullish continuation scenario remains favored. The current pullback appears corrective, with expectations of a rotation higher toward recent highs and upper liquidity pools.
________________________________________
🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
Oil sentiment remains constructive amid steady demand expectations and the absence of strong bearish catalysts. Short-term pullbacks into defended demand zones are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals.
________________________________________
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
USDJPY — No Trade Today | Regime Invalid = Capital PreservationToday is a textbook example of why permission > prediction.
My system didn’t place a single trade — by design.
Here’s what the regime framework detected:
• 4H trend bias → invalid (no directional edge)
• Volatility → expanding (unstable conditions)
• Both engines → BLOCKED
• Result → Flat
When volatility expands without structure, continuation and mean-reversion both degrade.
That’s the exact environment where most traders get chopped.
So instead of forcing setups…
The system does nothing.
No signal is a decision.
Flat is a position.
Capital preserved > random trades.
What would unlock trades?
For continuation (E1):
• 4H EMA alignment
• slope agreement
• volatility expansion with structure
For reversal (E3):
• contraction first
• then controlled extremes
Until then → no permission → no trade.
Most losses don’t come from bad entries.
They come from trading when there is no statistical edge.
Today the correct trade was discipline.
Regime first. Always.
— RegimeWorks
FUSIONMARKETS:USDJPY
XRPUSDT M30 HTF Discount Reaction and Bullish Continuation Setup📝 Description
BINANCE:XRPUSDT has completed a sharp corrective sell-off and is now stabilizing above a higher-timeframe discount zone. Price is currently reacting from a 30-minute Fair Value Gap after defending the BPR area, indicating potential accumulation and readiness for a bullish continuation toward higher liquidity pools.
________________________________________
📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above the 30m FVG and recent swing low
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 1.8819
• Stop Loss: Below 1.872
• TP1: 1.8947
• TP2: 1.9099
• TP3: 1.9325
________________________________________
🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Sell-side liquidity sweep followed by strong bullish displacement
• Price reacting from a validated 30m FVG
• BPR acting as support, no bearish BOS after the rebound
________________________________________
🧩 Summary
CRYPTOCAP:XRP shows clear signs of demand stepping in after a liquidity-driven sell-off. As long as price holds above the 30-minute FVG and maintains higher lows, the bullish continuation scenario remains favored with targets aligned toward prior intraday highs and premium liquidity.
________________________________________
🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
With USD weakness, market conditions shift toward risk-on. In this environment, crypto assets benefit from improved risk appetite, placing XRP in a favorable risk-on context, where upside potential increases as long as dollar pressure persists.
________________________________________
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
USDCHF- BearishFrom my perspective, higher-timeframe structure has flipped, with sellers taking control. Price has shown a clear shift in market character, breaking the prior major higher low and establishing downside intent.
From here, I’m watching for a strong HTF lower high to form, which would keep price aligned toward continuation to the lows. Until that develops, I’m simply reading the tape and tracking behavior.
Nothing forced.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
EURUSD - BullishPrice may pause into distribution, or momentum may continue pressing toward higher highs. Either way, I let the market lead and show its hand — my job is alignment, not prediction.
At the moment, I’m monitoring key sweep areas that could provide fuel for continuation toward midterm and higher-timeframe objectives. Until that behavior confirms, it’s patience and tracking only.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
EURGBP - BullishI’m flowing with price as it continues higher, reading behavior and tracking its footsteps. As price approaches higher highs, we’re seeing higher lows form, signaling a structure shift within the broader HTF bullish framework.
Momentum remains aligned with trend, so for now I’m simply waiting and tracking delivery.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge.
CADJPY - BullishPrice is currently in a calm speculation zone as I observe the tape. We’re operating within a strong accumulation demand area, and from here I’m simply tracking price behavior and its footprints.
If price chooses to move forward, I’ll continue to monitor how it delivers. Until then, nothing is forced.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
MGC Daily Analysis & Replay - Monday January 12 2026 part 1Day: 2-1-2 / +$123
(all 1 MGC trades)
--------------
As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
HAL Short setup.
Spotted a high-probability short setup on Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd based on multi-timeframe confluence:
- 🔴 Supply Zone aligned with Daily EMA 50 and Weekly EMA 50 – strong resistance cluster.
- 🔄 Entry on retracement into the zone, post breakdown of prior pivot low.
- 🟠 Stop Loss placed at 15% DATR above the zone for volatility buffer.
- 🎯 Target set at 1:3 RR, respecting structure and momentum.
- 📉 EMA 21 < EMA 50 confirms short bias
The zone is placed with high probability.
The trade is valid till the time price retraces to to level and moves down.
The trade remains invalid if price moves down first to form lower high and lower low and then retraces back in sessions to come.
GBPJPY - BullishPrice will do what it wants — I don’t control it, I track it. That’s the edge. As long as structure remains intact, I flow with price behavior.
Current momentum is aggressive, but the blue order block below represents a stronger accumulation area if price seeks deeper liquidity to fuel continuation. For now, I’m observing how price reacts around the current IDM and engineered liquidity. If we hold, that gives information. If we dip, that also gives information.
Nothing forced. Just tracking.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge.






















