Adyen 1W: The trend broke twice, the market is just catching upOn the weekly chart, Adyen has broken the long term downtrend twice, and price is now performing a controlled pullback retest. The current consolidation holds above the $15.5–16.0 demand zone, where MA100, 0.786 Fibonacci and strong volume profile support align. Selling pressure is fading, volumes on the pullback are declining, and bullish divergence remains intact. This structure favors confirmation of the breakout rather than a return to a bearish trend. As long as price stays above this zone, upside remains the priority. First target stands at $19.94, followed by $23.23.
Fundamentally, Adyen continues to deliver consistent growth. H1 2025 revenue reached $1.28B, up from $1.13B in H2 2024. H2 2025 revenue is projected at $1.49B, with forecasts extending toward $1.53–1.88B in 2026–2027. EPS came in at $0.18 for H1 2025, with $0.21 expected in H2, rising toward $0.25–0.26 by 2027. Analyst sentiment leans bullish as digital payment volumes continue to expand globally.
When a trend breaks twice, patience usually gets paid.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Gold Context: Strong Short Covering & The New Money TestFOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1!
Analysis
1. Market Context (Early US Session)
We are witnessing strong Short Covering in the early US session, continuing the momentum from yesterday where Gold traded above the previous multi-day range.
• The Driver: The vertical nature of the move confirms the exit of old shorts. However, for this to sustain, we must see this emotional energy transition into New Money Buying (Initiative) .
• Observation: If price can hold these higher levels without immediate rejection, it confirms that "New Money" is entering to defend the breakout.
2. Structure & Targets
• Bias: I remain on the Long side at this moment. The breakout above the recent balance suggests the path of least resistance is toward the higher area (ATH).
• Condition: We need to see acceptance, not just a "look and fail." Continued short covering will naturally pull the auction higher.
3. The Risk (Liquidation)
• Support Check: If the buying dries up and we see Long Liquidation , the auction will likely rotate back to test the 4300 support area. This would be a test of the breakout's validity.
Plan & Execution
• Focus: Monitoring for volume and time acceptance at these highs.
• Invalidation: Loss of momentum returning to 4300.
Talk to you for the next update. b]Analysis
1. Market Context (Early US Session)
We are witnessing strong Short Covering in the early US session, continuing the momentum from yesterday where Gold traded above the previous multi-day range.
• The Driver: The vertical nature of the move confirms the exit of old shorts. However, for this to sustain, we must see this emotional energy transition into New Money Buying (Initiative) .
• Observation: If price can hold these higher levels without immediate rejection, it confirms that "New Money" is entering to defend the breakout.
2. Structure & Targets
• Bias: I remain on the Long side at this moment. The breakout above the recent balance suggests the path of least resistance is toward the higher area (ATH).
• Condition: We need to see acceptance, not just a "look and fail." Continued short covering will naturally pull the auction higher.
3. The Risk (Liquidation)
• Support Check: If the buying dries up and we see Long Liquidation , the auction will likely rotate back to test the 4300 support area. This would be a test of the breakout's validity.
Plan & Execution
• Focus: Monitoring for volume and time acceptance at these highs.
• Invalidation: Loss of momentum returning to 4300.
Talk to you for the next update.
XAUUSDLooking at the price of Gold from an internal structure view point .i can spot the structure building in lower highs, @ 4,335 & 4,328 respectively this signals to me that sellers ,are slowly moving into the market pricing and buyers maybe potentially getting weak .But however is buyers find their grove and are able to break above 4,335 and come down to give a higher low then buys will bid prices higher again.
XAU/USD 19 December 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 15 December where I mentioned price will target weak internal high priced at 4,353.555 following bearish pullback to discount of 50% internal EQ.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH, therefore, price is now contained within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either M15 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,374.655
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
Gold Context: Breakout from 4-Day Balance & Holiday ThinnessFOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1!
b]Analysis
1. Market Context (The Breakout)
We have observed Short Covering extending above the recent 4-day balance.
• Structure: Yesterday's push brought us nearly to the All-Time High (ATH). Today being Friday, the auction is positioned to test that extreme.
• The Driver: To sustain this breakout and reach the ATH, the initial short covering must transition into New Money buying (Initiative). Without this transition, the move risks being just an emotional inventory adjustment.
2. Scenario & Structure (The Tail)
• Bull Case: If short covering continues and attracts new buying interest, the ATH is the natural magnet.
• Bear Case (The Tail): Yesterday left a selling tail at the highs. If we see Liquidation (failure to hold gains), it confirms that the tail was a valid rejection by Higher Timeframe (OTF) Sellers defending the highs.
3. Holiday Caution (Thin Market)
We are approaching the Christmas and New Year holiday window.
• Risk: Trading volume is thinning out. Low volume markets can be erratic and lack structural integrity. Be careful of "false" moves driven by lack of liquidity rather than genuine value migration.
Plan & Execution
• Bias: Leaning toward the ATH test, but cautious of the "Tail" overhead.
• Invalidation: A drop back into the 4-day balance would negate the breakout and suggest the higher prices were rejected.
Talk to you for the next update.
Gold Context: The "Picket Fence" Highs & USD WeightCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Analysis
1. Market Context (Lack of Acceptance) We are observing a classic "Picket Fence" at the highs. Gold has probed last Friday's high nearly every day, yet we see no acceptance (time + volume) above it.
The Structure: Repeatedly testing a level without breaking through often indicates that Short-Term Traders are dominating the auction. They are fading the extremes but lack the "New Money" power to expand the range.
The Risk: In Market Profile, "failure to facilitate trade" in one direction usually leads to a rotation in the opposite direction. If we cannot discover value higher, the auction will seek liquidity lower.
2. Fundamental Weight (USD Resilience) The upside is being capped by a resilient US Dollar (DXY).
The Driver: The divergence between a "Wait-and-See" Fed (Hawkish Cut) and a weak Europe is keeping a structural bid under the Dollar.
Correlation: As long as DXY holds its liquidation lows and yields remain firm, Gold lacks the macro fuel to break this mechanical resistance.
3. Scenario (Inventory Adjustment) The repeated failure at the highs increases the probability of Long Liquidation .
Target: A rotation back to the 4300 breakout level.
Rationale: This is not necessarily a trend change, but an inventory adjustment to flush out the "laggards" who bought the highs expecting an immediate breakout.
Plan & Execution
Bias: Cautious/Neutral.
Trigger: Watch for a "look above and fail" or a breakdown of the intraday lows to trigger the move to 4300.
Talk to you for the next update.
CADCHF LONG Market structure long on HTFs DW
Entry at Both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection At AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Daily Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 0.57500
H4 Candlestick rejection
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
NZDCAD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs
Entry at Both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure Retest
Daily EMA retest
Around Psychological Level 0.80000
Touching EMA H4
H4 Candlestick rejection
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
EURCAD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs DW
Entry at Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
Daily EMA retest
Around Psychological Level 1.62000
H4 Candlestick rejection
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Gold buy idea Gold Analysis
The 4310 area is the closest reaction zone for gold, with a high probability of price rotating back toward the POC zone.
How to Trade It
1.Wait for price to drop into the 4310–4305 psychological zone.
This is the primary area of interest for a potential reaction.
2. Drop to the 5m timeframe and observe price behavior.
Look for signs of accumulation or slowing momentum within the zone.
3. Entry confirmation is crucial
Only consider the trade if price forms a **pin bar or bullish engulfing candle,accompanied by high volume or volume above the 21-period average.
Invalidation No-Trade Conditions
If price reaches the zone and fails to show any of the confirmations above, avoid taking the trade. Either wait for price to react again at the psychological levels or stand aside until ,high-impact news, provides clearer direction and confirms the zone.
XAUUSD Currently on Gold price is bullish on the 4hr,2hr &1hr
Looking at the structures on the 1hr chart I can see that price put in a higher high at 4,334 and a higher low at 4,315 price ,went further to put in a new higher high at 4,342 .I'm banking to the buy sell as I believe price is likely to continue the uptrend
XAU/USD 18 December 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 15 December 2025.
As mentioned in my analysis and intraday expectation dated 11 December that I will allow price to print pause and to confirm an internal high.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH and reacted at almost precisely 50% internal EQ.
Intraday expectation:
Price to target weak internal high priced at 4,353.555.
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
Bullish Daily Bias After Previous Day Low Being RaidPrice swept yesterday’s low and it's reclaiming it with a potential bullish close, indicating sell-side liquidity absorption. I am therefore targeting long opportunities, anticipating bullish close today and a continuation expansion move tomorrow.
Note: this is quite risky as I usually wait for candle close to confirm the sweep.
Palantir Teases Bers at Resistance, Nasdaq Looks WeakDespite the fact that Santa's rally could see at least a temporary rise for the stock market, I still think the Nasdaq could be breaking to new cycle lows as we head into the new year. Palantir has also caught my eye for a potential short setup, given its bearish clues around resistance.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
BTC: buyer holds 86,116, seller aims lowerThis analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
Hello traders and investors!
On the daily timeframe, the market is in a sideways range. The seller initiative is active.
On one hand, on the daily timeframe the price is being held above 86,116. On the other hand, yesterday’s seller candle, formed on even higher volume than on December 15, swept liquidity above the high of the previous high-volume seller candle.
Based on this, I assume that the price is still likely to move down toward 83,822 within the seller’s initiative.
Profitable trades!






















