I have this question... Why are high yields bad? What is bad? We are in a period of big changes. There are lot's of balances changing, one of them is money. We have just passed (?) the biggest monetary experiment ever (QE) and we are about to enter the successor to that experiment, digital money. Digital money conveniently came about just at the time when...
Another of my big picture looks at the NASDAQ. You can see that we had a strong rally off the bottom of the blue channel, and right now it is around the middle of the channel. In the big picture though, we have barely come down out of the massive QE and low interest rate bubble created after the financial crisis. I find it hard to get too into this rally, we saw...
'THE DISINFLATIONARY PROCESS HAS STARTED' - Jerome Powell on 1-2-2023 at the FOMC Meeting These are the wise words of Jerome Powell from the FOMC meeting yesterday. After this meeting markets pumped worldwide as a confirmation of the bullcase. S&P500 Yesterday we closed at a big resistance point. We need a close above and confirmation. Next Target on SPX =...
Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose...
We live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides...
"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are...
The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold...
The balance between SPX, NDX and DJI changes. Some are stronger than others. If we don't have food on our table and if there is no electricity or internet, who will go buy the new shiny faux bijou? Meta, Tesla and Google need internet to exist. If push comes to shove, they will be the first to drop. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
After its intensive correction to around 11700, the Nasdaq followed a heavy rejection. And in the second attempt, it continued its downward trend by hitting the trend line and confirming it. Currently, due to the preservation of the four-hour trend line and the signs of the end of the price correction in the daily chart, we can have a more bearish view about this...
After the short leg that it had in the last week towards the supply areas in the range of $157, Apple shares were accompanied by heavy selling in several consecutive days. Yesterday, after the publication of the statement of the Federal Reserve and during Mr. Powell's speech, there was heavy selling pressure. The overall structure of the chart is currently...
Here is my chart combining channels, trend lines, and waves. You can see that the NASDAQ has been fighting to stay inside the blue channel since mid-October, but has been trapped under the black channel. If it is going to hold, then this would be a good place. That would keep the blue channel bull rally intact. However, this week's rejection off the top of the...
DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis of NDQ that is in fact showing strong signs of PENDING CAPITULATION but I will leave the rest to INDIVIDUAL INTERPRETATION. POINTS: 1. DEVIATION OF 1,000 POINTS is where NDQ usually finds appropriate CONSOLIDATION to then draw out SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. RSI is DANGEROUSLY OVER EXTENDED and...
Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it? But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23? And another question... have equities peaked? For the past year, bonds have been...
While we are talking about the Bitcoin fractal / logistic curve, I decided to analyze the second bubbly candidate, NDQ/NDX. The .com bubble was fast and extensive, so in retrospect it is easy to see that it was a big bubble. The 2008-2021 big-tech mania may not be apparent but if we just rescale the chart on the price axis (not date) we see that the 1994-2000...
better hold it, they might have already lost it if im being honest. long way down it seems, next year or so will be rough for most. catching the pinnacle is an impossible feat, best to look at the markets objectively and go with the flow rather than trying to time it.
Major confluence suggesting one more corrective move to the downside. Major Fib and Liquidity confluences 7th Corrective Elliot Count 12 months of correction
Overview: let's review the expectations on the update of yesterday: We have completed a triple zigzag in wave b. This count can turn into an impulsive wave with equal probability and validity, meaning the bottom is in. The broadening triangle on NDQ is a very bearish formation Update: we are in wave c of (I) of c of Z. A decisive breakdown through...
Overview: it's been a few weeks that the price action has been really tricky to count. Until yesterday, we had the idea that we have peaked for wave b of Z and have started wave c of Z, which was invalidated yesterday. Update: with the higher high made yesterday, I am considering the following scenario: we have completed a triple zigzag in wave b. One thing...