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GOLD - YALLA XAUMO — WEEKLY COMPREHENSIVE (POST-ATH LIQUIDATION YALLA XAUMO — WEEKLY COMPREHENSIVE (POST-ATH LIQUIDATION EDITION) Week Ahead: 02–06 Feb 2026 | Timezone: Africa/Cairo (UTC+2) Developed by: XAUMO (Mohamed Mahmoud) EDUCATIONAL ONLY — Not financial advice — Not trade signals. ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ 0) WEEKLY SNAPSHOT (FROM YOUR CHARTS + MEMO ANCHORS) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── • ATH shelf (1W/1M “High”): 5,597.04 • Post-ATH liquidation low zone: ~4,860 (Bid ~4,860.39) • Current regime (macro): Post-blowoff → distribution complete → lower-value migration • Prime decision rail (macro): 4,803.99 → 4,770.77 (key “stay-in-repair” band) Weekly framing in one line: → The market ejected from the 51xx–55xx acceptance band and is now building a NEW balance around 49xx–48xx, with 4,770.77 as the “break-or-repair” pivot. 1) WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK (THE ONLY 3 FACTS THAT MATTER) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1) Gold printed ATH (5,597) and immediately transitioned into a liquidation sequence. 2) FRVP/auction logic: value migrated DOWN from the upper acceptance band (5,108–5,255–5,597) into a lower composite value area (49xx–48xx). 3) Footprint behavior inside the new balance: “sweep + reject” near 4,866.81 and 4,855.47 = absorption/short-cover behavior (responsive buyers defending a line). 2) INSTITUTIONAL REGIME CALL (WEEK AHEAD) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Base regime = CORRECTIVE / RE-AUCTION (range + violent mean reversion) Why: • Post-ATH liquidation creates “two-way tape”: bounces get sold (overhead inventory), dips can get absorbed (responsive demand) until the macro driver confirms. • The market must re-build acceptance before any “trend continuation” becomes clean again. Weekly operating definition: • Above 4,770.77 → “Repair auction” remains valid (49xx/50xx reachable again) • Below 4,770.77 (accepted) → “Continuation liquidation” activates (47xx → 46xx → 45xx shelves) 3) FRVP / VALUE MAP (WEEKLY COMPASS — WHERE THE MARKET *WANTS* TO TRADE) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 3.1 Overhead supply stack (expect selling into these until reclaimed/accepted) • 4,922.38–4,923.47 = first sell/flip rail (macro + LTF confluence) • 4,944.78–4,947.58 = local highs / immediate cap • 4,991.94–4,995.80 = monthly “repair ceiling” (major acceptance test) • 5,047.85 = weekly breakdown rail (reclaim changes regime) • 5,108.26 → 5,255.34 = prior weekly acceptance band (heavy inventory) 3.2 Active support / defense pools (where absorption must prove itself) • 4,866.81–4,855.47 = sweep/reject absorption pocket (must keep holding for stability) • 4,815.73–4,795.60 = local buy rails / first “buyers must show up” band • 4,803.99–4,770.77 = breakdown + decision rail (macro pivot) • 4,712.61–4,686.12 = 4H hard support zone • 4,606.31 = hard liquidation rail • 4,509.71–4,495.70 = daily demand shelf (first “real” macro demand zone) • 4,358.98 = deeper daily rail (tail extension) 4) WEEKLY STRUCTURE (AUCTION LOGIC — WHY BOUNCES FAIL UNTIL THEY DON’T) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── A) What liquidation does structurally: • It converts the old acceptance band into overhead supply (late longs trapped). • It drops price through LVNs (thin zones) until the next HVN/value shelf is found. B) What “repair” requires: • Not a wick — ACCEPTANCE (multiple closes + ability to hold above rails). C) What “continuation” requires: • Acceptance below 4,770.77 + repeated failed retests back above it. 5) CROSS-ASSET TRANSMISSION (WEEK AHEAD — WHAT CONFIRMS EACH PATH) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Use this as your confirmation board (desk-style). A) USD (DXY proxy) • USD up strongly → gold rallies cap faster (sell into 4,923 / 4,995 / 5,048). • USD soft → repair has room to travel higher (5,0xx reachable). B) U.S. rates / real-rate expectations • Real-rate expectations up → gold multiple compresses (bear bias remains active). • Real-rate expectations down → gold repair accelerates (range highs test sooner). C) Equities (SPX/NDX) + volatility (VIX) • Risk-off + USD up → gold often “spike then fade” (chop). • Risk-off + USD down → gold trends cleaner (best bull regime). D) “Governance / policy credibility” narrative (from your memo) • Any shock that lifts USD/real-rate expectations tends to re-trigger liquidation mechanics. • Any shock that weakens confidence in USD credibility tends to revive the “debasement hedge” bid and supports upside repair. 6) WEEK AHEAD — SCENARIO TREE (PROBABILITY + TRIGGERS) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── SCENARIO A (BASE) — REPAIR RANGE / RE-AUCTION (55%) • Range logic: Floor 4,770–4,712 ⇄ Ceiling 4,995–5,048 Triggers (confirm): • Holds above 4,770.77 • Attempts reclaim 4,923 then 4,995 (even if failing initially) SCENARIO B (BULL) — V-SHAPE RECLAIM (25%) Requirements: 1) No acceptance below 4,770.77 2) Fast reclaim 4,923 → 4,995 3) Break & accept 5,047.85 Targets (sequence): • 5,108 → 5,255 first, ATH 5,597 only after sustained weekly acceptance SCENARIO C (BEAR) — CONTINUATION LIQUIDATION (20%) Sequence: 1) Repeated rejection at 4,923 / 4,995 2) Break 4,803 → accept below 4,770 3) Auction: 4,712/4,686 → 4,606 4) If 4,606 fails: 4,509/4,495 becomes main magnet Tail: 4,358 if macro stress compounds 7) EXECUTION PLAYBOOK (XAUMO STYLE — CALIBRATED MTF + RISK-MITIGATED) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── You wanted: calibrated MTF entry, SL1 (mitigated), tailgate SL2, TPq + TP2. 7.1 LONG SETUPS (SCALP / INTRADAY) — only when footprint confirms Setup L1: “Sweep → Reclaim” reappears at the absorption pocket • Trigger: - Sweep below 4,866/4,855 AND reclaim/hold back above (reject behavior) • SL1: - Below the sweep low (tight, structure-based) • SL2 (tailgate): - Below 4,770.77 (only if you’re holding for a repair swing) • TPq: - 4,922–4,923 (first sell rail touch) • TP2: - 4,944–4,947 • TP3 (if acceptance improves): - 4,995.80 (major repair ceiling) Setup L2: “Reclaim the first sell rail” (higher-quality, fewer trades) • Trigger: - Acceptance above 4,923.47 (not wick-only) + failed sellback • SL1: - Under reclaimed rail (tight) • SL2: - Under 4,803.99 / 4,770.77 band (tailgate) • TPq: - 4,944–4,947 • TP2: - 4,995.80 • TP3: - 5,047.85 (only if tape is clean and USD isn’t squeezing up) 7.2 SHORT SETUPS (SCALP / INTRADAY) — sell failures into inventory Setup S1: “Fail at first supply” • Trigger: - Rejection / sell imbalance stack at 4,922–4,923 • SL1: - Above rejection high (tight) • SL2: - Above 4,995.80 or 5,047.85 (choose based on entry location) • TPq: - 4,866–4,855 pocket • TP2: - 4,815–4,795 • TP3: - 4,803.99 → 4,770.77 (if acceptance deteriorates) Setup S2: “Sell the repair ceiling” • Trigger: - Failure at 4,991–4,995 with inability to accept above • SL1: - Above 4,995.80 • SL2: - Above 5,047.85 (weekly reclaim = shorts structurally weaker) • TPq: - 4,923 • TP2: - 4,866–4,855 8) WEEKLY “MUST-WATCH” LEVELS (PRINT THIS) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── CEILINGS (inventory / sell rails) • 4,923 | 4,947 | 4,995 | 5,048 | 5,108 → 5,255 FLOORS (defense / decision rails) • 4,866–4,855 | 4,815–4,795 | 4,804–4,771 | 4,713–4,686 | 4,606 • If 4,606 breaks: 4,509–4,495 then 4,358 9) WEEKLY CHECKLIST (DESK DISCIPLINE) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── • Do not confuse “absorption” with “trend reversal.” - Absorption = price stops falling despite sell delta (good for stabilization). - Reversal = acceptance above rails + ability to hold (needs proof). • Only believe upside if: - 4,923 accepts, then 4,995 accepts (sequence matters). • Only believe deeper downside if: - 4,770 accepts below (and retests back above fail). ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ END — WEEKLY COMPREHENSIVE (POST-ATH LIQUIDATION EDITION) Developed by: XAUMO (Mohamed Mahmoud) ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
XAUMO REPORT February 13th🔥 XAU/USD (Gold) Market Maker Roadmap & Trade Playbook: How to Trade Like a Shark 🦈 🔍 Mastering Market Maker Tactics: Liquidity Traps, Reversals & Smart Money Moves Welcome to the ultimate step-by-step roadmap for trading XAU/USD like a market maker. This is not just a trading plan—it’s a dynamic guide that reacts to every move Gold makes. You’ll anticipate retail trader liquidations, institutional traps, and high-probability reversals. Let’s dive in. 📍 Step 1: Identifying the Battlefield (Multi-Timeframe Analysis) Primary Timeframe: 30-Min Chart • This is where the game is played—identifying liquidity zones, VWAP deviations, and smart money footprints. Precision Entry Timeframe: 5-Min Chart • Confirms exact execution points—look for order blocks, volume spikes, and fake breakouts. Directional Bias Timeframes: • 1-Hour Chart: Institutional activity and trend confirmation. • 4-Hour Chart: Macro trend analysis and liquidity positioning. • Daily Chart: The big picture—where market makers have set traps for the week. 📌 Step 2: Market Maker’s Liquidity Traps 🔹 Where Does the Shark Hunt? 🟢 Liquidity Pools Below Price (Retail Stop Loss Clusters) • Key Buy Zone: $2,884 - $2,876 (Market makers hunting retail longs). • VWAP Lower Band: $2,884 → Major support zone. 🔴 Liquidity Pools Above Price (Retail Stop Hunts Before Reversing) • Key Sell Zone: $2,924 - $2,930 (Retail traders trapped at highs). • VWAP Upper Band: $2,930 → Major resistance zone. 📊 Step 3: Entry Playbook – How the Market Maker Moves 📌 Entry Type 1: Normal Long (Buying the Dip in a Bullish Market) Scenario: Price Drops into Liquidity Pool at $2,884 - $2,876 🟢 Entry (Buy Limit) → $2,884 🎯 TP1: $2,910 (POC Reversion) 🎯 TP2: $2,924 (Liquidity Grab) 🎯 TP3: $2,940 (Major Supply Zone) 🚨 SL: $2,874 (Below liquidity grab) 📈 TSL: Move stop-loss to $2,910 after TP1 is hit. What-If Scenarios? ✅ What if price moves to TP1 ($2,910)? • Secure 40% of the position (0.4 lots). • Move SL to breakeven ($2,884). ✅ What if price moves to TP2 ($2,924)? • Secure 30% of the position (0.3 lots). • Adjust TSL to $2,910. ✅ What if price moves to TP3 ($2,940)? • Exit final 30% of position (0.3 lots). • Look for potential reversal short. 📌 Entry Type 2: Normal Short (Selling the Trap at Resistance) Scenario: Price Rises into a Liquidity Trap at $2,924 - $2,930 🔴 Entry (Sell Limit) → $2,924 🎯 TP1: $2,910 (VWAP Reversion) 🎯 TP2: $2,884 (Liquidity Target) 🎯 TP3: $2,860 (Deeper Flush) 🚨 SL: $2,930 (Above liquidity trap) 📉 TSL: Move stop-loss to $2,910 after TP1 is hit. What-If Scenarios? ✅ What if price moves to TP1 ($2,910)? • Secure 40% of position (0.4 lots). • Move SL to breakeven ($2,924). ✅ What if price moves to TP2 ($2,884)? • Secure 30% of position (0.3 lots). • Adjust TSL to $2,910. ✅ What if price moves to TP3 ($2,860)? • Exit final 30% of position (0.3 lots). • Look for bullish re-entry. 📌 Entry Type 3: Breakout Play (London & NYC Sessions) Scenario: Price Breaks Above $2,924 with Strong Volume 🔵 Entry (Buy Stop): $2,926 🎯 TP1: $2,940 (Fib Extension) 🎯 TP2: $2,948 (Final Supply) 🚨 SL: $2,914 📈 TSL: Trail behind VWAP. ✅ What-If Scenarios? 🚀 If price rejects at $2,940, exit early. ⚠️ If price breaks down below $2,924, flip short. 📌 Entry Type 4: Fakeout Trap (Market Maker Reversal) Scenario: Price Breaks Above $2,930, But Volume Fails 🔴 Entry (Sell Stop Below Fakeout): $2,926 🎯 TP1: $2,910 (VWAP Test) 🎯 TP2: $2,884 (Liquidity Pool) 🚨 SL: $2,940 ✅ What-If Scenarios? ⚡ If volume spikes above $2,930, close the trade. ⚡ If price breaks down fast, hold until TP2. 🔄 Step 4: How to Scale In & Out Like a Market Maker ✅ Scaling In: • Add 0.2 lots per VWAP test when price confirms direction. • Example: Buy 0.5 lots at $2,884, then add 0.2 lots at $2,876 if confirmation appears. ✅ Scaling Out: • TP1: Exit 40% of position. • TP2: Exit 30% of position. • TP3: Exit final 30% of position. 🔥 Step 5: Market Maker Playbook – Dynamic Adjustments What Happens If… ✅ Gold Moves in One Direction Without Pullbacks? • Use VWAP deviations & RSI overbought zones to time reversals. ✅ Gold Breaks a Key Level & Holds? • Flip position & enter on pullback to broken level. ✅ Volume Spikes on a Level & Price Stalls? • Exit 50% immediately & move SL to breakeven. ✅ Gold Fakes Out & Reverses? • Look for MACD cross + RSI divergence & enter opposite trade. 📌 Step 6: Session-Specific Execution Plan 🎯 Tokyo Session (Scalping Liquidity Traps) ✅ Market Conditions: • Lower volatility but accumulation phase for later sessions. • Market makers set up liquidity traps. ✅ Best Trades: • Buy VWAP Lower Band at $2,884, target $2,910. • Scalp breakout above $2,910 to $2,924 if volume confirms. ✅ Key Risks: • If price fails to hold $2,884, expect deeper retrace to $2,876. • If liquidity trap at $2,924 triggers, expect NYC reversal. 🎯 London Session (Breakouts & Momentum Moves) ✅ Market Conditions: • High volatility from European banks entering the market. • Market makers manipulate price to liquidate both sides. ✅ Best Trades: • Breakout Buy above $2,926 (only with strong volume). • Short rejection at $2,924 resistance (fakeout trap). • Buy liquidity sweep at $2,884 after fake breakdown. ✅ Key Risks: • If price consolidates between $2,910-$2,924, expect NYC move. • If breakout fails at $2,926, market will hunt $2,884 liquidity. 🎯 NYC Session (Volatility, Traps, and Trend Reversals) ✅ Market Conditions: • Peak liquidity with high volume from US market open. • Major liquidity traps executed before trend moves. ✅ Best Trades: • Buy deep liquidity trap at $2,884 for reversal. • Short rejection of $2,940-$2,948 liquidity grab. • Breakout buy above $2,926 ONLY if supported by order flow. ✅ Key Risks: • If price stalls at $2,924 resistance, expect mean reversion. • If NYC starts with a fakeout, expect price to reverse aggressively. 📌 Step 7: Order Flow & Delta Analysis 🟢 Bullish Confirmation: • Positive delta + increasing volume at support = Strong buy setup. • Aggressive limit buyers absorbing sell orders at $2,884. 🔴 Bearish Confirmation: • Negative delta + sell imbalances at resistance = Strong short setup. • Market makers triggering buy orders at $2,924 before dumping price. 📌 Step 8: Institutional Execution Plan 📈 Scenario 1: Bullish Trend Continuation Setup 🔹 Criteria: Price holds above VWAP & MAs, bullish order flow. 🔹 Entry: Buy Limit at $2,884 or Buy Stop at $2,926. 🔹 TP1: $2,910, TP2: $2,924, TP3: $2,940. 🔹 SL: $2,874, move to breakeven at TP1. 🔹 Scaling: Add 0.2 lots per VWAP test. 📉 Scenario 2: Bearish Liquidity Trap & Reversal Setup 🔸 Criteria: Price rejects $2,924 resistance with high volume. 🔸 Entry: Sell Limit at $2,924. 🔸 TP1: $2,910, TP2: $2,884, TP3: $2,860. 🔸 SL: $2,930 (Above liquidity trap). 🔸 Scaling: Add 0.2 lots per new rejection at resistance. 📌 Step 9: Advanced “What-If” Management for Market Reactions ✅ What if price consolidates near VWAP $2,910? • No trade until a breakout or liquidity sweep occurs. • Wait for volume confirmation at key levels ($2,884 or $2,924). ✅ What if price breaks above $2,926 with strength? • Hold longs to TP3 ($2,940) with trailing stop. ✅ What if price fakes out above $2,930 but fails? • Flip short aggressively with TP at $2,910 and $2,884. ✅ What if price crashes below $2,876? • Look for deep liquidity trap at $2,860 before re-entering long. ✅ What if momentum dries up in NYC session? • Exit 50% of all positions & tighten SLs aggressively. 📌 Final Step: The Market Maker’s Complete Daily Game Plan 🔹 Buy the liquidity grab at $2,884. 🔹 Sell the retail trap at $2,924. 🔹 Only play breakouts with strong volume confirmation. 🔹 Avoid consolidation—trade the extremes. 🔹 Adapt dynamically—VWAP, RSI, order flow, and smart money tracking. 📌 This is how you dominate XAU/USD like a market maker—executing liquidity sweeps before the crowd reacts. 🦈 📊 Final Take: The Market Maker’s Daily Game Plan 🔹 Buy the liquidity grab at $2,884. 🔹 Sell the retail trap at $2,924. 🔹 Play breakouts with confirmation. 🔹 Adapt dynamically—use VWAP, RSI, volume, and order flow. 📌 This is how you trade XAU/USD like a true market maker, swallowing retail traders before they even realize what happened. 🦈
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
A traders’ playbook – technically long, tactically cautious We roll into August where after a scorching run in risk assets, the NAS100 closed July +12.6%, the best gain since April 2020 (rallied 15.2%). In Europe, the FRA40 was the best performing EU equity index, +8.9% for July, while in APAC/Asia the AUS200 rallied 5.7% and trending beautifully into FY earnings. Ethereum gaining a massive 67% in July has shown us once again that if risk is going up then crypto is the high beta play and we watch this space for a new leg higher in this move. FX markets were less clear, with the NOK working well as a pure pro-risk FX play, while the once safe-haven JPY has also shone as US bond yields fell, validating the BoJ’s dovish stance – clients have been heavy buyers of JPY of late and continue to hold a positive JPY stance. We start the week pricing on a slight negative vibe, with China releasing a poor manufacturing PMI print, with the index at 49.0 and pulling into contraction territory – geopolitics was looking like making somewhat of a return with US/China relations in focus as talk of a possible Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan did the rounds, but that looks to not the case now. As we look ahead, we consider what themes and event risks will drive markets this week. With the Fed moving to a more data-dependent/balanced structure last week felt as though we saw a temporary ‘goldilocks’ scenario – if the data proved to be poor then rates hikes are priced out, bond yields fall and the USD found sellers – subsequently, we buy growth equity, crypto, gold and the JPY. If the data proves to be better, then we speculate the recession trade may have gone too far. One thing is clear, bad news has been bad news for the USD and certainly versus the JPY, with USDJPY -2.1% on the week – falling through the 50-day MA, which has worked as a primary trend filter since March. From a momentum perspective, my indicators are bullish and there are few reasons to be short – the NAS100 has some big levels to break into 13k – an upside break here could suggest adding to longs. The USDX tests the lower levels of the regression channel (drawn from the Jan lows), while EURUSD consolidates in a 1.0100 to 1.0270 range. XAUUSD looks interesting for $1786 but requires a weaker USD and lower real rates and SpotCrude needs to break out of a $95 to $103.70 range. The battle lines are drawn, but tactically I would be looking more favourably at short-risk trades – as always, when the tactical/fundamental view and technicals disagree on the longer-timeframes I'll back Mr Market, especially if using leverage. However, I see a refresh this week in the markets thinking and good economic should see the market price a greater chance of another 75bp hike from the Fed in the September meeting and now US Q2 earnings are drawing to a close, and financial conditions are more accommodative than they were before the Fed hiked the fed funds rate by 75bp last week - one suspects the Fed will not want to take the foot the inflation break just yet. Feels like the skew of risk is for the Fed to gently tighten financial conditions and discourage greater risk-taking from hedge funds. We can also see the bank reserves held at the Fed increased by $40.4b last week – this looks at the liability side of the balance sheet and has correlated well with growth and high beta equity and gives a good guide to liquidity. If this was to turn lower, and we won’t know until Thursday, then it will hold well with a weaker equity tape. Looking at the calendar we have the RBA and BoE meeting – we can see GBPUSD 1-week implied vols are still quite elevated and could easily see some moves play out in the quid. I think they go 25bp myself, which offers moderate GBP risk, but the job of the trader is to run the distribution of potential outcomes and assess the sort of moves that could play out. In the US, the ISM manufacturing report, payrolls, and Fed speakers will garner my close attention. After a huge July, we turn to the Northern Hemisphere summer holiday trading conditions – it doesn’t feel like traders should be shutting up shop and taking a break given the unfolding dynamics, even if it can be the best thing for the mind.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
BTC Playbook: Relief Rally targets and possible BottomHey all! It seems like my idea (posted 3 weeks ago) about a potential relief rally is coming to fruition (with a bit of a delay). I'll keep this analysis quick and simple by giving you all the possible resistances and where I believe the bear market bottom is. Here we go: Red lines: The red lines are all my price targets for this relief rally. I give emphasis on the 200W MA and the 50D MA area. If the price breaks the first, there's a chance we visit the second but I personally believe the probability of heading even higher (towards the 28800 area) is not as great. If you're wondering why I picked these prices go back to the bull run and you will see those where areas of consolidation during previous upside. As I said tho, for me the most important levels are those around 200W MA and 50D MA. Green lines: Green lines are all tested supports. Ironically, all those levels were hiding in plain sight. All of them are levels from November 2020 (right before we broke 2017 ATH) Those are levels you might considering buying, of course depending on the Price Action (context while visiting each level may vary, making each one a good buy or bad one. Use your brain) Yellow lines: Those are untested supports. For context I've written the dates they come from so you can check why these prices are important. There's high probability these yellow lines are the bear market bottom. If not then my eyes would target the 11800-12500 area as an extreme bear market bottom (absolute lowest price I could ever imagine is 10800 and I think it's highly unlikely we'll see it) Blue background "Zone" = Ranging zone. Not terrible buys but expect a lot of chopping Green background "Zone" = Good buying opportunity zone. Very good prices to build some spot. Potentially that's also gonna be the bottom unless we go for the extreme scenario of sub 14k. !!! INVALIDATION !!! -- My Idea for a relief rally is invalidated if we get extended price action below 20.4k or daily close below 19.2k or weekly close below 19.6k !!! Generally, I believe we have lee-way, thus, possible upside until either 13/7 when CPI comes out or 19/7 when earnings start to get published. I am expecting bad earnings to be announced starting 19/7 and on. On top of that we have FOMC meeting the 27/7 and GDP for Q2 coming out the 29/7 (which will confirm we're in a recession) So whatever you do make sure to secure profits till 13/7 max 19/7 In short, upside for up to 2 weeks, then return into the inside week range (19600-21800) and eventually towards the actual bear market bottom. This whole process might take a month or two, so, stay vigilant and be patient. Good Luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Athantonios
2
The GBPUSD playbook – how Brexit could play into price movesIf you like volatility GBP is the place to look, and we can see one-month GBPUSD implied volatility (vol) at 14.0%, relative to say AUDUSD and EURUSD vol at 9.34% and 7.57% respectively. To put this into perspective, the implied move in GBPUSD over the coming month sits at 413-points from spot, and this expiry encompasses the expected Commons vote on 10 December. As we can see on the daily chart, a 413-point move takes us into the top of the multi-month range, as well as the 38.2% Fibo of the April to August sell-off. How price reacts around here would be very interesting. Volatility is naturally directionally agnostic, so a 413-point move could easily take us through the lower esculents of the range at 1.2600 and potentially into 1.2200. The interesting part is that that we have seen encouraging signs of cooperation between Theresa May and the EU, involving a Free Trade area with a customs arrangement. This comes at a time where various factions of the Tory party have failed to garner the needed 48 letters to prompt a confidence vote. So, the prospect of May being removed from power has diminished for now, and that has supported GBP. Once this weekend’s EU Summit is out of the way, the real attention turns to whether the draft Withdrawal Agreement passes through the Commons and at this point that seems low. Therefore, it seems logical that GBP could be sold into the vote, although, we can already see from the weekly CoT report and GBPUSD risk reversals that traders are already heavily short the GBP and have paid up for GBP put vol. The downside in cable is therefore cushioned to an extent, but should the MPs in the Commons vote down the deal we will likely see another sharp move lower. Vols imply a move into 1.2400, so a move into say 1.2200 and I would be a willing buyer of GBP, as my base-case is that May will head to Brussels to re-work the deal, and on the second attempt in the Commons and it may pass, causing a decent rally as bearish positioning is unwound. As you can see, the Brexit playbook is diverse, but vols tell us a decent move could be on the cards and this has huge implications for stop placement and position sizing. Disclaimer. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
by Pepperstone
EUR/USD - Day Trade AnalysisIn this EUR/USD analysis I am using the 15-min time frame. On the monthly and weekly chart for EUR/USD the pair can be seen in a current uptrend. Price may continue to go up from its current point but If I were to enter I would place my entry at retrace a little but the pair looks strong. As a day trading perspective this analysis I would enter this pair at the bottom support zone between 1.2342 and 1.2352. This is a preferable resistance level that fits my strategy; Depending on where I placed the trade I would exit the trade at my take profit zone between 1.2362 and 1.2370. I would only place this trade if the price hit my preferable support zone. If not, I would not enter and appreciate the market for its graceful twists and turns. Happy trading!
Long
by austinlmkc
ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO (THE BEST TREND INDICATOR)Ichimoku Kinko Hyo “one look equilibrium chart” In my personal opinion is the best all in one indicator, it defines support and resistance, identifies trend direction, gauges momentum and provides trading signals. The best part about ichimoku is not only that it gives you a directional bias "at one glance" but also it provides trading signals. These signals can be used by themselves or together and are very powerful. There are 5 signals and are as followed: Bullish Signals: Kijun-Sen Cross - A bullish signal occurs when the price crosses from below to above the Kijun Sen. A weak bullish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo. A neutral bullish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo. A strong bullish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo. Tenkan-Sen / Kijun Sen Cross (TK Cross) - A bullish signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen crosses from below to above the Kijun Sen. A weak bullish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo. A neutral bullish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo. A strong bullish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo. Senkou-Span Cross (Kumo Twist) - A bullish signal occurs when the Senkou Span A crosses from below to above the Senkou Span B. A weak bullish signal occurs if the current price is below the Kumo. A neutral bullish signal occurs if the current price is inside the Kumo. A strong bullish signal occurs if the current price is above the Kumo. Chikou-Span Cross - A bullish signal occurs when the Chikou Span rises from below to above the price. A weak bullish signal occurs if the current price is below the Kumo. A neutral bullish signal occurs if the current price is inside the Kumo. A strong bullish signal occurs if the current price is above the Kumo. Kumo Breakout - A bullish signal occurs when the price goes upwards through the top of the Kumo. Bearish Signals: Kijun-Sen Cross - A bearish signal occurs when the price crosses from above to below the Kijun Sen. A weak bearish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo. A neutral bearish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo. A strong bearish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo. Tenkan-Sen / Kijun Sen Cross (TK Cross) - A bearish signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen crosses from above to below the Kijun Sen. A weak bearish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo. A neutral bearish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo. A strong bearish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo. Senkou-Span Cross (Kumo Twist) - A bearish signal occurs when the Senkou Span A crosses from above to below the Senkou Span B. A weak bearish signal occurs if the current price is above the Kumo. A neutral bearish signal occurs if the current price is inside the Kumo. A strong bearish signal occurs if the current price is below the Kumo. Chikou-Span Cross - A bearish signal occurs when the Chikou Span falls from above to below the price. A weak bearish signal occurs if the current price is above the Kumo. A neutral bearish signal occurs if the current price is inside the Kumo. A strong bearish signal occurs if the current price is below the Kumo. Kumo Breakout - A bearish signal occurs when the price goes downwards through the bottom of the Kumo. Also all 5 lines can be used to provides levels of support and resistance. Note the Kijun-sen can be the strongest level of support or resistance, it is the equilibrium level and as the market gets over extended price will eventually return to Kijun-sen (equilibrium). Chikou-span prints itself in the past, by using its pivots will also provide strong levels of support and resistance. This illustration is based on the conventional way of trading the ichimoku. The settings can be configured to better fit the market, however I mainly use the default settings. My preferred time frame with ichimoku is on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
Education
by stephenleachman
18
MY TOOLBOX (MY TECHNICAL TOOLS)My toolbox is a list of technical tools that I implement in my strategies. Each of these technical tools can be used separately or together depending on the strategy, understanding the purpose of each tool and knowing how to apply them within the market is crucial to their accuracy. Below is how I personally apply these technicol tools within my toolbox. Fibonacci Retracement: After price makes an impulse move I use fibonacci retracements to find levels that price can end the retracement and continue back into the direction of the overall trend. The levels I use .386 .50 .764 .786 and .886 percent levels. In a strong trend I Look for price to at least retrace .386 percent of the impulse movie. Many times different triangle patterns will form around this level. The .50 and .618 I like to consider Reasonable retracement levels of the overall trend. The .764 .786 and .886 I like to use on a type of 1, 2 ,3 reversal where price makes a strong impulse move against the trend (A retracement) on this movie is where I draw the fibonacci retracement looking for price not to make a new high or low (continue trend) but rather reverse at the .764 .786 or the .886 percent level. Fibonacci Expansion: After price makes an impulse move and a retracement or consolidation, I then use a fibonacci expansion to find potential targets, where the next impulse move might end. Levels I use .618 - 1.00 and 1.618 percent levels. Note that a 100 percent expansion is an equal mashered move of the first impulse. Andrew's pitchfork: I Use andrew's pitchfork to find the slope of price. The median line I use as a gauge to the strength of that slope. If price is trading in a clear andrews pitchfork (at least 3 touches as support and/or resistance) and if price is trading below the median line then I consider it to be a weaker slop then if price was trading above the median line. these slope lines can act as support and resistance. Simple Moving Average (SMA): I only use the 100 and 200 DAY moving averages on a daily chart as passable support or resistance. Also to provide a longer term directional bias. If the 100 day MA Is above the 200 and price is above both then a quick longer term bios will be bullish and visa versa if the 100 day MA is below the 200 and price is below both then the longer term bios is bearish. The MA cross I would consider as a change or pasibol change in the overall trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI): I use Relative strength index (RSI) as a gauge of momentum and strength of the market. Also I use RSI as a trigger into a trade in certain strategies. I scale my RSI where I can see the 60 and 40 levels and use a 20 period instead of the default 14. I look at 5 levels on the RSI - 70, 60, 50, 40 and 30. If RSI is above 70 its strong bullish momentum. If Above 60 but doesn't pierce 70 bullish momentum. If bouncing from 60 to 40 I consider that a range. and visa versa for bearish momentum, If RSI is below 30, strong bearish momentum. If below 40 but can't pierse below 30 bearish momentum. Note I like to see a 40 hold on a retracement in a uptrend and 60 hold on a retracement in a downtrend. I also watch for divergence as an indication of a reversal and sometimes use trend lines on the RSI for a trigger into a trade. I do this only on a lower time frame 5 or 15 min.
Education
by stephenleachman
6
OPENING RANGES (PROVIDING A MARKET BIAS)A opening range is when the market opens at a particular time such as for the year, month, week and day or session in forex. The market sets a high, a low and reviets those highs and lows but fails to break through creating the range. I personally need to see price test a level at least twice making a type of double top, double bottom forming the range. opening ranges are the same concept as any other type of range, your ether playing inside the range or waiting for a breakout. once price breaks out it becomes a trading opportunity and even more opening ranges can set a direction bias of the market. The types of opening ranges: Daily Or Session in forex open range - Assets traded on an exchange, Look for price to set an OR in the beginning of trade on that exchange. Forex on the other hand watch for the open of the session to set a doble high, doble low and whait for the break. Remember in trading the session Opening range breakout only trade currencies correlated to that session. This is an intraday trade setup and can not be used for a longer term bias. Weekly opening range - In forex the weekly open begins on sunday at 5PM EST, From this time look for the market to set a double high, double low marking the range. Remember that time is not an issue, to set a weekly OR it could take 1 day or a couple of days the most important thing is that it set at least a double top & bottom befor the break. Once price breaks to one side and there's a pullback that's supported, the breakout direction can now also be used as a bias for that week. a lot of times there will be at least 2 impulse moves on a weekly OR break , an impulse move after the pullback consolidation and then another impulse move usually the second impulse move is towards the end of the week. monthly Opening range - I personally don't use monthly OR much but they can give a directional bias for that month. Yearly opening range - which can be used to provide an overall direction for the year. Usually the first couple of months within the year markets will make a large range trying to figure out where it should go Once that range breaks to one side it's a owerful signal that price will continue in that direction for a while. Remember this is a longer term time horizon so yearly OR breaks can lead into big moves. NOTES: I only trade the session and weekly Opening Range breakouts, the monthly and yearly OR breaks I only use for a longer term bias. Trading the OR Breakout is always best to go in the direction of the trend. Conventional Way To Trade The Bullish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a break of the top of range. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a pullback at the breakout level. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. Conventional Way To Trade The Bearish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Sell a break of the Bottom of range. (3)Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1) Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2) Sell a pullback at the breakout level. (3) Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4) Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different.
Education
by stephenleachman
BREAKOUT VS PULLBACK (AGGRESSIVE VS CONSERVATIVE)Breakouts and pullbacks are both points of entry. A breakout is when price sets a high and or low and later pushes through (breaking out) setting a new high or low. According to my personal trading plan, trading breakouts are more of an aggressive entry point due to the potential for false breakouts and possibly poor risk - reward. It is vital to wait for the breakout candle close before entering, (It is not considered a true breakout until the breakout candle closes) and a lot of times this could lead to a not so attractive risk - reward. On the other hand trading a breakout could give an entry that price might not pullback to thus providing a good entry point. The most important factor of a breakout is momentum some would say volatility but as I mentioned previously I consider volatility the rapid change in price whereas momentum is the direction in which that volatility is moving. There must be signs of strong momentum in the direction of the breakout If not then what looks like a breakout could just be volatility and high volatility with little momentum leads to false breakouts. (I use RSI but You could use any momentum based indicator to gage market momentum and just by waiting to for the breakout candle to close is a sign of momentum the higher or lower the close from the breakout point the stronger the momentum. VS. Pullbacks: After price makes a clean breakout, Its a very high probability that price will return to (Or Around) the breakout point. In my personal trading plan trading a pullback is considered a conservative point of entry. This is due to the fact that given price made the breakout providing a directional bias, entering in on a pullback could provide better risk - reward. Pullbacks can appen very quickly or they could take awhile and possibly could never occur at all. on pullbacks I like to see momentum winding down kind of gearing up for the next push. Know the market condition and implement the appropriate entry point into the strategy that best fits.
Education
by stephenleachman
3
FALSE BREAKOUTS (MARKET DECEPTION)All Warfare Is Based Upon Deception: This was spoke by the 6th century Chinese general Sun Tzu. "All my rules in trading and the foundation of my trading plan itself is based off the book The Art Of War". So how do I apply this quote to the markets: The goal in trading is to accurately predict the future price of an asset and to profit off your predictions. Theres only 2 types of analysis, funcomentol and technical so there are 2 areas we can find market deception, one side deceiving another for financial gains. In fundamentals, market deception is found within companies and centrolbanks. In technical analysis It found in false breakouts and here's why: False breakouts happen when the market is in a consolidation or a range usually after a trending move ending at a support or esistance. It is a time of low volatility. after awhile of consolidation or ranging there will be a breakout and this breakout could be considered as ether a reversal or continuation of the overall trend. the deception is when price breaks out all the breakout traders are buying or selling into that direction. where's the logical stop loss level in this type of trade 9 times out of 10 above or below a previous high or low. unforchunatly the market makers and quants know that, so they slam price back the other way taking out all the stops in its path. (If you bought a breakout you're stop would be a sell order enough of these sell orders in one location once triggered would act like a push to a large boulder downhill.) In conclusion this is a deceptive move for market makers, Proprietary traders and quants, the so called smart money to add liquidity to the markets and of course make profits for themselves on the losses of others which is what trading is all about. NOTE: There's 2 types of false breaks, first being the above described based on deception which happens in a low volatility and the second are false breaks that happen in high volatility like in a very choppy market.The second I don't pay much mind to because I don't trade in choppy markets. The first, on the other hand is very important to watch for in low volatility at key support and resistance levels. being able to spot false breaks gives you the ability to utilise them and if caught in one and faked out of the trade, the understand of why gives you the ability to turn a disadvantage into an advantage.
Education
by stephenleachman
3
OPENING RANGES An opening range is when the market opens at a particular time such as for the year, month, week and day or session in forex.The market sets a high, a low and reviets those highs and lows but fails to break through creating the range. I personally need to see price test a level at least twice making a type of double top, double bottom forming the range. opening ranges are the same concept as any other type of range, your ether playing inside the range or waiting for a breakout. once price breaks out it becomes a trading opportunity and even more opening ranges can set a direction bias of the market. The types of opening ranges: Daily Or Session in forex open range - Assets traded on an exchange, Look for price to set an OR in the beginning of trade on that exchange. Forex on the other hand watch for the open of the session to set a doble high, doble low and whait for the break. Remember in trading the session Opening range breakout only trade currencies correlated to that session. This is an intraday trade setup and can not be used for a longer term bias. Weekly opening range - In forex the weekly open begins on sunday at 5PM EST, From this time look for the market to set a double high, double low marking the range. Remember that time is not an issue, to set a weekly OR it could take 1 day or a couple of days the most important thing is that it set at least a double top & bottom befor the break. Once price breaks to one side and there's a pullback that's supported, the breakout direction can now also be used as a bias for that week. a lot of times there will be at least 2 impulse moves on a weekly OR break , an impulse move after the pullback consolidation and then another impulse move usually the second impulse move is towards the end of the week. monthly Opening range - I personally don't use monthly OR much but they can give a directional bias for that month. Yearly opening range - which can be used to provide an overall direction for the year. Usually the first couple of months within the year markets will make a large range trying to figure out where it should go Once that range breaks to one side it's a powerful signal that price will continue in that direction for a while. Remember this is a longer term time horizon so yearly OR breaks can lead into big moves. NOTES: I only trade the session and weekly Opening Range breakouts, the monthly and yearly OR breaks I only use for a longer term bias. Trading the OR Breakout is always best to go in the direction of the trend. Conventional Way To Trade The Bullish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a break of the top of range. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a pullback at the breakout level. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. Conventional Way To Trade The Bearish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Sell a break of the Bottom of range. (3)Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1) Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2) Sell a pullback at the breakout level. (3) Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4) Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different.
Education
by stephenleachman
MARKET CONDITIONS - THE FUNDAMENTAL BASIS OF STRATEGYMarket condition are the foundation to every strategy. There are 2 primary market condition Trend and Range, ether the price is making new highs or lows (trending) or is stuck between a previously established high and low (ranging). Within these 2 types of market conditions comes sub conditions such as that the market can only move in 3 directions up (bull trend), down (bear trend) or sideways (range). The price movements are considered waves and within the 3 directions that the market is able to move can be extrapolated 4 wave types, which are as follows: Impulse wave - a strong bullish or bearish move usually making new highs or lows in a trend. Profit taking wave - this happens at the end of the impuls wave and can be a retracement - pullback or consolidation. Reversal wave - failure to make a new highor low which usually happens at the top or bottom of a trend and is a signal of a reversal or deep retracement of the overall trend. Range wave - this wave just bounces of a previously established high and low. They are mainly waves that just zig zag back and forth. Knowing the direction and wave types we can now see that there's only 4 logical areas within the market in which to build or use a pre configured strategy. These areas are as follows: Breakout. Swing, Pullback. Trend Reversals. Range. Remember, Build the strategy to fit the market you CAN NOT build the market to fit the strategy. That also goes for aplying the stratogy, to apply the propper stratogy for the typ of market condition. Also a key factor in market conditions is the speed and strength at which price moves. The slide above is an illustration of my way in understanding the markets speed and strength or momentum. The definition I give to volatile and volatility is Explosive, Rappied, it is the speed that the market changes price. Momentum is a directional compass to that volatility. So There are volatile trends where price is rapidly moving up or down providing very little retracements or pullbacks. There are normal trends where price is moving steady up or down providing deeper retracements, a nice steady trend. Then there are volatile Ranges they are the raped moving ranges that make many false breakouts. last there are quiet ranges, this is a tight slower moving range, a time of market equilibrium. Remember the market always will have to come back to a point of equilibrium. Identifying market conditions is the first step in my trading plan. Before I do anything else I take blank charts of the assets i'm looking to trade and look at the market conditions to see what is price doing then i'll look to apply a strategy tailored to fit that type of market condition.
Education
by stephenleachman
SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE (TREND CONTINUATION)The symmetrical triangle is a trend continuation pattern. this pattern starts out with an impulse move followed by a period of consolidation. The consolidation forms lower highs and higher lows forming the sideways triangle. once price starts to squeezes together the momentum buildup usually shouts price back into the direction of the trend, The first Impulse move. Usually you can expect to see after a breakout price to move the distance of the mouth of the triangle. Conventional way to trade a bullish Symmetrical Triangle pattern: -----Breakout----- (1) Wait for a clear Symmetrical Triangle to form. (2) Buy a break of previous high. (3) Stop below the previous Low. (4) Target Is the Distance Between The Mouth Of The Triangle Added To The Breakout. -----PullBack----- (1) Wait for a clear Symmetrical Triangle to form. (2) Wait for price to break and close above previous high. (3) Buy pullback at point of triangle. (4) Stop below the previous Low. (5) Target Is the Distance Between The Mouth Of The Triangle Added To The Breakout. Conventional way to trade a Bearish Symmetrical Triangle pattern: -----Breakout----- (1) Wait for a clear Symmetrical triangle to form. (2) Sell when price breaks the previous low. (3) Stop Abouve the previous High. (4) Target Is the Distance Between The Mouth Of The Triangle Added To The Breakout. -----PullBack----- (1) Wait for a clear Symmetrical triangle to form. (2) Wait for price to break and close below previous low. (3) Sell pullback at point of triangle . (4) Stop Abouve the previous High. (5) Target Is the Distance Between The Mouth Of The Triangle Added To The Breakout.
Education
by stephenleachman
1
MORNING STAR - CANDLE FORMATION (BULLISH REVERSAL)Consists of 3 candlesticks. The first candle is a down candle. The second candle creates a newlow and is a relatively small Candle. This can be a doji or hammer type of pattern. The third candle is a strong bullish candle that reverses the first 2 candles. NOTE: This is only a valid formation when at a key level of support. TRIGGER: Buy on the open of the next candle after the morning star is formed. After the morning star is formed wait for the open of the next candle to Buy a retrace of the morning star.
Education
by stephenleachman