Since mid-July the 3-Month T-bill yield has been trending upwards on quarterly basis (broke out from the 1st standard deviation from 66-day mean amid expanding volatility) The yield is a choppy instrument, however current uptrend (if it holds) may actually signal Federal Reserve rate hike expectations by institutional market participants. 3-Month T-bill is...
all comments are on the chart
Recent expectations in the media regarding Federal Reserve rate hike look a bit overblown. What the Fed is actually planning to raise is the Target Range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Effective rate, however, now trades firmly below the upper border of the range (0.25%), signalling no actual pressure to raise the Target Range. The nature of this...
Technicals on the chart. Fundamental thoughts. - two consecutive quarterly falls for CPI data and petrol price had a decline of nearly 10% - milk dairy prices on the decline - Looking RBNZ to set a dovish tone in the near future. - USD Rate hikes around the corner. Reasons listed, I would safely say the pair will stay range bound.