In an unmistakeable correlation, a higher short end of the curve means gold is relatively less attractive to own. This argument has strong claims on both reason and evidence... Hence, with a hikepending, watch for gold lower.
Looking back since 1995 we see clear price behavior pattern in SPX: 1. Smooth and steady climbing of the Index throughout years. 2. Just before a major reversal we see a price action widening and choppiness increase. 3. Bearish reversal following a close below the Fast MA line. As you can see, since 2015 we are inside the trading range period. It is wider...
$EURUSD suffered great losses last week as the Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the 100$ price zone with Yellen's help. Now the Dollar Index is testing the monthly 61.8 Fibonacci level (102$) and $EURUSD is testing 2015 lows - The bottom of a weekly trading range. The harmonic pattern hasn't been violated yet and X will be tested as well. Focus Zone -...
The beginning of October saw Gold making a bearish break of the descending triangle following positive data from the US to support a December rate hike. Since then, Gold has slowly retraced and is now hovering around the 200 day moving average. As India begins its Diwali festival and continues through the wedding season, Gold demand is expected to increase. Along...
AUDUSD has been trading within an ascending triangle for the majority of this year and a breakout is expected within the next two weeks. With the US Dollar hitting nine month highs earlier this week, a December rate hike is strongly expected which would strengthen the greenback further. Meanwhile, the pressure of a rate cut has eased in Australia after inflation...
Long term TA supporting my opinion of Gold being bearish ahead of the interest rate increase cycle. November & December FOMC meeting will set the tone. Caution against Italy's referendum on December 4th - Likely to close short before hand and re-take ahead of the December FOMC meeting. Second probability with no rate increase and a dovish guidance will remain...
Even with the disappointing unemployment claims release today, the overall trend of unemployment claims is on a downwards trend which supports continuous jobs creation and thus the case of a rate hike by the Fed in December. The dollar rally is likely set to retest the yearly high at 12,300.
-Break of trend -Candle formation -Friday Yellen speech expecting some hints about rate hike This looks like a short to me Safe and successful trading!
From a technical perspective the USDJPY put in a bearish engulfing pattern on 7/21, which coincided with the channel trend line and major resistance area of 105.5-106.5. Now today we put in a 4 hour bearish pin bar retesting that same area. The retail crowd has also been adding to their longs recently, which now sits 59% long. Just more evidence that we're...
Its been very evident that even the strongest bears went positive since BREXIT on Precious Metals for intermittent rally or pullback from the supercycles as we call. Everybody would agree that 1300-1310 would serve as strong demand area and resistance from previous tops especially March 2015 highs. The breach woud open the gate to 12XX and bear would take thier...
Related to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World". This trade relates to a steepening of the US yield curve as rates adjust upwards through either rising inflation or a pickup in US growth (or both) having been driven to a record low in June. BKX Index (candles) BKX / SPX (blue) US10Y (grey) What is...
Goldman Sachs on July FOMC Decision : - The run of positive economic news in recent weeks has coincided with generally dovish comments from Fed offcials. Policymakers have indicated that they are not âbehind the curveâ, and have expressed increased uncertainty about the neutral level of interest rates. We would treat recent comments with caution, however,...
Reuters Analyst Expectations: FOMC 1. IMPROVING DATA POINT TO SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE - - The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week should acknowledge the apparent pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth,...
As expected BOE stood pat on their rate decision reiterating much of which was said last week by Gov M. Carney, the need for more analysis to be done is/ was key - " "Detailed Analysis" of All Policy Options Required" and "Extent Of Additional Stimulus Will Depend on August Forecasts". IMO the notes were very bearish and almost but 100% chance of some sort of...
Futures didn't get any higher after US Close. I am looking for a big short soon. Miight see a few bounces between this latest channel. Rate Hike off the table, UK Out of Europe. Severe capitulation in most FX pairs - Down down 600 points. This could be bad over the next week, maybe even sooner if some big bombshells get dropped.
GNW recovery play, Long at 3.08 as of 6/14/2016, target 6.50 or more by this time next year. GNW was hit by horrible guidance and earnings the previous year and is just starting to recover since the last earnings early May. It has stopped the bleeding in its LTC unit and is poised to make a turnaround. Rate hikes should help GNW as well. 82% of stock float is held...
There is no chance that we will test the historical lows BEFORE the Brexit arrives. There will be some huge swings, most of them going negative, however right here and now today at least for the next 2-4 hours we can "bounce" that Cable back up the levels to 1.42800. Come and check out www.STBinary.com if you would like to take this trade on with some predefined...
Continuing from the previous analysis, we have seen a pullback for support right on the major rising lower trendline @ ~1200. From there, a rapid inversion of the expectations for a fed rate hike have caused the dollar to fall and have risen the precious metal. There is no guarantee that this will keep going as full scale risk aversion hasn't yet kicked in....