JamesHelliwell
Long

Financials will benefit if the reflation theme continues

INDEX:BKX   KBW Bank Index
Related to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World".

This trade relates to a steepening of the US yield curve as rates adjust upwards through either rising inflation or a pickup in US growth (or both) having been driven to a record low in June.


What is interesting to note from a technical perspective is that the BKX             index traded within 1% of the 2007 - 2009 61.8% retracement level last July, before bottoming at the 38.2% retracement level in February this year. Since then, yields have continued to fall (grey), but the relative performance of banks versus the S&P 500             (blue) has held firmer and failed to make new lows.

Assuming the reflation theme transpires, banks represent a compelling value play and remain an uncrowded US equity play. Now trading below the $70 level, technically the banks are in the lower half of the last 12 month's trading range and provide a decent payoff in the run up to $80 (61.8% level) with a stop-on-close (weekly) below $57 (38.2%).

For further insight and discussion please contact me via Tradingview or LinkedIn, on Twitter @James_LVDTA, and visit www.lexvandam.com to become a member of our Trading Club.
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