Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, H1 and weekly NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU...
Short NZDUSD is in my top 2 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. NZD is considered the riskiest G10 currency cross, so NZD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit occurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for NZD due...
• The NZD took centre stage on Thursday, surging to a one-year high after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged, surprising some investors who had been betting on a rate cut. The RBNZ decision was in line with our expectations. • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated it could cut rates again due to low inflation. However, soaring home...
The RBNZ did not cut rates yesterday and did not jawbone the Kiwi's exchange rate. The resistance at 0.70 has now been breached convincingly and any dips to 0.70 could remain a buy, if validated by price. To the upside next level of interest is 0.72, July 10, 2015 high. But looking the Stochastics here, there is a strong hidden bearish divergence which signals to...
$NZDUSD broke above 0.7000. Investors are awaiting today’s decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (21:00 GMT) and we think the outcome will be a very close call. We raised the target on our short-term NZDUSD long to 0.7085, but we also locked in profit at 0.6910. We keep our bullish view on the NZDUSD in the long term. The target in the investment part of...
$NZDUSD exploded higher as the rest of the Majors due to the Dollar's weakness last Friday. Now it is reaching an interesting resistance zone - One that has generated nice bearish moves in recent weeks. Broken uptrend line - Now should act as resistance Psychological level and daily structure zone PRZ of Harmonic patterns. Interesting potential Sell Zone...
The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the second one, is alligned...
The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the first one, is alligned...
I had shared the entry in my monthly short publication (see related ideas) but today I had more clear confirmation that oil is topping against monthly resistance, so we can go long NZDCAD with stops below 0.8591. We can exit when NZDUSD catches up with CADUSD in the percentage scale chart to the left. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition,...
In this chart I break down the price action in these 3 pairs. USDCNH is in a strong 2 day chart downtrend, and about to breach a key level on chart. Once below we can see it trade significantly lower, or even go back to the start of the recent massive PBOC devaluation rally start. AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not...
This chart is significantly interesting for a variety of reasons. On a technical and fundamental basis I think we can expect NZDCAD to sell off in the intermediate to long term, and right here we have the perfect excuse to join in on this action as a position trade. The entry is a discretionary entry, below the previous monthly close, in case next month, we stay...
It looks like NZDUSD-1.49% will resume the bearish trend right away. The confirmation for this setup would be to see a sharp decline, reaching 0,60135 before March 2nd ideally. We could preemtively enter shorts at market and use a stop at 0.68286 initially, and add to the trade as it progresses. The potential decline ahead is rather large, and when we apply an...
The weekly chart shows a very interesting inverted head & shoulders pattern following a significant AUD decline against the NZD after breaking, but failing to hold below the December 2005 lows. With the renewed dovish tone of the RBNZ after disappointing dairy prices, and even more disappointing consumer price figures, this looks to be a good opportunity for...
Everything is said in the other trading idea. Set back and relax now
Fundamentally we have the Reserve Bank of Australia with a neutral stance and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a neutral stance after the latest rate cut. In fact the NZ CPI Figures are scheduled for this week before we head into the showdown of the RBNZ in the last week of January. I am expecting a drop in NZ CPI Figures of round about -0.5%, while the newest...
The GBPNZD pair has been in a strong uptrend, and after topping in August 24th, when the stock market bottomed after flash crashing, endured a lengthy correction. The time for this correction now matches the time the advance took to form, and we're close to a perfect 0.618 retracement of it, which nicely lines up with many time at mode elements suggesting a long...
Talking Points: NZDUSD Technical Strategy: Temporary Bullish Elliottwave Count: Wave C is still due We were tracking to see correction complete on or above .7200 area before downtrend. But this might not be a straight line. This can be played with two scenario. Scenario 1: where we might see upside on wave (c) and can be target on area zone of 7060,...
The kiwi had a solid move against the dollar on Friday, gaining 1.14 percent. The move came as commodities rebounded, thus pushing up their respected commodity FX. This was a response to the weaker dollar, but commodities saw their sixth week of capital inflows as traders deem a more risk-on approach in the medium-term. The move into commodities has been the...