The Nasdaq 100 index ( US 100 ) has moved in the opposite direction of US real yields ( DFII10 ), which are the difference between nominal Treasury yields and market-based inflation expectations (also known as Breakeven yields). Real yields serve as a measure of the Fed's rate tightening aggressiveness.
The 30-day correlation between Nasdaq 100 and US real yields...
Since we last covered gold , most of our views have played out, as real yields rose and dollar strengthened significantly.
As central banks remain committed to fighting the greatest inflation seen in decades, we see continued headwind for the yellow metal. Going back to our real-yield and dollar analysis framework, we see 2 key points.
Firstly, real...
Real interest rates will probably start to fall soon because of stagflation.
Real interest rates can be measured by subtracting inflation expectations FRED:T10YIE from US treasury yields FRED:DGS10 .
Treasury yields will likely fall along with unemployment as measured by initial claims FRED:ICSA .
Initials claims has started to slowly rise and when it...
Many people consider gold as an inflation hedge, but the truth is that Gold in the present day is more of hedge against policy errors or catastrophic scenarios in broadly. It is more like insurance which could also appreciate in a scenario where real rates are falling. In case for whatever reason the financial system breaks, then gold is probably one of the best...
When treasury yields break out of a downtrend
Markets move
If it's a real breakout i would expect volatility in bonds and stonks
GRI 2022
NOT TARDING ADVICE
Hello traders!
I expect more upside for the dollar both technically and fundamentally.
Fundamental Bias:
Weak Bullish
Primary Driver:
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED
Rationale:
More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their...
