Browse
Time

risk-off

Trending
Today
Trending
Most Discussed
Most Viewed
Most Agreed
All Ideas
Today
This Week
This Month
All Time
KlendathuCap KlendathuCap PRO SPX, W, Short ,
SPX: Transitioning to Risk-OFF Inflationary Environment
111 0 5
SPX, W Short
Transitioning to Risk-OFF Inflationary Environment

We are about to transition from a risk-ON inflationary environment to a risk-OFF inflationary environment. That means bond yields might fall even though inflation is rising. The US has been a huge beneficiary of the risk-ON move and as a result should see outflows. That means lower equities, and a weaker dollar. Given a falling dollar, rising inflation, and ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION
309 1 10
USDJPY, D Long
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION

LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL
402 5 10
XAUUSD, D Long
LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL

Long XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: LONG GOLD XAUUSD: RISK-OFF ASSETS TRADING CHEAP ON US STOCK DIP
680 3 19
XAUUSD, D Long
LONG GOLD XAUUSD: RISK-OFF ASSETS TRADING CHEAP ON US STOCK DIP

Gold Positioning - Buy @ Market; 1350TP1 1370TP2 - 1 lot (small) and add double every daily close lower - 1lot, 2lots tomorrow, 4lots the next day: 1. Risk sentiment looks to be turning south, particularly in US equities which have seen monthly lows which is consistent with the broad equity valuation correction lower that i have been expecting for the past few ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short ,
GBPJPY: SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM
388 4 15
GBPJPY, D Short
SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM

GBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the past 2wks accumulating in spot as economic ...

DXY: SELL GBPUSD & USDJPY: FED CHAIR YELLEN JACKSON HOLE HIGHLIGHTS
476 0 14
DXY, D
SELL GBPUSD & USDJPY: FED CHAIR YELLEN JACKSON HOLE HIGHLIGHTS

Yellen as interpreted by the market was bullish, though price action immediately following the JH Speech Highlights was anything but this clear cut and imo said alot more about what was actually said i.e. there is still uncertainty/ no clear commitment, as DXY moved higher immediately after before aggressively selling off for the next 20-30minutes, before then ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SHORT SPX: THE GRAPH SAYS IT ALL - 2145 IS RISK-FREE SELLING?
1016 17 24
SPX500, 60 Short
SHORT SPX: THE GRAPH SAYS IT ALL - 2145 IS RISK-FREE SELLING?

SPX 1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks. 2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin from ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: SPX/ EQUITY BULL RUN: RISK-OFF SHIFT 10% LOWER ANY SECOND NOW
338 2 11
SPX, D Short
SPX/ EQUITY BULL RUN: RISK-OFF SHIFT 10% LOWER ANY SECOND NOW

SPX Bull run 1. Post Brexit US equities have been in an easing induced rally, with the Fed delaying hikes, BOE easing and RBNZ/ RBA also easing - this encouraged US risk markets to set new highs - with 7 of the last 9 weeks strong closes higher. The Bull run over? 1. The last 2wks have closed flat but hhave remained rangey indicating the market has low ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Short ,
USDJPY: USDJPY RTRS FORECAST: BOJ/ MOF - COMMENTS ABE, KURODA, ASAKAWA
163 0 10
USDJPY, D Short
USDJPY RTRS FORECAST: BOJ/ MOF - COMMENTS ABE, KURODA, ASAKAWA

Interestingly the RTRS poll for Aug has a bullish near-term bias for $yen vs in July - my opinion is contrary to their poll as the BOJ and JPY MOF failed to deliver the hype expected/ promised this past week - i think 101/2 is much more likely for the next 3 months vs their 103.8. Comments from PM Abe, MOF and BOJ minutes that we observed in the Asia session were ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMES
597 6 17
SPX, D Short
SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMES

End of the bull run Global Equity Indexes: 1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing. - IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest) stimulus ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short ,
GBPJPY: GBPJPY: BOJ MISS; BOE HIT? MORE SELLING ON THE HORIZON
433 11 12
GBPJPY, D Short
GBPJPY: BOJ MISS; BOE HIT? MORE SELLING ON THE HORIZON

BOJ Miss: 1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase. *See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and price action history/ Yen strength/ Safe havens* BOJ ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D,
GBPJPY: BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPY
347 11 8
GBPJPY, D
BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPY

BOJ Miss - Sell GBPJPY @Market price; 129tp1 - up to 800pips. 1. A BOJ miss can be considered as delivering the median expectations e.g. 10bps cut to the depo (-0.2%), 10bps cut to the LSP (-0.1%), Yen10trn increase in monthly JGB purchases & 50% Increase in Annual ETF purchases e.g. 3.3trn-5trn. Fiscal Stimulus Yen10-15trn. - The package above or less should be ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURCHF, D, Long ,
EURCHF: EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHF
192 0 8
EURCHF, D Long
EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHF

SNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - €˜Big Concern€™ Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit) - Low bond yields not ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading XAUJPY, D, Long ,
XAUJPY: USDJPY V GOLD: BEST VALUE - RISK-ON SELL JPY; RISK-OFF BUY GOLD
354 5 14
XAUJPY, D Long
USDJPY V GOLD: BEST VALUE - RISK-ON SELL JPY; RISK-OFF BUY GOLD

Why Gold is lagging Safe have losses & Yen is outperforming 1. When looking at Gold vs Yen or XAUJPY it becomes apparent why Gold is lagging the broad safe haven losses that we have seen during this risk-recovery rally - investors are buying gold over Yen - so gold appears to be their preferred safe have asset to hold in a risk-on rally - likely a function of ...

SPX: USDJPY/ SPX: NET RISK APPETITE - THE REVERSAL OR INTERDAY TREND?
508 2 14
SPX, D
USDJPY/ SPX: NET RISK APPETITE - THE REVERSAL OR INTERDAY TREND?

- As many of you know ive been tracking/ am keen on this whole macro "net risk sentiment" theme to gauge what direction markets are heading in for the day/ week/ several weeks. - We started today as planned, with both safe havens and risk asset relatively flat, before risk-on sentiment dominated early trading with yen breaking out the 107 level and equity indexes ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: SHORT EURUSD: ECB POLICY DECISION & DRAGHI SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
382 4 15
EURUSD, D Short
SHORT EURUSD: ECB POLICY DECISION & DRAGHI SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

IMO Draghi was dovish on the margin as expected - once again reiterating the ECB commitment to targets with " If Warranted, Will Act By Using All Available Instruments". Further, he was very pessimistic on many fronts, especially the ECBs key target inflation saying "Inflation Rates Likely to Remain Very Low In Next Few Months" and " Risks to Growth Outlook Remain ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: SHORT GBPUSD: CENTRAL BANK EXPECTATIONS - BOE/ ECB/ BOJ & FOMC
417 3 12
GBPUSD, D Short
SHORT GBPUSD: CENTRAL BANK EXPECTATIONS - BOE/ ECB/ BOJ & FOMC

Reuters Analyst Expectations: FOMC 1. IMPROVING DATA POINT TO SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE - - The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week should acknowledge the apparent pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth, ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, W, Short ,
DXY: EOW SUMMARY: RISK THE OVERALL WINNER - US30 & SPX @ 2% NEW HIGHS
528 2 13
DXY, W Short
EOW SUMMARY: RISK THE OVERALL WINNER - US30 & SPX @ 2% NEW HIGHS

End of Week Summary: 1. On the week we saw risk outperform safe havens for the first time since the brexit vote and the SPX and DJ30 set new all time highs by 2% and 1.2% respectively - somewhat encouraging given this was the longest period post-crisis that equity indexes have had since new highs, with a total time of apprx 1 year. 2. Given the articles ...

12Show More Ideas
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out