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Relative Strength continues in $TTDThis is a great example of a favorite chart construct of mine. Regardless of the ticker (although I do favor $TTD) I find this chart construction to be very beneficial to keeping things simple, effective and efficient. The following are key takeaways... Top third - Current price, line chart - looking for absolute support/resistance, uptrending/downtrending specifics. --->>> K.I.S.S. mentality here. Middle third - Price of underlying vs. $SPXL (in this case) - Relative strength of the underlying security vs. $SPXL gives a great shot of whether or not I even need to be considering a specific holding over $SPXL. I also show the 63 day SMA on this ratio chart. Bottom third - RSI of the RS chart (middle third) - the goal here is to look for trending momentum either up or down as well as spotting critical divergences. I find divergences of this magnitude to be more reliable (tradeable) than your average price of underlying divergence. Shown is an example with $TTD.. @dgorghuber (TV) @Futures_Runner (Twitter)
NASDAQ:TTDLong
by dgorghuber
More correction is coming..!After a +12% increase in 1 month, now correction is more likely! Reversal Patterns in the daily chart: 1- Spinning Top 2- Doji after the Spinning Top 3- Bearish Engulfing after the Doji 4- Increased bet against NASDAQ (increased volume of SQQQ) Fortunately, I was ready for this! I closed all positions in the past few days and yesterday open reversed ETF position! est, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Risk managementI saw a lot of traders they bet for a bull run, without checking his/her risk/reward ratio. Many unexperienced traders are beting for new ATH at a stock, which shows sometimes a really small risk/reward ratio like 3:1. So they risking 3 times of your investment as they could probably win. That´s why I wanted to write this small explanation about risk/reward ratio. What is it ? Well, you take each trade the risk to loss money, that´s why it is mandatory to handle each trade with a good risk/reward distribution. Your distribution should be minimum a 1:2 ratio. Successful day traders are generally aware of both the potential risk and potential reward before entering a trade. The goal of a day trader is to place trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. These trades would be considered to have a good risk/reward ratio. A risk/reward ratio is simply the amount of money you plan to risk compared to the amount of money you plan believe you can gain. For example, if you think a potential trade may result in either a $400 profit or $100 loss, the trade would have a risk/reward ratio of 1:4, making it a favorable setup. Contrarily, if you risk $100 to make $100, the trade has a risk/reward ratio of 1:1, giving you the same type of unfavorable odds that you can find in a casino. With regards to the long-term profitability formula above, finding trades with high risk/reward ratios (1:2 or higher), will help you maintain higher average profits and lower average losses, making your trading strategy more sustainable. Another important topic is "Cutting losses", related to our risk/reward ratio A stop-loss is a pre-planned exit order for a losing trade. These can be executed manually or automatically on your broker platform. The purpose is to cut losses before they grow too large. Stopping out of a losing trade can be one of the hardest things for day traders to do consistently. However, failing to take stops can result in margin calls, unnecessarily large losses, and ultimately account blowouts.
by TradeandGrow
Sell in May? A brief study on SEASONALITY (and stock picks)I am sure many have heard the saying “Sell in May and go away” in recent weeks. There is certainly a lot of evidence that May and the months that follow it do not have great track record of performance-- www.isabelnet.com www.isabelnet.com But does it mean BEAR MARKET? And are there any Seasonal Plays we could take advantage of? I think so. Some Sectors & Industries appear to generally do well (Gaming, Healthcare, IT/software) and others do poorly (Banking, Gold & Steel, Oil & Gas). Criteria Scanned Market Chameleon for Market Caps >$1 billion, Common stock types, with 7+ years of observations having good statistical success in May (I made a quick indicator in Pine to highlight and help visualize the returns of a particular month over a span of time. It’s data may not line up with Market Chameleon’s Seasonality Screener results for a # of reasons, so I am giving them the final word and trusting their data over my script) Market References Market Indices ($SPY, $QQQ, $DIA, $IWM) $VIX -- The BEST Quadruplets of May -- Electronic Gaming & Multimedia ($EA, $TTWO, $ATVI, $ZNGA) Good Sharpe ratios (0.92, 0.73, 0.49, 0.48) Good Average and Median returns (median: 11.0%, 12.0%, 6.1%, 11.1%) High % of Positive Occurrences (78%, 90%, 70%, 78%) Aerospace & Defense ($HEI, $KTOS, $TDG, $WWD) Good Sharpe ratios (0.98, 0.61, 0.56, 0.39) Modest Average and Median returns (median: 4.6%, 13.0%, 5.2%, 2.9%) High % of Positive Occurrences (89%, 70%, 60%, 70%) Note: $HEI.A is actually technically a better performer than $HEI Biotech ($REGN, $NBIX, $SRPT, $ALNY) Overall Industry is strong in May Great median and average returns Note: This was a tough field as there are lots of good choices and ultimately comes down to the size of the standard deviation Diagnostics & Research ($DGX, $ICLR, $ILMN, $EXAS) Great Sharpe ratios (1.22, 1.19, 0.83, 0.72) Great win rate Low drawdowns Honorable Mention: $CDNA scores great as well but does not have a ton of observations Healthcare Plans ($UNH, $MOH, $CNC, $HUM) Steady Eddy – low Standard Deviations, low drawdowns Returns are nothing to write home about Internet Content ($ZG, $IAC, $GOOGL, $NTES) Pretty middle of the pack against other quads: good returns by median and average, good Sharpes, good % of positive returns Packaged Goods ($STKL, $HAIN, $DAR, $BGS) High win rate- 80%, 67%, 70%, 70% Relatively speaking, drawdowns are not that bad to the Standard Deviation Honorable Mention: $FRPT is a solid performer but not enough observations to be part of this group Restaurants ($SHAK, $JACK, $TXRH, $CBRL) Very high win rates- 100%, 90%, 80%, 70% Modest returns, small draws Chart is condensed because $SHAK hasn’t been listed for a long time (though there’s enough observations and its worth including into group) but here’s the chart w/o $SHAK-- Software Applications ($BMO, $WBK, $CS, $BBVA) Incredible win rates- 100%, 88%, 75%, 88% Worst returns/draws are TINY- 0.0%, -4.1%, -2.8%, -2.9% Great Sharpe ratios Not a ton of observations, smaller sample size Software Infrastructure ($SPSC, $FIVN, $EVTC, $NEWR) Great Sharpe ratios Good Best returns vs Worst draws Specialty Business Services ($CTAS, $UNF, $CPRT, $GPN) Very high % of wins Good Sharpe Ratios Small Standard Deviations -- The WORST Quadruplets of May -- Banks, Diversified ($BMO, $WBK, $CS, $BBVA) High loss rates- 80%, 90%, 70%, 80% The worst losses are, on average, about 3.2x greater than the best gains High negative Sharpe ratios Banks, Regional ($BBD, $ITUB, $BSBR, $FFBC Great loss rates; average works out to a loss every May The BEST gains are very small- +4.9%, +2.9%, +1.7%, +1.6% compared to the WORST draws- -23.0%, -20.5%, -17.4%, -13.6% High negative Sharpe ratios Farm & Heavy Construction ($OSK, $CNHI, $NAV, $CAT) Small BEST gains compared to WORST draws- worst draws are about 3.44x greater than best gains Mediocre negative Sharpes, modest negative averages/medians Gold ($HMY, $GOLD, $NG, $BTG) Industry as a whole seems seasonally depressed in May High negative Sharpe ratios Note: don’t confuse the TVC ticker for Gold (US$/oz) for the STOCK of the COMPANY $GOLD Oil & Gas, E&P ($CPG, $MUR, $VET, $SM) Oil & Gas industry in general is a terrible May performer Industry in a general downtrend High negative Sharpe ratios Draw % isn’t terrific but the months that this industry gained are not strong Oil & Gas, Equipment & Services ($FTI, $TS, $RES, $CLB) Oil & Gas industry in general is a terrible May performer High frequency of draws High negative Sharpe ratio Chart doesn’t do justice reflecting the WORST draws for May- averaging the worst comes out to -22.5% Oil & Gas, Integrated ($E, $EC, $PBR, $SU) Oil & Gas industry in general is a terrible May performer Very high negative Sharpe ratio Relatively low Standard Deviations Specialty Industrial Materials ($FLS, $GE, $TRS, $XYL) High draw % in May Low Standard Deviations Steel ($MT, $GGB, $SID, $CLF) Very negative Sharpe ratios Big Standard Deviations High % draws in May- 80%, 90%, 70%, 80% Tough field to select 4 from- industry in general does poorly in May Telecom ($TEF, $VEON, $VIV, $TKC) Good negative Sharpe ratios- -0.78, -0.65, -0.62, -0.58 Modest Standard Deviations High % draws in May- 80%, 89%, 70%, 80% Industry seems in a general long-term decline Utilities - Diversified ($CIG, $OTTR, $AES, $ELP) Good % draws in May- 78%, 70%, 70%, 70% Despite general up-trend in Industry, does seem to do poorly in the month of May
AMEX:SPY
by chrism665
4
BTCDOWN/USDT : BTC's possible drop | read the caption BINANCE:BTCDOWNUSDT Hello everyone 😃 BTCDOWN is now currently moving into a descending triangle. Based on 5th rule attempt breakout, BTCDOWN has been rejected for 4 times now. It means that next attempt is really important and it could cause a breakout on triangle's higher line. I'm predicting that there will be another leg up for BTC and we may see the dip on next weekend ! ( sooner or later ) Now there are 3 reasons except BTCDOWN chart that makes BTC more bearish on my side ! 1️⃣ Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges 2️⃣ Exchange BTC Futures Open Interest 3️⃣ BTC Long-Short Ratio 1️⃣ Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges BTC's balances on exchanges is increasing day by day, And so; We had +60,627 BTC's balances on exchanges in last 7 days and +7,486 BTC's in last 24Hrs. As I mentioned before on my last posts about BTC; Market maker will wait for a valuable supply to cause a drop on BTC. And according to BTC's historical drops DATA; All drops happened after 7 days (averaged) of huge inflows on exchanges. So we have the Inflow in past days but there is a problem on Futures open interest, According to the chart of Exchange BTC Futures Open Interest; Open interests has decreased about 13% and this makes market makers to wait for a better supply zone. 2️⃣ Exchange BTC Futures Open Interest BTC's open interest has been dropped for 13% in past 6 days, This is happened when we have more inflows in exchanges, Means that low volume traders are waiting for a confirmation on chart. However most of the price level drop is caused by BTC's recent dive ! But there is still a space that need to fill by weak hands. According to this chart, On last 2 days we saw another minor dive on BTC's chart, But interest has been increased for 3% ! It mentions that many of people are considering current drop as a last dive on BTC. This data has been confirmed by BTC's Long-Short Ratio chart ( 0.5% recovery on Longs in past 3 days ). 📌 Remember that many of short positions are created by Asset managers. 3️⃣ BTC Long-Short Ratio According to today's LONG/SHORT Ratio chart, positions are neutral bullish but the size of positions is neutral bearish ! It means that low volume traders believed that BTC won't go lower ( at-least for now ) but Institutional considered that BTC have more space to drop before any 2nd leg up. Now that's my thought, Market makers will let the market to have a correction and reach above 52K again; After that we might see more winning on position size and it would flip into a neutral bullish. Actually I'm predicting a strategy by the last repetition on May .04... We had current rates on May .04; Also we have similar inflows to exchanges ! Market makers will make this opportunity for positions size to grow again, Then after a fake out on MA 100 it will drop more... 🔰 Based on given data, This is the most possible direction for BTC : 📌 Key words : - Whales are depositing their assets into exchanges - Asset managers are more bearish than bullish - Positions are neutral bullish but positions size is neutral bearish - BTCDOWN had 4 rejected attempts to break descending triangle's higher line; So based on 5th rule breakout, We may see the breakout on next attempt 🔴 Remember that, All of the given information are provided by @Helical_Trades and we are still predicting on our last idea about BTC : 📌 Also there is a high chance for bears to lead the pair to lower levels from current rate if any daily candle closed below 46K. Hope you enjoyed our analysis about Sentiment view on BTCDOWN's possible directions🙌 You can support us with your likes. Also you can share your opinion with us in comments 😉🙋🏼‍♂️ Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision. Have a good day! @Helical_Trades
BLong
by Helical_Trades
43
LTC/BTC POTENTIAL PARABOLIC OUTCOME (DOGE/BTC COMPARISON)The LTC/BTC ratio has the potential to move in a similar crazy parabolic fashion as has been seen for DOGE/BTC. Its non-serious nature and reputation as a meme within the crypto community together with a social network effect from the likes of popular figures in the tech sector have made Dogecoin a popular choice among new traders using brokers such as Robinhood. Fundamentally, Dogecoin and Litecoin make use of the same Scrypt POW mining algorithm. Litecoin and Dogecoin can be merge mined and nearly 90% of Dogecoin’s total hash rate comes from large Litecoin mining pools, with its blockchain processing around 30,000 transactions per day. If LTC/BTC follows the same path as DOGE/BTC then the ratio could reach extremely high numbers within the range of 0.05 - 0.2 LTC/BTC. This of course does not mean that this will happen but it is interesting to see the striking resemblance between the two ratio chart patterns. Fundamentals: Dogecoin and Litecoin are merge mined Both use the Scrypt POW mining algorithm LTC is traded on Robinhood the broker popular in the US with beginners and other Reddit netizens and BTC still has room to grow in the current macrocycle and the entire crypto market cap has room to grow during the altcoin bull run as new money flows into the market. Technicals: LTC has a similar chart pattern compared to DOGE and therefore has a chance to play out the DOGE fractal pattern Monthly MACD histogram is about to flip green Bullish Divergence on weekly MACD Stochastic RSI on the monthly is oversold Bollinger Bands on the monthly are about to expand indicating an increase in price volatility Monthly EMAs on the weekly are poised to cross (20 weekly EMA about to cross 50 EMA) Monthly PSAR has flipped bullish TL;DR Litecoin go up, much wow!
Long
by lightknight
3
PSLV vs SLV Volume ratio chartThis chart shows the recent trend of increasing interest in the silver ETF PSLV (managed by Sprott Inc) vs. SLV (managed by Blackrock with JPMorgan as the custodian). Volume ratio is normalized by ounces per share, so it is the ratio of silver traded for each ETF PSLV is the preferred fund for the Reddit group wallstreetsilver and most people in #silversqueeze fintwit/reddit has recently exploded with a lot of mistrust of JPM/SLV Chart is a good indicator of the strength of the #silversqueeze and /r/wallstreetsilver movement
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by forsytjr
ETH probably will outperform BTC like 2017This is a monthly ETH to BTC ratio chart. It shows how ETH outperformed BTC in the last bull cycle and underperforms BTC in the last bear cycle. The ETH:BTC and BTC:ETH ratios are as follows: Month/Yr ETH:BTC BTC:ETH Nov 2015 0.00137 730 Mar 2016 0.0372 27 Dec 2016 0.007302 137 Jun 2017 0.1530 6.5 Sep 2019 0.01615 62 Sep 2020 0.04055 25 Dec 2020 0.002272 44 Jan 16, 2021 0.03315 30 The ETH:BTC ratio went generally up in the 2015-17 bull cycle. A well place ETH buy in Dec 2016 would have outperformed BTC by 20 to 1 in six months by June 2017. Could this happen again and ETH outperform BTC the next few months? The Elliot Wave has bottomed and recently moved up from .002272 last month to .03315 now. I believe the ETH:BTC ratio could rise again to 0.1530 like Jun 2017 later this year. If so, then ETH would outperform BTC 4.6 to 1. Some are expecting $200,000 for the BTC price later this year. A ETH:BTC ratio of 6.5 would yield a $30000+ ETH price. Similarly, a $300,000 BTC price would yield a $46,000 ETH price.
Long
by shubbs
ETHBTCRatio trading is asking for trouble. But will consider flipping some corn into this if 200d MA hits. The oscillators look fine for further bullish signals and looking good now tbh, just a watch and wait here... and good DCA flip time i think in coming days weeks potentially. Stop loss is there because its where previous support is and below 618 and break that, go back in at 786/886 area... and If ratio suffers from a BTC tank, then stop loss is spot on from a $ value perspective. But if BTC rallys, then $ wise safe bet to stop loss into BTC and await the slingshot with Eth 2 coming etc. Elephant in the room is eths 200 Weekly MA, oddly above the 200D and therefore may be painting their own support and resistance. Thats a basic, nice and simple target area. Lets hope it doesnt hit if eth hits 270 again. Never confident in ratio charts, but TA looks like its worth keeping an eye on this one as its still higher lows, higher high territory and thus 200DMA is historically the jesus of flip areas.
by Swiller
1
Potential Increase In Infrastructure and Housing. Monitor CementThis is a Ratio Chart between the Cement Sector Index (consist of SMGR and INTP) and Composite. The Chart has been in Downtrend since 2013 so that means Cement Stocks are Underperforming Composite. But this trend might be over soon since the Chart (or Ratio Chart) is moving Sideways since 2017. The sideways move might end the Downtrend (that happened since 2013) so there is a possibility that Cement Stocks will Outperform Composite - if the Ratio Chart starts to move Upward. I'm monitoring the Cement Sector because there is a possibility that the Housing Sector (and Infrastructure Sector) will increase in 2021. That will increase the demand for cement.
IDX:SMGR
by mmdcharts
Hi Ho Silver, we go like this till we go up!As you can see on the tremendous chart, silver will go and do things before it goes on a tremendous rocket ride. Some little gap resitances and supports being seen on the different time frames. Overall bigger picture is a symmetrical triangle which should resolve bullishly based on the SLV/GLD ratio chart. In the shorter term we may follow roughly follow the yellow line into some of the gap candle resistances on different time frames. Upper spot which the yellow path I've drawn hits comes into a moving average at the same time, then back down into our triangle before we resolve to a grind upwards out of September before final rocket up. I haven't posted the SLV/GLD ratio, but I guess I should to show that the timeframes are in alignment for the bull run.
AMEX:SLV
by TraderCaps
[VVIX/SPX] Volatility Ratio Encore: New Perspectives = More $$$The volatility landscape is getting clearer with each passing day. It seems my first Volatility Ratio chart of VIX/SPX broke some interesting ground. Managed to pull my first Editor's Pick. In order to further refine our Volatility Trading Strategy here we must expand and find other major S/R from as many angels as we can. VVIX is the next logical choice. Whenever the ratio breaks under the major support the price tends to swing down and back up, this recent swing low was due to breaking the 7Y green support line Aug 21st. It dropped all the way down to the next green support and bounced back up to touch the 1Y blue uptrend S/R and fell down to the 8Y red downtrend S/R. These lines were mapped at the 1W scale. We are getting wedged down under the blue, green and yellow into red. This also aligns with a early Sept volatility movement. Most likely that will be a sustained break above green that triggers a spike up to the next yellow downtrend and possibly up the blue uptrend. OG Volatility Ratio:
CBOE:VVIXLong
by ProfitHarvest