I'm currently long $ETHUSD, and waiting to exit in profit, and I think at one point during July we may get a retracement in crypto markets accross the board...I also think $ETHUSD can confirm a monthly uptrend during July, so I will carefully watch how chart patterns and sentiment evolve over time from here onwards. We need to be aware of this trend signal in the monthly ratio chart as well...positioning of crypto portfolios might be better off if there is exposure to $BTCUSD, and not only alts (even though $ETHUSD will likely perform well).
This chart shows the doomsday scenario for altcoin holders, where NO single altcoin beats $BTCUSD ever again...IF this trend signal confirms, odds of that happening will be 70%, for as long as price doesn't go back up, and above the levels specified on chart. USD wise we can make profits in alts, specially in solid ones like $ETHUSD, but they might end up falling short compared to $Bitcoin. Since most people have been stuck on long alt positions since 2017 (where altcoins surged like never before), this chart signal actually working is a very real contrarian scenario.
Keep this in mind...
Best of luck,
$ETHUSD is a good risk reward long trade here, but, long term signal hasn't yet kicked in, and $ETHXBT is trending down. $BTCUSD has max 13.6:1 risk reward, vs 9.5:1 for $ETHUSD, in the absolutely best case scenario which is lower probability than $BTCUSD's signal. I wouldn't reccomend to buy $ETH or any other coin, $BTCUSD has the highest odds of success in crypto currently. Still, you could leverage long here, using $BTC as collateral, if you were so inclined, but definitely don't try to fade the $ETHBTC trend. It will keep going lower and lower over time.
In 2012, there's not so much altcoins like 2016 or 2019, very small altcoin market with litecoin's creation.
During 2012~2013, there had been bitcoin's super bull market and so litecoin did, during which litecoin's price surged from $0.002~$40.
So, maybe not soon, but IMHO the era "where altcoins surged like never before" will be come again sometime.
Still you make an interesting point, it's always good to take the doomsday scenario into account as well.
Actually things haven't been good since May 2019 for coin market whereas bitcoin remained strong.
IMO ALTBTC will go down more and more. Especially ETHBTC will go down to around 0.012, where would be one of the best chances to re-estatimate ethereum price to bitcoin.