IvanLabrie
Short

ETHXBT: Scariest chart ever...

KRAKEN:ETHXBT   ETH / XBT
I set an alert here to monitor this chart, if $ETHBTC were to fall below 0.02405, things could turn from bad to worse in the ratio chart.
I'm currently long $ETHUSD, and waiting to exit in profit, and I think at one point during July we may get a retracement in crypto markets accross the board...I also think $ETHUSD can confirm a monthly uptrend during July, so I will carefully watch how chart patterns and sentiment evolve over time from here onwards. We need to be aware of this trend signal in the monthly ratio chart as well...positioning of crypto portfolios might be better off if there is exposure to $BTCUSD, and not only alts (even though $ETHUSD will likely perform well).

This chart shows the doomsday scenario for altcoin holders, where NO single altcoin beats $BTCUSD ever again...IF this trend signal confirms, odds of that happening will be 70%, for as long as price doesn't go back up, and above the levels specified on chart. USD wise we can make profits in alts, specially in solid ones like $ETHUSD, but they might end up falling short compared to $Bitcoin. Since most people have been stuck on long alt positions since 2017 (where altcoins surged like never before), this chart signal actually working is a very real contrarian scenario.

Keep this in mind...
Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
Trade active:

It's on!
Comment: Price is moving lower and lower over time. Very clear down trend.
Comment:

$ETHUSD is a good risk reward long trade here, but, long term signal hasn't yet kicked in, and $ETHXBT is trending down. $BTCUSD has max 13.6:1 risk reward, vs 9.5:1 for $ETHUSD, in the absolutely best case scenario which is lower probability than $BTCUSD's signal. I wouldn't reccomend to buy $ETH or any other coin, $BTCUSD has the highest odds of success in crypto currently. Still, you could leverage long here, using $BTC as collateral, if you were so inclined, but definitely don't try to fade the $ETHBTC trend. It will keep going lower and lower over time.
Looks like the alts are doomed with the confirmation of monthly end breaking further down. very unfortunate for the alt / bitcoin holders
+2 Reply
Davj79 Bella88
@Bella88, ETH doesn not equal alts. That era is finished. ETH is just a big loot pinata until they roll out the upgrades.
Reply
Yes, but when it comes to "where altcoins surged like never before", I just want to say that there had been another super altcoin bull market.
In 2012, there's not so much altcoins like 2016 or 2019, very small altcoin market with litecoin's creation.
During 2012~2013, there had been bitcoin's super bull market and so litecoin did, during which litecoin's price surged from $0.002~$40.

So, maybe not soon, but IMHO the era "where altcoins surged like never before" will be come again sometime.
+2 Reply
Exactly !
+1 Reply
I have really hard time picturing why the ALT/BTC cycle wouldn't repeat to an extent. Top alts such as ETH, XMR, XRP & XLM etc. are doing very well as far as the fundamentals go. A lot of shitcoins will die sure, but there have been tons of new, actually original alts released fairly recently that haven't had their pump yet. Also smaller players and ordinary people love alts, which is why they are such great profit making machines for the big players. Why wouldn't the same pattern repeat?

Still you make an interesting point, it's always good to take the doomsday scenario into account as well.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TracksuitTrader
@TracksuitTrader, cause so many people love it since first half of 2017...
Reply
Over 95% are still falling in love with altcoins.

Actually things haven't been good since May 2019 for coin market whereas bitcoin remained strong.

IMO ALTBTC will go down more and more. Especially ETHBTC will go down to around 0.012, where would be one of the best chances to re-estatimate ethereum price to bitcoin.
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie tlzkrh1029
@tlzkrh1029, Yep...alts are rekt.
Reply
tlzkrh1029 IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, Yes, rekt and rekt to death, and then maybe another possible big chances will be come?
Reply
I hope this won't happen really
Reply
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