Seasonality
The alt-token Santa rally is here! - December 2025But it’ll be short lived. Many will mistakingly recognise this as “alt token” season, it’s not. It’ll be a relief rally on steroids for long suffering alt token holders. Use it as your exit from this awful asset class. This idea expires by the end of January 2026 at the latest, unless a development occurs that changes that outlook from the data available today.
The above 3 day chart of Bitcoin dominance forecasts a Death Cross print circa December 15th. Technically speaking, it is the 3rd three day Death cross to print on Bitcoin dominance. The others happened on May 2016:
At the time the OTHERS Total (first 100 alt tokens minus the top 10 generally speaking) rallied from $100m to $66billion over 590 days, when many made fortunes and watched them melt away in 2018. Today XRP has a market capital almost twice the size of the 2017 alt token bubble at $123billion. Aye.
The 2nd three day death cross was in August 2020, Bitcoin dominance rallied almost 30% on the cross and the OTHERS Total rallied 1000% over the following 255 days.
The take away, every 3 day death cross print is followed by a strong alt token performance.
“Wait wait you said until January 2026 and you present evidence for previous death cross resulting in alt token rallies that lasted multiple months, I’m confused!”
Why I know it won’t last long
A few of the long term followers among you may remember this idea “I mminent 2-day death cross - Is Bitcoin about to crash 30-40% ?? ” from 2022. The idea discusses the relevance of the 2 day death cross (not a 3 day as discussed above). That is when:
The 2 day 50 Simple Moving average (blue) crosses down the 2 day 200 SMA (Red) with price action under the 200 SMA.
If you look left you’ll notice every Bitcoin bear market is confirmed with this event. A 2 day death cross is forecast to print around the end of the month. It does not mean price action will drop like a vegan at a BBQ, but rather complain at first before being overcome by the stench of gravity.
Bitcoin 2 day death cross forecast, December 31st, 2026
Will not bore you with past crosses, you can do look them up yourself. What is clear, if not factual, a 2 day death cross is the start of a minimum year long bear market.
Conclusions
So yes, the alt token Santa rally is here, jingling its little bells and waving shiny green candles in your face like some bloke at a Christmas market trying to sell you socks you don’t need.
And like all Christmas magic, it’ll vanish the moment the lights go off. Not an “alt-season,” not a new paradigm, not “the big rotation we’ve been waiting for.” It’s one last sugar rush before the dentist arrives.
The real Grinch is waiting at the end of the month: the 2-day Bitcoin death cross, the one that actually matters. The one that says, “Right, fun’s over, pack it up, winter’s here.”
If you’re still clinging to low-cap jungle rubbish by February, that’s no longer optimism, that’s performance art. Use the rally. Exit the nonsense. Save yourself before the lights go out and the floor collapses faster than a crypto influencer’s moral compass.
Ww
Disclaimer
==========================================
This is not financial advice, obviously. If you read this and think, “Right, I’m putting the house, the kids, and the dog into ShibaBonk Inu because Santa said alt season!” that’s on you, mate.
If the market pumps, you’ll claim you’re a genius.
If it dumps, you’ll blame me. Either way, I’ll still sleep like a baby.
Do your own research.
$AVGO [Broadcom Inc.]The compounder NASDAQ:AVGO has declined almsot 20% from ATHs. The stock is trading around $325 as we speak, currently testing the 100 SMA, if it breaks below, a gap could be filled around $310:$300.
Keys:
A disparity between the trailing P/E of 71 and the anticipated forward 24x suggests that the company is expecting a massive earnings boom.
PEG of 0.69 is suggesting an undervalued stock price to its growth.
A fortress balance sheet with a profit margin of 36.20% & gross margin of 64,71% & EPS next y of 38,21%
Stocking up on longs as Christmas cheer kicks inHaving failed to clear resistance layered above 8,726 last week, our ASX 200 contract has retraced back towards support at 8,575 and bounced, generating a setup where traders can look to play what is typically a strong seasonal period for Australian equities without leaving too much risk on the table.
Longs could be set above 8,575 with a stop below, targeting a bullish reversal back towards resistance at 8,726. While the oscillators are providing mildly bearish signals, with RSI (14) pushing lower away from the neutral level and MACD rolling over towards the signal line while remaining in negative territory, the message is overridden given we’re approaching the roll in futures and the likelihood of far lower volumes heading into Christmas.
Essentially, this trade is underpinned by the Santa rally playing out as institutional traders pack up for the year, providing a window for retail to dominate proceedings.
Good luck!
DS
Bitcoin enters weekly Gaussian channel - November 2025And the Bulls have until November 17th to undo that, or else…
An alarm recently triggered, an alarm that had been completely forgotten about. That alarm has a message written to myself:
“Bitcoin price action enters weekly Gaussian channel. Look left - DO NOT IGNORE”
We look left, and pause, “ well isn’t that interesting ”, says the little voice of reason. I tell it to shut up as I convince myself this time is different.
The technicals:
Each candle circled from 2014 through until 2021 is the first candle to enter the weekly Gaussian channel following the market top. Now whether you believe the market top is in or not, that is not relevant. We’re only interested in facts. The facts are:
Price action corrected -60% minimum upon entering the channel AFTER confirmation. Price action has until November 17th to confirm. That would result in a market bottom of $43k to $57k, Saylor’s fund would be wiped out.
Price action would remain in a bear market condition for at least 18 months. Therefore no recovery until mid 2027.
Closer Clarice
What needs to happen to remain in a bull market?
Price action must close above $110k, while technically speaking $105k is outside the channel, that would be a weak close. A weak close as the previous bar engulfs the print.
Conclusions
So here we are again, Bitcoin’s entered the weekly Gaussian channel, that green noodle of doom. Every time it happens, people scream “buy the dip!” as if chanting it makes the red candles go away. Look left, seriously, just look. Every single time price action’s wandered into that channel since 2014, it’s been the start of an 18-month spa retreat for the bears. “This time is different,” they say.
In each cycle Bitcoin entered the Gaussian channel price dropped roughly -60 % and stayed miserable for over a year. And 2025 has been glorious right?, all Bitcoin maxis ever wanted was a fiat replacement. Congratulations, price action is the same as it was this time last year and look set to continue the trend! Why the long faces?! Isn't this what you wanted? Was never about more dollars was it? 1 Bitcoin still = 1 Bitcoin after all.
Now the bulls have got until November 17th to prove this isn’t another replay. If the bulls can’t push price back above $110 k (and hold it), it’s curtains. $43k – $57k becomes the new meditation zone while Saylor and the laser-eye crew quietly delete their tweets.
Ww
Disclaimer
=============================================================
This isn’t financial advice. It’s a bloke on the internet pointing at a rainbow-coloured curve saying “that’s bad.” If you mortgage your house because you think I’ve uncovered the secret code of the Gaussian gods, that’s on you. If it pumps, you’ll call yourself a genius.
If it dumps, you’ll say the whales manipulated it. Either way, I’ll still be here, laughing at the comments section.
So yes, DO NOT IGNORE the channel. But also, don’t sell your kidneys because a stranger on TradingView drew some squiggly lines.
GOLD: With FED officially ending the QT, Further Upside.For TVC:GOLD – Expecting Further Upside
With the FED officially ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) and a high probability of a rate cut in December, combined with expectations of a new FED Chair, the macro environment is supporting GOLD.
Add to this the historical seasonality where gold tends to perform strongly into year-end, and the overall picture remains bullish.
🔹 Lower interest rates = weaker USD and stronger gold
🔹 End of QT = more liquidity flowing back into markets
🔹 Geopolitical uncertainty + risk hedging continues to support safe-haven assets
🔹 Bond yields showing signs of topping, reducing pressure on gold
Based on these factors, we expect GOLD to push up and potentially make new highs.
Always remember WTW 4 Golder Rules:
1) Do not jump in
2) Do not over risk/trade
3) Do not trade without Stop Loss
4) Never ever add to a losing position!
Trade with care
We Trade Waves
WTW Team
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
$NFLX #Netflix Outlook [High Margins, Low Debt, High Growth]NASDAQ:NFLX is attempting to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). The stock has dropped roughly 31% from its highs. In big acquisitions, the stock of the company doing the buying usually drops because investors worry they are overpaying or taking on too much complexity. The fact that a bidding war is starting with Paramount adds uncertainty.
Strengths:
PEG is 1.14
Netflix is a consumer growth stock. Finding a tech giant growing earnings at 25%+ per year (EPS next 5Y is 25.64%) trading at a PEG of 1.1 is rare. The recent price drop has made the valuation very attractive relative to its growth.
Debt/Eq is 0.66
Netflix has very manageable debt. This gives them the power to make bold moves, like trying to buy Warner Bros without risking bankruptcy.
Profit Margin is 24.08
For every dollar of subscription money they take in, they keep 24 cents as pure profit. This is high for a media company that spends billions on content creation. It shows their business model has fully matured.
Weaknesses
If Netflix wins the war for WBD, they have to integrate a massive, legacy media company. This is messy, expensive, and dilutes existing shareholders. If they lose the war to Paramount, the stock might bounce back, but they lose a strategic asset. Uncertainty kills stock prices!
IMO, Netflix's problems are strategic which is a merger drama, not structural.
Not an investment advice, DYOR!
#AHMEDMESBAH #Stocks #NFLX #NETFLIX
Why This 2022 Bitcoin Fractal Might Fail The 2022 bear‑market fractal 📉
The fractal taken from the 2022 bear market. Back then Bitcoin built a rising wedge pattern and then dropped about 60% in value from the breakdown.
What “everyone” expects now 😱
Many traders now expect Bitcoin to repeat that same pattern crash.
Social media, bears and even cautious bulls keep pointing to the old wedge and saying “this dump is next.”
Why this time can be different 💡
Markets rarely give the majority the easy trade; when everyone leans to one side, that scenario often gets crowded and fails.
If most traders are positioned for a huge crash, any sustained bid or positive macro surprise can squeeze them and send price higher instead.
My view based on the chart 📊🚀
I consider an alternative path: a choppy but upward trend, driven by forced short covering and new buyers stepping in as the crash fails to appear.
Key takeaway ✅
Yes, the 2022 fractal shows what could happen.
But because almost everyone already sees and trades that same pattern, the higher probability play now is that Bitcoin does not repeat the exact 60% wipeout and instead grinds higher while late bears get trapped.
$POET - LongI am bullish on NASDAQ:POET , long term.
NASDAQ:POET recently caught some media attention due to a significant investment from an institution. The stock saw a large move up (60%-70%) in addition to a few of their largest volume days ever recorded.
Now a month later, the stock has cooled down and is roughly around the price it was sitting at before the news. IMPO I think this is a great semi-long term and long term investment opportunity. Note: The institution that invested the $75 million also has warrants at a $7 strike price.
What does NASDAQ:POET do?
Ask ChatGPT...
Optical engines, for AI/hyperscale data centers. Creating smaller, lower-power, lower-cost links between GPUs/CPUs/server. Less bottlenecks, more bandwidth, cheaper.
$9 PT. I am long past that and plan to hold indefinitely.
Gold Context: Failed Breakdown & Structure ResilienceCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Traders. Update on the opening flows of the week.
Market Context (The Defense): Yesterday, the auction probed slightly below Friday's low, but failed to find acceptance or continuation.
The Reaction: Instead of triggering a broader liquidation break, we saw immediate short covering.
Key Observation: The market barely tested Thursday's low. This inability to extend lower and "repair" the structure indicates a lack of aggressive selling interest.
Structure & Outlook: I do not view this price action as a sign of weakness. On the contrary, the rejection of lower prices suggests responsive buying is present.
The Expectation: We are looking for this initial short covering to transition into New Money (OTF) buying.
The Confirmation: If "New Money" steps in above the current balance, it validates the resilience we saw yesterday and should drive the auction higher.
Plan & Execution:
Bias: Constructive / Looking for upside rotation.
Focus: Monitoring the transition from mechanical short covering to genuine initiative buying.
Talk to you for the next update.
KSE 100, Market Stance - Cautious Optimism with DisciplineMy stance remains very cautious regarding fresh buying. This week is likely to be bullish. My approach is to capitalize on the rally, book profits aggressively, and enjoy the upside while it lasts.
Freeing up at least 50% cash is strongly advised.
Historically, mutual funds tend to sell towards the end of December, and a fake-out rally remains a very real possibility.
A sustainable and stronger rally will only materialize if smart money gets the opportunity to buy at discounted levels, which may happen if the index corrects toward 160K or even 152K.
I sincerely wish to be proven wrong but experience has taught me the hard way.
Hence, the mantra is simple:
NEVER LOSE AGAIN
🔴 Resistance:
R1: 170,000
R2: 171,100
R3: 174,900
🟢 Support:
S1: 166,000
S2: 163,000
S3: 160,000
Rest with Allah Kareem…
Regards,
Arsalan Anwer
Stags
Gold Context: The 4290 Probe & Weekly Balance OutlookFOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1!
Traders. Weekly wrap-up and context outlook for the next auction.
Market Context (The Rejection):
Gold rejected the 4290 level, falling just short of the 4300 psychological magnet.
• Interpretation: While the day ended with a rejection (excess), we must not ignore that the auction did facilitate trade at these levels. This extension above our 3-day balance indicates intent.
• The Profile: The rally displays characteristics of short covering (squeezing weak shorts) rather than aggressive new buying. The rejection simply indicates the price was "too high" for the current timeframe, but the level remains a valid target for a revisit.
Structure & Outlook (Next Week):
We are monitoring the Weekly Balance zone roughly between 4220 – 4260.
• The Bull Case (Acceptance): If we see continued short covering transition into New Money (OTF) buying above this balance, we look for acceptance at these higher prices. This would open the door to trade through 4300.
• The Bear Case (Liquidation): There is a probability of long liquidation if the auction fails to hold the balance, but I am cautious/skeptical of the downside potential right now.
Plan:
Watch for acceptance vs. rejection relative to the 4220–4260 balance. We need "New Money" to sustain the break of 4300.
Talk to you for the next update.
Can WEAV Repeat Its Past Bullish Earnings Performance?WEAV - CURRENT PRICE : 7.41
Historically, WEAV has shown strong rallies following positive earnings announcements, as highlighted by the green circles on the chart. The current price setup shows a similar early rebound pattern, suggesting potential for another upward move if bullish sentiment continues.
Technical Setup:
Price is rebounding from recent lows, forming a potential bottom structure.
Previous two rallies after earnings were followed by strong momentum — the current setup mirrors that historical behavior.
Volume has slightly increased, indicating renewed buying interest.
If price sustains above near-term support, a continuation move could follow.
ENTRY PRICE : 7.20 - 7.41
FIRST TARGET : 8.30
SECOND TARGET : 9.00
SUPPORT : 6.46 (Low of 30 October 2025 candle)
Notes: Investors who wish to review the company’s earnings details may visit its official website.
Eols. Closing the gap.The company recently exceeded revenue estimates for the quarter. Despite market turbulence, the price is holding up well. Short float is 22%. Temporary undervaluation. The current price is far from its 52-week high, which means there is room for recovery.
Analyst consensus and targets. Some recent reviews give a target in the $18 range,
which is significantly higher than the current ~$7. This creates a "vacuum" in price expectations, which provides an opportunity for growth. The company usually shows growth from November to March.






















