TSM over 127.58After a nice climb TSM has pulled back and looks to be breaking from this descending channel. Entry over recent high shown here will confirm a breakout.
Semis
AMD over 88.72Shown here on the weekly view, it made a higher weekly high confirming a weekly breakout. Lots of eyes on this one and large order flow, 6th most bullish by volume on CheddarFlow with 195 orders totaling $25.2m. But as its been faking us out recently, a break over October's high to confirm a monthly breakout is a more conservative entry. Most institutional orders are for 12/18 strikes 85-90, or 12/15/21 strikes 95 and 100.
AMD ST short idea3H hanging man candle.
Trading range.
indicators divergence.
looking into selling call spread, buying $90 leg just in case trading range break so I can close my short leg.
TSMEarnings BMO tomorrow. Could trade down to $86.49 but it'll get bought up. Earnings should be priced in and the stock won't move
Breakdown of Semiconductors Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines.
Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given the overweight bullish positioning and the stretched overbought price.
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They have been buying hand over fist. Given the initial Head and Shoulders bottom from March, the near term target would be the 161.8% target from that structure's extension.
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Buy itAMAT has effectively broken out and re-entered it's upward rising channel.
Current target is ~$100 (a 1.618 fib extension from that last downward correction April2018-Jan2019), but that could take until year end.
Elliott Wave pattern is screaming to me that this is a 5 of a 5, so watch out near that $100 target and get your sell limit orders placed beforehand.
Considering buying some calls for 6 months--a year out
QQQ -Nasdaq Bull Flag forming?After a volatile week, $QQQ has been hit by some short-term selling pressure. This in turn, has made its technical patterns look quite bearish at the moment.
However contrary to this, it may appear that a "Bullish Flag" pattern may be forming. If the price can bounce of the bottom of the channel pattern ("Flag") at $186.31, move higher and breach the top of the Flag at $192.89, we could see prices move higher. If it fails to do so however, we could see more selling.
Watch this space over the next few trading sessions.
Hodor hodor! (hold the...line)Rough day after earnings report.
Strong fundamentals here.
My hypothesis is that, short term, it will run the same luck than the index.
SHORT SMH - SemiConductors are a great short here. Inventories are high for all the companies, this should affect margins. Plus it's hitting its head on resistance right here. Should give some back in a day or two. SMH
AMD Short Preying on Semi WeaknessAMD still propped up by irrational sentiment, but poised to return to Earth this summer and into fall. Target spelled out in the chart.
SMH Bounce Play Into Short$SMH ready to bounce at support before completing the last leg of this particular head and shoulders pattern. Also found RSI support. Still bearish semi's, so will go long now and short at 106.
Beautiful Reversal FormationHead & Shoulders completed with a high volume break through the neckline, and a successful retest.
Large corporate investors are also in on this. Gonna buy the pullback.
Short Term target = .26
Long Term target = 2.00
FINALLY! good signs of a REVERSALHead & Shoulders spotted with larger volume on the neckline breakout AND a correction where we tested the neckline and bounced off of it, showing it as a support now! I'm strengthening my position from .18 to .195
SMH Riding Ascending DTL into 200dmaI'm not trading this, but posting it as something to watch. We have a few weeks/months until other semi's report, so it could easily ride this line into the 200dma, though it will likely see some consolidation as it ascends into future supply zones. Risk/reward not here for me until it shows its hand a little more.
