USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112%
USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4%
data up to 10/2014
THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
Plot the ratio of SPX to SPY and most would expect a fairly constant ratio around 10:1 to pop up. But the chart itself shows the same pattern - a quarterly reset starting at about 10.02 and then ratio decay to about 9.97. Last week we were trading 9.96 on average but at end of day Friday we popped to 10.02, right on time at options expiration..
Keep the ratio...
Changes of FED´s speech in the chart, and as they have influenced the dollar and the stocks markets:
FED dropping patient and replacing it with greater emphasis on meeting to meeting data.
Now considering the overbought level, with the dollar strengthening the United States stock market It ought to reach a tipping point That will lead to a healthy correction,...
The business cycle has become a simple fact of economic life. This is so for two reasons: 1) human psychology and 2) central bank interference in the global economy. The Federal Reserve's and European Central Bank's responses to the 2008 financial crisis created asset bubbles in the West, and failed to resolve the solvency problems of the European Union....
Wall Street has posted the sharpest rally in a month today. Looking at this 6 month chart, large up days following dips in the market, have been the bottom for the most recent 5 market rallies. If the pattern repeats, we could see the SP 500 regain 2100 levels next week.
For my analysis for Tuesday's trading, I am anticipating a move down. The market failed to get back to 2088 yesterday and breathed more life into the sellers to take this lower. I am looking to see this test out the low 2050's. The MACD is in favor of the bears. The stochastic however is approaching oversold. The price pattern isn't too bad as it stands now. The...
For my analysis for today's trading day, I am anticipating a move up. The market has been sold off in a rather quick fashion and this caused the fast stochastic line to reach oversold quickly. During this market run, dips have been bought and this run has featured quite a few "V" shaped rallies. If it holds, it can get a chance to regain its lost ground but if...
SP500 fell lower but gain back all its losses quickly leaving a pin bar on the chart. The trend is bullish which add weights into this trade. My first target would be the resistance above at 2,117. Why I go long:
Bullish trend
Pin bar with long wick
Price rejects the 2,089 support level
The ES is moving slow and forming a nice flag. We have moved our stops up to further protect profits. If the flag breaks to the upside then we will expect the 2120 to get hit. With a good amount of economic news this week (including NFP) we will either get stopped out or hit our target. Either way it has been a good trade.
The market has made a nice move upward from the triangle breakout. It has now moved to the top of the channel and is looking to make a test. The indicators are all overbought. The price pattern is fairly weak.With the VIX being low and the leading indicator (Russell 2000) also showing a signal of topping out, the odds are higher for this to test 2095.
