About meStarted / sold several businesses, mostly software. Written code since age 13. Haven't had to work since 1997 but still do.
Most indicators are derived from price movement so I trade price movement with a bit of macro. Been there done that.
WTI OIL has rallied the last few days with many calling a "bottom" but overall it is a weak market with uncertain demand in Europe and coming off seasonal high demand.
I still think it tests 38 before discovering price.
Chart shows upper trend line coming into focus with another 50 cent rise. That coupled with a generally reliable negative RSI divergence (the...
This chart outperforms me again and I am thinking of simply placing half my assets in it.
It has been 4 months since I last posted an update and it completed 2 more trades in that window, one a 21% win and the next a 47% win.
This is so simple that I have a very hard time trading it. Really.
Yet it wins.
In the coming days I am going to look at this as a...
The chart shows a modified schiff pitchfork based on the Brexit panic drop and assumes a pivot is "in" from Friday's close.
That is a big "if" but basis for it is:
- Weekend headlines on Brexit are thin on immediate consequences,
- Google analytics show loss of interest in "brexit", "nasdaq" and "S&P500." The later 2 don't happen when retail investors are...
Given the size of the move on Brexit, volatility futures markets are likely to hit a period of sustained backwardation.
Pictured here is what backwardation has looked like (red channels) and how it is likely to unfold now (orange tick channels).
The channels you see are drawn around UVXY/VIX. The fact that UVXY normally loses value over time is due to contango...
H&S off support line from prior tops (red) and a move lower after a test of the lower support line of the pitchfork from the FEB 11 rally. This support line in red will very likely get retested.
I am not trading this since an entire shoulder needs to be made, so marked as neutral.
Worth watching 4 hour chart.
The candle we are in needs to finish and the next needs to paint lower for the RSI /price divergence to confirm which would mirror the same divergence of April 4th / 5th.
This one is at long term resistance and we are only 40 pts from the all time high.
Chart shows 4HR price chart of USOIL-2.52% with RSI .
Divergences are noted on chart.
Key idea to keep in mind: The market has price and momentum movement that creates the window of r a new item to catalyze a move. Look at the fat bullish divergence that was in place prior to the "Freeze Tweet" that sparked the rally. If you look at the chart, the market was...
See chart for falling wedge.
Most falling wedges resolve upward back to the base of the move. Because this is in a pitchfork, and the wedge may resolve before the median line is touched, there is a high probability that the Haplopian line gets hit on the retrace (white arrow). That places the target at around 2080.
Caution to oil shorts: 15 min USOIL showing a bullish divergence.
May re-enter channel before NY open and may get moved to top of range. If so target of 37.87.
I still doubt it will move upward from there.
I don't like to use the word "panic" much like I don't like to use "crash" since both rarely happen.
But mini-panics do happen quite a lot - where price just can't find a footing and sell orders multiply.
Look at the downward pressure on the channel here on USOIL's 4hr chart. Notice the following:
+ price under 36 has no support until the 34.40s
+ that gap was...