codypd

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About me Started / sold several businesses, mostly software. Written code since age 13. Haven't had to work since 1997 but still do. Most indicators are derived from price movement so I trade price movement with a bit of macro. Been there done that.
Joined USA codypd
Volatility nerd. Backwardation / contango. Fear ruins trades, especially the fear of getting out of a bad one. Trade safe.
Markets Allocation
25 % stocks 17 % indices 3 % commodities 54 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 17% | 12 VIX 13% | 9 UVXY 11% | 8 USOIL 11% | 8
codypd codypd USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: OIL throws negative divergence near trend resistance.
71 0 3
USOIL, 60 Short
OIL throws negative divergence near trend resistance.

WTI OIL has rallied the last few days with many calling a "bottom" but overall it is a weak market with uncertain demand in Europe and coming off seasonal high demand. I still think it tests 38 before discovering price. Chart shows upper trend line coming into focus with another 50 cent rise. That coupled with a generally reliable negative RSI divergence (the ...

codypd codypd USOIL, 60,
USOIL: OIL a buy in high 30s in early August.
76 0 6
USOIL, 60
OIL a buy in high 30s in early August.

Still very weak Oil market. High 30s is a solid support area marked on chart (scroll left for basis). I am not short ... just waiting for the buy at the end of this move.

codypd codypd SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: Two test lines in yellow before SPX500 goes to 2070
147 0 4
SPX500, 60 Short
Two test lines in yellow before SPX500 goes to 2070

Should test 2070 in next 2 days.

codypd codypd SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: Pitchfork and RSi show justification for a short here.
185 1 5
SPY, D Short
Pitchfork and RSi show justification for a short here.

Chart tells it's own story.

codypd codypd USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: WTI - Two retraces end at 76.4%?
192 0 7
USOIL, 60 Short
WTI - Two retraces end at 76.4%?

prior retrace off low on June 16 went to the 76.4 fib and established a trend line off the prior top. current retrace at same tend line and same fib.

codypd codypd SVXY/VIX, D, Short ,
SVXY/VIX: SVXY/VIX KAGI PAYS AGAIN
223 8 4
SVXY/VIX, D Short
SVXY/VIX KAGI PAYS AGAIN

This chart outperforms me again and I am thinking of simply placing half my assets in it. It has been 4 months since I last posted an update and it completed 2 more trades in that window, one a 21% win and the next a 47% win. This is so simple that I have a very hard time trading it. Really. Yet it wins. In the coming days I am going to look at this as a ...

codypd codypd SPX500, 60, Long ,
SPX500: SPX500 Trade Plan if a key pivot is in
125 0 0
SPX500, 60 Long
SPX500 Trade Plan if a key pivot is in

The chart shows a modified schiff pitchfork based on the Brexit panic drop and assumes a pivot is "in" from Friday's close. That is a big "if" but basis for it is: - Weekend headlines on Brexit are thin on immediate consequences, - Google analytics show loss of interest in "brexit", "nasdaq" and "S&P500." The later 2 don't happen when retail investors are ...

codypd codypd UVXY/VIX, D, Long ,
UVXY/VIX: WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN WITH UVXY & VOLATILITY
531 5 7
UVXY/VIX, D Long
WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN WITH UVXY & VOLATILITY

Given the size of the move on Brexit, volatility futures markets are likely to hit a period of sustained backwardation. Pictured here is what backwardation has looked like (red channels) and how it is likely to unfold now (orange tick channels). The channels you see are drawn around UVXY/VIX. The fact that UVXY normally loses value over time is due to contango ...

codypd codypd SPX500, 60,
SPX500: BEAR'S Best Hope
139 2 1
SPX500, 60
BEAR'S Best Hope

H&S off support line from prior tops (red) and a move lower after a test of the lower support line of the pitchfork from the FEB 11 rally. This support line in red will very likely get retested. I am not trading this since an entire shoulder needs to be made, so marked as neutral.

codypd codypd S5FI, D, Short ,
S5FI: Almost 3 years since more than 90% of S&P500 was over 50 DMA
92 0 4
S5FI, D Short
Almost 3 years since more than 90% of S&P500 was over 50 DMA

Doesn't mean we have topped - sideways / up movement will bring the % down as it did last spring. But we are at nosebleed altitude.

codypd codypd SPX500, 240, Short ,
SPX500: Potential price/RSI divergence on SPX
137 4 2
SPX500, 240 Short
Potential price/RSI divergence on SPX

Worth watching 4 hour chart. The candle we are in needs to finish and the next needs to paint lower for the RSI /price divergence to confirm which would mirror the same divergence of April 4th / 5th. This one is at long term resistance and we are only 40 pts from the all time high.

codypd codypd SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: SPY Island Top on negative divergence.
130 0 3
SPY, D Short
SPY Island Top on negative divergence.

Notes on chart. Notice that the gap from 4 bars back will likely be filled tomorrow. Price should fill box painted on chart on Monday. Price target 200 by Friday.

codypd codypd USOIL, 240, Short ,
USOIL: USOIL 4HR Chart shows why price & momentum  precede news
620 6 13
USOIL, 240 Short
USOIL 4HR Chart shows why price & momentum precede news

Chart shows 4HR price chart of USOIL-2.52% with RSI . Divergences are noted on chart. Key idea to keep in mind: The market has price and momentum movement that creates the window of r a new item to catalyze a move. Look at the fat bullish divergence that was in place prior to the "Freeze Tweet" that sparked the rally. If you look at the chart, the market was ...

codypd codypd UVXY, 45, Short ,
UVXY: SHORT UVXY
86 0 1
UVXY, 45 Short
SHORT UVXY

Parkfield indicator, 45 minute time frame.

codypd codypd SPX500, 30, Long ,
SPX500: Falling wedge in pitchfork - watch for new high
181 0 3
SPX500, 30 Long
Falling wedge in pitchfork - watch for new high

See chart for falling wedge. Most falling wedges resolve upward back to the base of the move. Because this is in a pitchfork, and the wedge may resolve before the median line is touched, there is a high probability that the Haplopian line gets hit on the retrace (white arrow). That places the target at around 2080.

codypd codypd UVXY, 15, Long ,
UVXY: Long UVXY
162 7 2
UVXY, 15 Long
Long UVXY

Volatility futures front running.

codypd codypd USOIL, 30,
USOIL: Bullish divergence on USOIL; may pop a bit before NY open
92 1 0
USOIL, 30
Bullish divergence on USOIL; may pop a bit before NY open

Caution to oil shorts: 15 min USOIL showing a bullish divergence. May re-enter channel before NY open and may get moved to top of range. If so target of 37.87. I still doubt it will move upward from there.

codypd codypd USOIL, 240, Short ,
USOIL: USOIL may breakdown from channel.  "Panic" condition.
563 1 7
USOIL, 240 Short
USOIL may breakdown from channel. "Panic" condition.

I don't like to use the word "panic" much like I don't like to use "crash" since both rarely happen. But mini-panics do happen quite a lot - where price just can't find a footing and sell orders multiply. Look at the downward pressure on the channel here on USOIL's 4hr chart. Notice the following: + price under 36 has no support until the 34.40s + that gap was ...

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