The S&P500 index followed our last projection we made on January 04 as after it held the Higher Lows of the October Channel Up, it rose substantially and got rejected on the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line (January 04 2022 trend-line): This happened because it failed to close a 1D candle above this huge Bear Cycle Resistance, same it did on December 01...
The chart represents the US02Y on the 1W time-frame against the S&P500 index (green trend-line). The phase that the US02Y has entered is similar to that in entered in December 1994. As you see shortly after a Golden Cross, it made a Lower High on the RSI, flashing a Bearish Divergence, while the MACD Double Topped. This is exactly the same sequence of events in...
The S&P500 index (SPX) eventually held the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up, as we outlined on our December 29 idea, and it testing today yet again the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 2022: That level has only broken once on the December 13 fake-out, same with the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is trending parallel to it....
The S&P500 is under high volatility at the moment after the CPI report matched the forecast (6.5%). The index is trading inside a Channel Up, above both the 4H MA200 and 4H MA50, with the two close to forming a Golden Cross. With most 4H technicals overbought (RSI = 70.997, MACD = 30.350, ADX = 39.740) and the price approaching the Lower Highs Resistance that is...
The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up as we showed on our last analysis, struggling to break above its 1D MA50: On the current analysis, we switch back to the longer-term dynamics and compare the 2022/23 correction (so far) to the previous Bear Cycles of 2008/09 and 2001/02, using the parameters of Inflation (red trend-line) and WTI Oil...
The S&P500 index has been trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 1D time-frame ever since the December 1st rejection on the Lower Highs Resistance (Jan 4th) and the Dec 13th rejection on the 1W MA50. With the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 50.198, MACD = -15.660, ADX = 19.596), this is technically the level to sell as the price is at the top of the Channel...
The S&P500 index (SPX) has has two major rejections since December 13, as despite breaking (only intra-day) above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04, it got rejected marginally above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the next day on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is a double failure to break-out and considering that the 1W MA50 had the precious...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding today after making a Double Test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This is just over the Channel Up pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). The sequence resembles the November 04 - 10 Higher Lows fractal (also based on the 4H MACD) and what happened then was an instant rise to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the...
A 1 year correction which is nothing but common throughout Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) existence, has done its work well in spreading fear and doubt at the market during this inflationary stock crisis in 2022. In times like this what helps the most is to maintain a long-term perspective and look at how history reacted in similar situations. We thought that nothing can...
The S&P500 index (SPX) closed the worst week since October on a not so encouraging note as the failed to break and got rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A simple comparison with the major corrections of 2002/03, 1982/83 and 1962/63 shows that as long as the index remains below the 1W MA50, the Bear Cycle is in effect. A common characteristic among all 4...
The S&P500 hit today the 3915 Support level that was formed on the November 17 Low. This also hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that started on the October 13 market low. Technically this is the most optimal buy level on the medium-term, which should test first the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) and then the Lower Highs trend-line since the...
The S&P500 got rejected just above the 1D MA200 on the Lower Highs Resistance holding since Jan 2022. Contrary to that, Dow Jones not only has broken above its Lower Highs Resistance since Nov 10th but also made a Higher High above the August High, before getting rejected. With a Golden Cross emerging on the 1D chart, Dow has high chances of bouncing on the...
The S&P500 index broke last week above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 21 but so far has failed to touch the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), getting rejected once again on the Lower Highs Zone (red) since the All Time High (ATH) of January 04 2022. That is the (obvious) Resistance that everyone is paying attention too but nobody seems to...
On this 1W time-frame we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) and the Volatility Index (VIX) since 1990. We've used the Sine Waves on an (approximately) VIX bottom-to-bottom basis in order to identify what the S&P500 normally does at this part of the Cycle. As you see from the current point and until VIX Cycle's next bottom (blue zone), the S&P500 in a total of three...
It is always best to keep a long term perspective when investing. Despite being in a correction throughout the whole 2022, the S&P500 index has been giving some very important signs that it has hit a major support level and that it remains within the boundaries of a Bull Market. To begin with, the index has been trading within a Channel Up (log scale) since March...
The S&P500 index (SPX) broke last week above the August 16 Lower Highs trend-line, following the impressive drop on October's CPI and has almost fulfilled our +5.18% bullish projection of 4040: The price is now approaching the all important 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which rejected the price and form the last top on the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line on August...
Last week has been without a doubt highlighted by the unexpectedly big drop on the U.S. CPI for October, lifting the market sentiment to one of the strongest 3 day rallies in recent history. In contrast to this euphoria we want to remind you the relative position of the thre major assets (S&P500, WTI Oil and Gold) compared to 2008. So far S&P500 is trading within...
The S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green) on Friday for the first time since September 13. The rebound started off a Double Bottom and broke above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line that is consistent with all previous short-term rallies in 2022. Based on that, the price should stay bullish for at least the next 10 days and hit the 1D MA200 (orange). We can even make a...