Support and Resistance
CAD/JPY: Bearish Breakdown to 101.92?FX:CADJPY is displaying strong bearish signals on the daily chart , with price adhering to a downward trendline established since July 11th, forming successive lower highs that underscore persistent downward momentum . The highlighted " Compress Pattern " at the lower end suggests a period of consolidation and price compression, often preceding a volatile breakout to the downside as sellers build pressure against key supports.
Entry zone between 108.86-109.75 for a short position. First target at 101.75 (risk-reward >1:2.5) , second at 101.92 (risk-reward >1:5.5) near major support zones. Set a stop loss on a close above 110.05 to guard against an upside reversal. Seek confirmation through a decisive break below the entry with elevated volume. 🌟
Fundamentally , this week we have Canada's inflation rate report, which significantly impacts CAD—recent data shows September YoY inflation at 1.9% and core at 2.6%, potentially influencing BoC policy. Additionally, Japan's trade balance report this week could introduce volatility to JPY, with the Merchandise Trade Balance Total scheduled for October 22st. 💡
📝 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry Zone: 108.86 – 109.75 (short entry near resistance/trendline)
❌ Stop Loss: Close above 110.05
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 107.75 (R:R > 1:2.5)
TP2: 101.92 (R:R > 1:5.5)
What's your perspective on this setup? Share in the comments! 👇
GOLD LONG 1hr setup
### 🧠 **Market Context & Liquidity**
- Gold took out some sellside liquidty
- We’re watching for whether buyers hold above the daily open or if we see a pullback into support.
- Key levels to watch:
- **Resistance:** 4,128 – 4,130 (recent high)
- **Support:** 4,107 – 4,112 (consolidation low & potential buy zone)
---
### 🐊 **Bill Williams Alligator Signal**
- The **Alligator** is awake and aligned — jaws above teeth above lips — indicating a **trending market**.
- Price is trading **above the Alligator**, supporting a **bullish bias**.
- Pullbacks into the Alligator (lips/teeth) are potential entries if structure holds.
---
### 🎯 **Gold (GC1!) Trade Plan – Long Setup**
- **Entry Zone:** 4,110 – 4,128 (support + Alligator confluence)
- **Stop Loss:** Below 4,057
- **TP1:** 4,128
- **TP2:** 4,200 4hr fvg (sibi)
---
### ✅ **Confirmation Needed:**
- Bullish reaction off support with volume.
- No loss of 4,107 level.
- Alligator continues pointing upward.
---
**Bottom Line:**
Gold is in a bullish structure above the Alligator.
Look for longs into support with a tight stop.
Trade the pullback — not the breakout.
GOLD → Fundamental background boosts interest FX:XAUUSD is recovering after a correction, trading in the range of 4060-4120 amid geopolitical tensions and risks of an escalating trade war.
Key supporting factors: New threats from the US against China, which is responding with additional measures. Trump imposed sanctions against Russian oil companies, accusing Moscow of lack of progress on Ukraine. US inflation data (CPI) on Friday may cause volatility, although the Fed's rate cut next week is likely already priced in.
The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping next week remains uncertain.
Gold remains a safe haven, but near-term dynamics depend on the balance between dollar strength and geopolitical risks.
Resistance levels: 4116, 4163, 4200
Support levels: 4082, 4060, 4002
A retest of support at 4082-4060, as well as a breakout of resistance at 4116, could trigger a bullish reaction—a rise to the resistance level or imbalance zones. Against the backdrop of the escalating trade war, gold is becoming attractive again.
Best regards, R. Linda!
DeGRAM | ETHUSD is correcting📊 Technical Analysis
● ETH/USD remains in a broad ascending channel but is now testing its mid-range support near 3,900 after multiple rejections from the upper resistance line.
● A breakdown below 3,800 may trigger a move toward 3,380, aligning with the lower boundary of the long-term channel and completing a corrective wave.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Ethereum’s price faces pressure amid slower network activity and rising competition from L2 ecosystems, while macro uncertainty weighs on crypto sentiment.
✨ Summary
● Short bias below 3,900; targets 3,380. Structural breakdowns and weaker fundamentals point to a medium-term retracement phase.
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SP500 currently showing bearish trend structureThe NASDAQ 100 is currently showing signs of price consolidation within a bearish trend structure. Selling pressure continues to build as price action remains capped below key resistance levels.
While short-term fluctuations may occur during earnings releases, technical indicators suggest that the bearish bias remains intact unless the price breaks decisively above resistance. Traders should watch for reversal signals around current resistance before considering short positions.
A Price is testing the upper resistance, suggesting that momentum may be losing steam The broader bias remains bearish, with sellers likely to regain control if the resistance holds a potential downside move could target the 6518 level, provided the market confirms rejection from resistance.
You may find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies.
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$RGTI: Reaction from Macro Resistance and Structural OutlookPrice reacted as expected from the key resistance outlined in the October update.
The main hypothesis remains that price has likely topped and is now completing its first wave of decline.
Any upcoming recovery attempt will be considered a bounce and potential lower high formation before further downside later this year.
Chart:
In the broader context, the critical zone to monitor is the 35–25 support area.
If price manages to stage an impulsive 5-wave recovery from this zone, the probability for another upside leg toward the next macro resistance at 85–115 will remain valid.
However, if the recovery from this area unfolds as a corrective 3-wave structure, then a breakdown below the Dec’24 top and continuation into the macro support zone will become the higher-probability scenario.
Chart (weekly):
Previous Updates
• On macro resistance and potential topping (Oct 13)
Chart:
View Idea
• On support and pullback potential (Sep 24)
Chart:
View Idea
• On macro structure (Sep 18)
Chart:
View Idea
USNASDEQ100 currently showing bearish momentumThe US NASDAQ 100 is currently showing bearish momentum after recent downside consolidation. The index remains under selling pressure following disappointing earnings reports particularly from Netflix — which dampened risk sentiment.
Additionally, reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering new export restrictions on China involving U.S. software have further weighed on market confidence may price test the Around 25,000, where reactions could occur. If selling pressure continues, the next major support could be near 24,500.
You may find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Suppooritng.
Pullback in Oil a selling opportunity? Oil markets received a boost in recent trading following the announcement of US sanctions on major Russian Oil producers: Rosneft and Lukoil.
Pushing price action above two key resistance levels at US$58.34 (6M) and US$59.46 (3M), WTI Oil is fast closing in on resistance from US$61.22 (1Y). It is worth considering that the recent upside move could simply be a pullback within a market that has been trending lower since the beginning of this year; therefore, sellers may make a show from US$61.22 if tested. Alternatively, a break higher opens the door to a larger area of resistance between US$64.82 and US$62.97 – a zone formed of 1M and 1W levels.
Written by the FP Markets Research Team
BNB 1H ChartCRYPTOCAP:BNB 1H Chart
Forming a Cup & Handle pattern.
Price holding above the FVG 1H zone, watching for a breakout above ~$1.1k
Next target: $1,190 (+7–8%) if momentum continues. 🚀
EURCAD → Retest of liquidity pool before growth FX:EURCAD is forming a correction to the key liquidity zone amid a global and fairly strong bullish trend. Will the bulls enter the game in the 1.6173 zone?
The euro is forming a correction to the strong support zone of 1.16, which is provoking a decline in the currency pair. The key area that the currency pair is striving for is 1.6173. The trend is bullish. A reaction from the bulls is possible...
A false breakout of resistance is forming a correction. However, the price is still within the trading range of 1.64 - 1.6173. The price is heading towards support for a retest, and the indicated zone is likely to stop the correction...
Resistance levels: 1.633, 1.64
Support levels: 1.6173, 1.603
A liquidity pool below 1.62 - 1.617 could change the game in favor of buyers. Remember, the trend is bullish, and this will be a clear advantage for players. A false breakdown of support and the absence of a downward momentum could trigger growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold – Has the Positioning Cleanout Ended?In our update on Monday, we discussed the possible involvement of speculators in recent Gold moves and the potential for higher volatility that this could generate because they tend to liquidate positions quickly when a particular move turns stale.
It seems this may have had an impact on Gold prices this week, with a push to record highs of 4381 on Monday followed by a sharp reversal and drop down to lows at 4004 on Wednesday morning, a straight line move that may have more similarities with Bitcoin price action than the potential number 1 safe haven asset of choice for investors.
Now, with traders still reeling from the speed of changes in Gold prices, the emphasis may shift to short term drivers with the US and EU announcing further sanctions on Russian energy in an attempt to end the war in Ukraine, while uncertainty is growing around trade discussions between the US and China after the White House yesterday announced it is considering applying new broad software export restrictions against China, bringing into doubt the ability of the 2 sides to reach an agreement in time for President Trump and Chinese President Xi to potentially still meet at some stage next week.
Also, with the on-going US government shutdown starving traders of some key economic data readings ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision next week (Wednesday October 29th), the delayed US CPI reading on Friday, due at 1330 BST may take on increased significance. Any CPI reading above market expectations could lead to a stronger dollar with potential negative implications for Gold, while an in-line or below print could help to stabilise prices around current levels.
Looking forward, with so much uncertainty surrounding the current direction of Gold, it can be helpful to adapt your approach from a technical aspect to initiating trades. This may mean assessing the wider perspective through a daily chart, before moving to a more near-term approach, using a 4 hourly chart to monitor prices ahead of the key risk events into the weekend.
This may help you to adjust your time horizons to potentially take advantage of any short term over extension of moves that could be followed by a quick snap back/reversal as investors consider the wider macro backdrop.
Technical Update: Gold - The Daily Perspective
During periods of high volatility, prices often become stretched away from the 20-period Bollinger mid-average, driven by momentum or sentiment extremes. However, when sentiment shifts direction, price tends to snap back sharply to the average, highlighting the market’s tendency to revert after an overextension.
As shown on the daily chart above, Gold’s latest price weakness could possibly be seen as a similar snap-back move. However, the rising daily Bollinger mid-average, currently at 4037, has so far held the decline on a closing basis, suggesting reversion might be at play following recent volatility.
Traders could now be focusing on this 4037 Bollinger mid-average as a daily support focus, with closing defence of this level watched over the coming key risk events.
However, by also monitoring the 4-hourly chart, it may offer earlier clues to shorter term directional risks, helping traders to anticipate whether longer term momentum is building again or may stall.
Potential Shorter Term Support Levels:
With the 4037 daily Bollinger mid-average already acting as support, the 4-hourly chart perhaps adds another layer of interest. It suggests 4004 as also a potential support level. This is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September 18th to October 20th rally, and current price action suggests attempts at recovery may well be developing from here.
While not a guarantee of further weakness, 4-hourly closing breaks below the 4004/4037 range, a combination of both the daily and 4 hourly supports, could signal further price weakness. Such breaks may open the way for tests of 3944, the October 9th low, and potentially 3915, the deeper 62% Fibonacci retracement.
Potential Shorter Term Resistance Levels:
Following the recent recovery from the 4004/4037 support zone, the 4-hourly chart suggests 4141 could now be the first resistance focus. This level marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 20th to 21st decline and has already capped earlier attempts at price strength on Wednesday, perhaps further increasing traders attention on this level.
A confirmed 4-hour closing break above 4141 in Gold could lead to further attempts to move higher with 4184, the 50% retracement of the recent decline potentially then the next resistance.
If this level gives way, the rally could have potential to extend towards 4227, which is the higher 62% retracement.
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Gold have chance for growth again what's should nextGold has entered a correction phase following a strong bullish move earlier in the month. The price action is currently consolidating within a range, suggesting the market is preparing for its next directional move.
Technically, gold recently reached a record high, prompting many traders to close long positions and take profit. This has led to a gradual shift in market sentiment, with short-term pressure toward the downside at present, the 4,000 level is emerging as a key support zone, where buyers may look to re-enter the market. If the price holds above this area, a bullish recovery could follow on the upside, the next resistance levels are seen at 4,100 and 4,150.
A sustained break above these zones could open the way for renewed bullish momentum.
However, the broader dynamics will depend heavily on upcoming fundamental catalysts, particularly developments in global trade negotiations and macroeconomic data influencing risk sentiment and the U.S. dollar.
You can find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely / Best of luck buddies.
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Bitcoin Short Term Setup – One More Push Before Fall?As I expected in yesterday’s idea , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) dropped down into the lower ranges of the Heavy Support zone($111,980-$105,820) .
Today, I want to share a quick 15-minute timeframe analysis with you.
Currently, Bitcoin is moving near that Support zone($107,580-$106,700) , but it hasn’t managed to break the lower line of the ascending broadening wedge pattern with strong momentum .
So I expect Bitcoin might at least make another move up to the Resistance zone($110,430-$109,380) . If BTC finds a Short Trigger near the Resistance zone and Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($111,687-$110,198) , it could drop sharply afterward, potentially breaking the Heavy Support zone eventually.
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $106,090-$104,234
Stop Loss(SL): $104,077
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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GOLD Update: Rejection or Breakout? Critical Zone Ahead (4120–42Description
Timeframe: 1H
Structure: Classical Channel Range
Gold price has reclaimed its upward channel and is now testing the mid-level resistance near 4120. Market participants are closely watching whether bulls can maintain momentum — or if sellers will step back in.
🟢 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation
If price holds above 4126 (support) and breaks through the resistance near 4205, buyers could target the next supply area above 4200–4220 range.
This would confirm continuation inside the rising channel structure.
🔴 Scenario 2 – Bearish Pullback
Failure to sustain above 4120 could trigger a retest toward 4055.
A deeper rejection may even drive price back to 3958, aligning with the broader demand zone.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 4205
Support 1: 4126
Support 2: 4055
Major Support: 3958
Price currently consolidating between 4120–4200 — expect volatility ahead of USD news events.
🟡 This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
GOLD → Correction after aggressive growthFX:XAUUSD is in a correction phase after a month and a half of aggressive growth. The price is forming a trading range and continues to storm support...
The record growth was overheated, and traders are closing long positions. A gradual change in the fundamental background and market sentiment is also provoking an outflow of funds. However, US-China negotiations, the ongoing US shutdown, and the tense geopolitical situation, including the cancellation of Trump's meeting with Putin, create additional risks in the economy, which may support the metal.
The correction in gold looks like a healthy pause. The $4,000 level remains key support. A recovery above $4100 indicates continued buyer interest, but further dynamics depend on news about trade negotiations.
Resistance levels: 4082, 4107, 4163
Support levels: 4059, 4000
A breakdown of the trading range support could trigger further sell-offs. Focus on 4000K, aggressive reaction possible. At the moment, the market is falling as aggressively as it rose. We need to wait for the price to slow down in order to make reasonable technical decisions.
Best regards, R. Linda!
BITCOIN → Trend reversal. Is there a chance for growth?BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is breaking the trend and local market structure, forming a rally. Giving hope to buyers, we see a strong reaction from the Asian session. Are the bulls returning?
The fundamental background is unstable; if Trump continues to escalate the trade war, the cryptocurrency market may close within the range. However, technically, we have positive signs of a bull market. BTC is breaking through the resistance level of 107,350 and entering a rally, which only confirms the change in trend and the breakdown of the structure. Since the Asian session, the price has strengthened by 3%, and a retest of the nearest strong resistance at 112K-113.6K could lead to a pullback before growth.
Globally, there is bearish pressure, but if the bulls can hold their defense above 110K, then in the medium term, the market will be able to fight for the 115K-120K zone.
Resistance levels: 111960, 113600, 115730
Support levels: 109700, 109200
In the short term, I expect a false breakout of the specified resistance and a correction of 1/2 of the local impulse, i.e., a retest of the 110K - 109200 support zone, which, in turn, could lead to another bullish run to 115K - 120K.
Best regards, R. Linda!
ETHEREUM → Manipulation before a possible fall BINANCE:ETHUSDT , as part of manipulation and updating the local maximum to 4108, confirms strong resistance, forms a false breakout, and falls, testing key support.
Bitcoin, as part of yesterday's rally in the US trading session, is trying to turn the tide, but after encountering resistance at 113600, it forms a false breakout and sells off all the growth, which is generally a signal of readiness for a decline. This could have a negative impact on the entire market...
Ethereum is testing support - trigger 3822.5. After a sharp drop, there is no rebound, which indicates buyer weakness. Consolidation is forming near support, which only reinforces the pre-breakdown potential.
Resistance levels: 3963, 4030, 4090
Support levels: 3822, 3660, 3366
The classic implementation of the “liquidity hunt” scenario led to a rally to resistance, and a false breakout at 4090 led to heavy selling. As part of the current consolidation, the market is reducing volatility ahead of support, which only increases the chances of a breakdown. A close below 3822 could trigger a further decline. Key liquidity zones are 3658 - 3366.
Best regards, R. Linda!
WE ARE BUYING A buy around 4090-4085 and tp at 4200 or 4230 , sl at 4070, i will give some information lately by afternoon time so be around
What is Equilibrium in SMC. Balance and Imbalance in Forex Gold
Equilibrium is one of the core elements for understanding market liquidity.
In this article, we will go through the essential basics of liquidity in Forex trading with Smart Money Concepts SMC.
You will learn the interconnections between supply and demand and I will explain how to easily identify balance and imbalance on any market.
Let's start our discussion with understanding how forex pairs move.
The price of an asset goes up if the market demand is stronger than the market supply. The excess of buying activity make the markets update the highs. In smart money concepts, such an event will also be called a buying imbalance.
Look at a strong bullish rally on Gold.
The price is going up because of a buying imbalance.
A strong buying activity creates a massive amount of buyers with unfilled orders.
To entice sellers to start selling, they must offer a higher-better price.
At the same time, if the price of an asset goes down , it means that the market supply is stronger than a demand. The excess of supply will make the markets update the lows. In smc, it will be called a selling imbalance.
That is exactly what is happening with GBPUSD forex pair.
A strong selling activity and the shortage of demand makes the price go down.
The excess of supply or demand on the market can not be eternal.
The lower the price becomes, the more buyers will start buying, and the more sellers will start closing their positions.
At some moment, the surplus of supply will be absorbed by the buyers.
That will be a moment when the market will find equilibrium , the balance between supply and demand.
A strong bearish imbalance on USDJPY made the price drop significantly.
The falling price made 3 things:
It attracted more buyers, because the lower the price the more profitable is buying USDJPY.
It discouraged some buyers from buying, considering that the price is already "too low".
It encouraged some buyers to close their positions in profit.
Because of that, USDJPY stopped falling and found a balance in supply and demand. That is what we call Equilibrium .
In a bull run, the higher the price will go, the more sellers will start selling.
At some moment, buying imbalance will be absorbed by the bears and supply & demand will eventually balance.
Such an event will be called the equilibrium .
EURGBP was rallying strongly.
The higher the price went, the more sellers started to sell, considering selling the pair more and more profitable.
And the same time, fewer buyers were buying and the more started to close their buy positions in profits.
At some moment, the entire excess of the market demand was absorbed by a supply. The market stopped growing and equilibrium was found.
One of the main characteristics of a market equilibrium is sideways price movement and a termination of a formation of new highs or new lows.
Usually, such a sideways price action will form a horizontal range.
That's a real example how a CAD JPY pair found an equilibrium after an extended bearish movement. A formation of a horizontal range confirmed a balance between a supply and a demand.
Please, note that these ranges will form on any time frame that you analyse.
The rule is that the higher is the time frame of the range, the stronger is the market equilibrium.
Above, I have 3 different charts:
USDJPY on a daily time frame, EURJPY on a 4H and GBPUSD on 15 minutes.
All the pairs found an equilibrium in horizontal ranges.
An equilibrium on USDJPY will signify intra week or even intra month balance,
while on EURJPY it will mean intraday/intra week balance.
On GBPUSD, it will signify intraday equilibrium.
Market equilibrium can not last forever.
Fundamentals news and changing market conditions, make the market participants constantly reassess a fair value of an asset.
A violation of the range and a breakout of one of its boundaries will be a trigger of an occurrence of an imbalance .
A bullish violation of the upper boundary of the range will signify a buying imbalance and a highly probable rise to the new highs.
While a bearish violation of the lower boundary of the range will mean a selling imbalance and a highly probable fall to the new lows.
Please, study how GBPCHF was moving for a week on an hourly time frame.
The periods of balance were changed by the periods of bullish or bearish imbalances, that found a new equilibrium on higher/lower price levels.
Understanding of basic principles of supply and demand in trading is essential for profitable trading smart money concepts.
Learn to recognize the periods of imbalance and equilibrium.
It will provide you the edge in understanding and trading any forex pair.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
The trend line is not broken and the medium to long term is bull
Good morning, bros. Gold has fallen from its high of 4380, dropping nearly $380. This significant drop is relatively rare in the past six months. However, judging from the 4H cycle trend, the current gold price is still above the rising trend line. The 4000 mark is a defensive point for bulls. The decline will only continue after successfully breaking through 4000. Yesterday, the lowest point only retreated to around 4015-4005 before it began to rebound. Although it did not provide us with an ideal entry opportunity, it also confirmed the determination of the buyers below to hold on to the 4000 mark. Therefore, until a clear break below the trend line is achieved, our bullish outlook remains unchanged.
The gold price rebounded to around 4135 during the day and then fell back. As I told you yesterday, this position is a relatively dense trading area. I believe the current decline is the market accumulating strength to hit yesterday's rebound high, and it also provides us with a good opportunity to enter the long market. Pay attention to 4110-4100 below. If it retreats to this range, you can try to go long on gold in batches. The first target can continue to look at 4135-4145.
OANDA:XAUUSD
USDJPY: Price Progressively Heading Towards Resistance ?Hi Teams!
Lets take a perspective on USDJPY, the pair have on bullish momentum for this few days. recently the upward movement own in favor of the buyers, meanwhile there is an expectation of downward moment coming soon.
Key points:
A clear reversal below the resistance would set off a sell signal aiming 149.76 as next possible support.
Like and follow up
Thanks for reading.
