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Technical Analysis

GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and USD/JPY on watch for me today.GBP/USD: • If price pushes up to give us a confirmed second top and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart. • If price pushes up to give us a confirmed second top and the last part of the move is impulsive, then I'll be awaiting a subsequent convincing impulse down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place either of these trades. AUD/JPY: • If price pushes down to give us a confirmed second bottom and then it pushes up to give us a confirmed second top and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart. • If price pushes down to give us a confirmed second bottom and then it pushes up to give us a confirmed second top and the last part of the move is impulsive, then I'll be awaiting a subsequent convincing impulse down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place either of these trades. NZD/JPY: • If price pushes down to give us a more horizontal pair of bottoms and then it pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then so long as the last part of this move up is corrective I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry after a phase line break on the one hour or the fifteen minute chart. • If price pushes down to give us a more horizontal pair of bottoms and then it pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline then so long as this move up is impulsive I'll be awaiting an impulse back down below it followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place either of these trades. USD/JPY: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our higher time frame rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down below both it and the lower ascending trend line of the corrective channel to the left followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade.
Short
by StewySongs
26
GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/CAD on watch for me today.GBP/JPY: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper trend line and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking for a risk entry after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart. • If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above our upper trend line, then I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down below our rayline followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how price does so I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If none of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place any of these trades. EUR/JPY • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper trend line and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking for a risk entry after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart. • If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above our upper trend line, then I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down below our rayline followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how price does so I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If none of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place any of these trades. USD/CAD • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower trend line and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking for a risk entry after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart. • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline, then regardless of how price does so I'll be waiting for a convincing push back up followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price only pushes down to our upper rayline, then again regardless of how price does so I'll be waiting for a convincing push back up followed by a tight flag where I'll again be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If none of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place any of these trades.
by StewySongs
5
Update on the SPX - in need of some consolidation near termDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CBOE:SPXLong
by The_STA
NZD/USD and GBP/USD on watch for me today.NZD/USD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper trend line and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking for a risk entry after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart. • If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above our upper trend line , then I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down below our rayline followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how price does so I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place any of these trades. GBP/USD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper trend line and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking for a risk entry after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart. • If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above our upper trend line , then I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down below our rayline followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how price does so I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If none of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place any of these trades.
Short
by StewySongs
38
We adjust our negative stance on EUR/USD to neutralFollowing a week where we saw the Fed pause and the ECB raise rates, the Euro is looking a bit more positive and we will for now drop our negative bias and adopt a more neutral stance to see how it deals with tougher resistance near the 1.11 mark. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
by The_STA
GBP/USD on watch for me today.GBP/USD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper trend line and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking for a risk entry after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart because we will have had a completed three touch structure. • If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above either our upper trend line, our upper rayline or our lower rayline, then I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag and if the flag forms just below our lower rayline as illustrated I'll be hiding my stop loss above it for extra protection as illustrated. • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our lower rayline, then regardless of how price does so I'll be waiting for a convincing push back down followed by a tight flag where I'll be looking for a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If none of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place any of these trades.
Short
by StewySongs
44
AUD/USD, USD/SGD, EUR/CAD and USD/CAD on watch for me today.AUD/USD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price simply impulses back up above our rayline, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll again be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place either of these trades. USD/SGD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade. EUR/CAD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price simply impulses back down, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight one hour flag forms, then I'll again be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place either of these trades. USD/CAD: • If price impulses down below our rayline and it does so in a convincing manner, then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of a subsequent tight flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade.
by StewySongs
10
GBP/USD is in one-year highs - where is the next resistance?GBP/USD is in one-year highs - where is the next resistance? In between 1.2867/85 lies a short term resistance line, the 55-month ma, the 200-weel ma and the 23.6% retracement of the entire move down from the 2007 peak. We recommend tightening up stops as we approach this tough zone as we would allow for some profit taking in this vicinity. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
by The_STA
WTICO/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD on watch for me today.WTICO/USD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our outer structure upper rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price only pushes up to and ideally just above the upper rayline of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll once again be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place either of these trades. USD/JPY: • If price impulses back down below the upper trend line of our most recent piece of structure, it does so in a convincing manor and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade. AUD/USD: • If price impulses back up, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade.
by StewySongs
12
EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and USD/CAD on watch for me today.EUR/JPY: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade. USD/JPY: • If price continues to correct between now and I'm awake to place the order then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of this tight one hour flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade. USD/CAD: • If price breaks the upper descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade.
by StewySongs
38
US30: Price levels and pattern analysis post-FMOCToday's focus: US30 Pattern – Ascending Triangle, low rejection, Resistance Possible targets – 35,260 - 33,255 Support – 33,790 Resistance – 34,310 Today we have looked at the US30 after this morning’s FOMC. The Fed held rates but commented that we could see two more rises this year. With price bouncing back after testing lower, could we see a new shot at resistance, or will we see sellers make a new test lower, breaking the current uptrend? If the trend is broken, could this set up a new move back to test the long-term pattern base? On the other side, could buyers make a new move to test or break key resistance? With rate raises back on the agenda will this maintain the current key resistance and hold price in its overall pattern? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:US30
by Eightcap
How to adjust Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Hey Traders so today I wanted to make a quick video on what to do if your using Fibonacci and the market makes new highs or lows. I only use the daily charts however this may be able to also be applied to other time frames. The key in my opinion is to try and follow the market and let it confirm new levels before adjusting. Also in long term trends you may have to keep making adjustments multiple times before the market hits a top or a bottom. Enjoy! Trade Well, Clifford
CME_MINI:ESU2023
by TradeTheIndex
EUR/USD approaching key resistance - allow for initial failureDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Short
by The_STA
$SPY Intra-Day Bearish SignalsIn terms of market direction, the short term trend is bullish, as the 9ema is trading above the 20ema. Moreover, the medium term trend is bullish, as the 20ema is trading above the 50ema. Finally, the long term trend is bullish, as the 50ema is trading above the 200ema. As a friendly reminder, given that all three trends are bullish, it would be prudent to think long and hard about whether or not there is truly a technical basis for entering a bearish swing trade at this time. That being said, how strong is the current trend? Notably, we closed above not only last week's high, but also the previous trading day's high as well. This is an indication that the bullish trend is rather strong. Another way that traders analyze the strength of a trend is by appeal to the Average Directional Index (ADX), in which high readings are suggestive of strong trends and low readings are suggestive of weak trends or chop. At the moment, the ADX has a value of 50.25, indicating an extremely strong trend that is likely soon approaching exhaustion and at risk of correction or reversal. We also have to consider the two main momentum oscillators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator. Currently, the RSI reading is 83.57, indicating that the market is technically overbought and may be due for a correction or trend reversal. For its part, the Stochastic Oscillator currently has a reading of 96, indicating that the market is technically overbought and may be due for a correction or trend reversal. Beyond the momentum oscillators, we also need to familiarize ourselves with the relationship between current price and the Bollinger Bands. At the moment, price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the uptrend may soon encounter resistance. With regard to the question of trend reversal, we need to check for any crossovers between certain indicators and their respective moving averages. Currently, the RSI is above its 14-candle moving average, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Currently, the Stochastic Oscillator is above its 3-candle moving average, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Finally, the MACD is above the signal, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Crosssover analysis is not the only way to test for potential trend reversal. Another strategy involves looking for divergence between indicator readings and price action. At this time, there is bearish divergence between RSI and price action. Moreover, there is currently bearish divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator and price action. Finally, at this time there is currently no divergence between MACD and price action. -------- Short levels: 439.04, 441.07, 443.11, 445.14
AMEX:SPYShort
by FadingExtremes
How to Analyze the $SPY Daily ChartGreetings fellow traders, Welcome to this installment of our newsletter where we analyze price action on AMEX:SPY on the daily, hourly, and 15 minute timeframes. We will keep this one short and sweet. DAILY TIMEFRAME What is the Trend? The short term trend is bullish: the 9-candle EMA is trading above the 20-candle EMA. The medium term trend is bullish: the 20-candle EMA is trading above the 50-candle EMA. The longer term trend is bullish: the 50-candle EMA is trading above the 200-candle EMA. How Strong is the Current Trend? One of the ways that traders can analyze the strength of a trend is by appeal to the Average Directional Index (ADX). Readings below 20 indicate a weak or non-existent trend. If the ADX is going up, readings between 20 and 40 indicate a developing early trend of low to moderate strength. Readings between 40 and 55 indicate a strong, well-established and robust trend. And finally readings above 55 indicate an extremely strong trend that is likely approaching exhaustion. At the moment, the ADX is 25.04 on the daily chart, indicating a low strength trend that can, with additional momentum, pick up steam. But how likely is this? In order to answer that question, we are going to have to look at several other technical indicators, supply and demand levels, and chart patterns. One of these technical indicators is the relationship between the 9-candle EMA and the 20-candle EMA. Despite the impressive upward move in price action yesterday, the distance between the 9-candle EMA and the 20-candle EMA remained constant from the day before. If the trend was strong, you would expect the distance between the two to be increasing. The fact that it did not is a potential warning sign that the trend is not extremely strong at the moment. What do the Momentum Oscillators Tell Us? Another thing to consider are the two main momentum oscillators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator. These momentum oscillators can give us clues as to whether or not the current trend is reaching exhaustion, or if it is likely to continue. Let’s first consider RSI. As of yesterday’s close, we have an RSI reading of 65.86 — a reading that is approaching the technical overbought level of 70. For reference, the last time that AMEX:SPY was trading at these levels was in August of 2022. During that incredible summer rally, the RSI pushed all the way up to 73.43 before the trend reached exhaustion and a powerful reversal ensued. Bearing that in mind, you should not necessarily be surprised if AMEX:SPY were to push into that overbought territory this time around as well before reversing. That being said, the Stochastic Oscillator is flashing a reading of 97.52, which is incredibly close to the maximum overbought reading of 100. This is a major indication for technical analysts that we may soon see a mean reversion in price action so that this all-important momentum oscillator can “cool off” for a bit. Indeed, it has been 6 days since AMEX:SPY last made contact with its 9-candle EMA, suggesting that we are potentially due for a basic reversion to the mean in price action. If we were to first push higher, though, there are a few levels on AMEX:SPY to keep in mind. How High can the Market Push? The first is the upper Bollinger Band, which closed yesterday at 430.97. While that value will shift higher today, this upper band is a level to keep in mind as potential resistance should the market catch an end-of-the-week bid. The second level is the high from August 2022: 431.73. Both of these levels are within reach if bulls want them. Finally, if things get really crazy, keep your eyes on 435.34. Are there Signs of Bearish Divergence? Notwithstanding the potential for one final push to enter the overbought territory on RSI, it is very important to note that on Monday of this week we received a technical bearish divergence signal in price action. Even though the market made a higher high than at any point in the previous 30 trading days, we did not get a higher high in: The reading on the Relative Strength Index The reading on the Stochastic Oscillator The reading on MACD When these indicators fail to make higher highs while price is making higher highs, this is an incredibly strong sign of bearish divergence. Should the market push into close, positioning for a mean reversion pullback during power hour should certainly be on watch. What are the Mean Reversion Price Targets? However high price ultimately pushes before reversal, it would be prudent to keep the following potential pullback levels in mind if you are trying to play a mean-reversion trade. The first target would be the 9-candle EMA. While it is currently trading at 424.54, this value will change with each passing day. You can use this, or potentially the 14-candle EMA, as your first “profit-taking target” for a mean reversion trading strategy. Do keep in mind, though, that there is currently some solid demand between 426.14 and 425.82 that we will have to break through in order to gain some selling momentum. The second target, should the first be broken, would be 422.58, a previous resistance level. The third “stretch” target would be around 420.73. Anything below 420 would likely see 418.31. What are the Main Supply and Demand Levels to Add to our Charts? Finally, make sure to track the recent supply and demand levels on the daily timeframe: 429.62 420.72 417.62 415.72 411.92 Stay tuned for the follow-up video where we zoom in on the hourly chart for more specific short-term guidance.
AMEX:SPY
by FadingExtremes
Will JPY momentum carry forward and set off further selling?Today's focus: JPY AUDJPY GBPJPY Pattern – Fade Resistance holds Possible targets – AUDJPY 92.50/92.30 GBPJPY 173.39/172.95 Support – AUDJPY 92.30 GBPJPY 173.15 Resistance – AUDJPY 93.30 GBPJPY 174.20 Today’s update focuses on JPY strength, that we have seen picking up since yesterday’s US session. We have looked at the AUDJPY and GBPJPY in detail. Are we seeing a turn in momentum? Both of these markets showed strength in the short term or sit in uptrends. After seeing the fades yesterday and today combined with resistance, could this be of sellers gaining control? Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
Short
by Eightcap
Looking at USD/CAD ahead of BOC rate decisionDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
by The_STA
Looking at near term support and resistance for EUR/USDGenerally, I find that once something starts trending, the combination of a 20-day ma, coupled with cloud resistance on a 4-hourly chart and Fibonacci resistance is a good guide to likely resistance in this case. The 2020 low at 1.0636 is expected to act as your near-term break point on the downside. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Short
by The_STA
1