If you follow my work, you know how the Bond market is crucial to my analysis. It is the largest market in the world, and we are heading to a period where central banks really have no ammunition anymore and are using rhetoric to maintain confidence in the system. The history of humanity is cycles of hard money and soft money. It seems we are reaching the end of...
The 10 year has rebounded off the major 1M Support this month, making a statement with last week's strong 1W candle. This marked a Triple Top formation on the 1M scale (since 2012) and the trend shift becomes obvious. 1D is trading near overbought territory (RSI = 70.811) pushing the 1W towards neutrality (RSI = 42.781, ADX = 58.406, Highs/Lows = 0.0000),...
TNX has been trading within a 1M Channel Down since 2000 up until January 2018 when it broke the pattern upwards. The mini uptrend found Resistance on the MA200 and has been declining for the past 7 months. We are currently on the most support tests of all, as it has touched the 2000 Channel's Lower High trend line and will test it as a Support for the first time....
Should move to 3.32 which is a measured move from the initial bullish drive from the Brexit low.
Looking for long opportunities on the bond market..
If you caught this trade congrats...it's a nice move but it's time to trim some and pull down stops. If you missed this trade don't chase down here. Wait for another pullback. You can also take a look at the Bonds...they have yet to break down.
One target and stopped for us on the Notes. Looks like we were early on ti trade even though we believe lower note price are in the cards. We will keep our eye it...closely
Target #1 is in the books but there was a nasty reversal and it looks like the rest of our trade is in jeopardy. We will honor the stops.
The Notes trigger short for us. We are keeping stops a little tight as rumors spread about the FED. Regardless of any rumors we will manage the trade like all others.
The Notes had a nice fake break and are now wanting to test the lower part of the wedge. The Bonds broke their weekly wedge and closed on their Friday lows which tells us the Notes and Bonds are weak. We are looking for a short position on bounces in the Trigger Zone. This is a Weekly chart trade and we will be looking for huge break down on the Notes. ...