Another rejection of this zone is needed to reverse the consolidation in the NAS. If this breaks watching for a back-test and the potential of a pressure valve to the upside for rates.
After an 11% move from the Higher Low on 11/19, the 10 Year Bond has gained and back-tested the channel .382. NASDAQ is finding resistance under the 2 hour 8 EMA. The Russell 2000 is in a downtrend with resistance at the 2h MBB.
A divergence between the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq has appeared, setting-up the rubber-band trade, whereby the indices tend to trend back towards their means. The question is when, as OPEX day is here and volatility may be on tap. NAS is supported by the 2h 8 EMA while SPX is attempting to recover it's overnight loss of the 50 SMA.
Teh 10 Year Notes Rally, after a series of confirmed Bull Flags, stalled at the larger Fibonacci scaffolding .35. The Monthly view is presenting a massive iH&S, with price at the neckline. A break of this key spot zone would put broader market consolidation on watch.
Welcome to Opex week; as the 10Y Note catches a demand zone off the H&S neckline. Watching the bullflag boundary as a proxy for the direction of NASDAQ.
Found some buyers off the Golden Pocket of the H&S Pattern Break Target Ruler.
Need to move this chart to the top of the heap each day to keep the profile in mind for 2022. With BTC finding Institutional Support through Futures, ETFs, and Options the interplay between Big Tech, Inflationary pressures, the Bonds, and Crypto looks like a place to spend some time. For now, the cheap money looks to add fuel to the Rally. The PPI was in good...
The Market signaled confidence in Dovish Fiscal Policy through a confirmed Bear-Flag as the Monthly iH&S neckline was defended.
All eyes on Chairman Powell today. Is the taper announcement today and is it priced in? Is the pain trade to upside? Will inflation worries reemerge? The bond yields should help tell us the story.
Wicked the neckline of the long framed iH&S to fuel the tech earnings run.
The Rising Wedge broke bear through a H&S pattern. Price is holding, looking for it's Higher Low. With Tech earnings a mixed bag rotations into Russell after the wedge back test are on watch.
Price continues to challenge the monthly iH&S, finding some resistance at the 1.67 zone. To date - Tech earnings trumps the bonds rise. The Russell continues to put up false starts out of it's wedge.
Volatility in the notes (10Y @ 1.66) showed-up as a pause day for growth tech. With earnings one week away, a melt-up would benefit from resistance in the bonds.
The 10 Year, NQ1!, RTY1! and the rotation between large cap tech and smaller cap names is on watch for October. Working on understanding the 10Y as a clue for growth downside, small cap upside.
Technical Analysis As you can see in the chart, every red square is showing a consolidation period, followed by a strong rally. Today's action is showing strength as we are seeing a potential breakout, outside the 1-month consolidation period. Trade setup The light-blue arrows are potential measured moves. However, I would follow the 5sma or 10sma, as a...
The 10 Year saw a right shoulder form as NAS completed an inverse as short covered seemed to fuel the day after the gap-up open. Two scenarios remain in play, all keyed off the 10 year completing the H&S fueling a push up in the NAS. A rejection of the 10 - year H&S neckline, due to supply and demand, in the bond markets.
Bonds have almost completely retraced June's decline. They have faced resistance, however at almost all of the Fibonacci levels we have spelled out earlier. The Kovach Momentum Indicators have turned positive, validating this uptrend. There is one more vacuum zone to cross, which will likely provide great resistance, as this is the anchor of our Fibonacci...
If you follow my work, I have said that stocks will continue to move higher because there is nowhere to go for yield. Central banks have suppressed interest rates where equities are the only place to go. The time to sell stocks will be when interest rates SPIKE. Likely in the double digits. This chart of the ten year US yield, is very important as the 10 year...