Historically, in the absence of QE (Quantitative Easing), the US10Y (US 10 Year Treasury Bon) exceeds inflation. This means that bond yields must rise to exceed inflation for non-Federal Reserve buyers to enter the market place. Non-Government buyers will not buy a bond below inflation as their real returns would be negative. A SIGNIFICANT...
Part 1 Hello everyone! It's been a few weeks since my last update on the markets, and this one is going to be a very special one. Will go through many different aspects of most major markets, by using both technical and fundamental analysis. It will be an in-depth analysis with lots of charts of several instruments, that have the potential to give us a clear...
TLT ETF seems to be in a good place to trade higher. Fundamentals back the technicals which is a really sweet spot for this particular ETF with the 20yr TB's. Expect a rise out of it over the coming weeks back to the previous highs and beyond but only look to "hodl" should price provide us with a bull breakout of the AP which is the previous weekly highs....
Relative Momentum of Various Asset Classes SPY - Equities GLD - Precious Metals VNQ - Real Estate TLT - Long Term Treasuries JNK - High Yield Corp Bonds SHY - Short Term Treasuries MUB - Municipal Bonds BTCUSD - Crypto-Currencies DBC - Commodities
a huge momentum breaks channel with force. we 75% of probability we will see a bullish trend after pull back
-Price has shown evidence of buyers by breaking downward trend lines, removing opposing pivot point zones, quality DBR created. -Strong imbalance of buyers stepped in so I'm looking at them potentially stepping in again.
I think the ZB will reach 166' but don't enter with too many contracts good luck guys
We now have a good signal here indicating bonds can rally substantially in the coming weeks. I've bot a bull call spread to capture the upside here, expiring on Dec 10th, for the March contract. It allows me to fine tune risk and maximize gains if the trade works in a way that an outright futures long position wouldn't. If you can, join on Monday on dips, if...
Currently, based on MY STRATEGY we have a strong wick and volume, that's a pretty strong indication that SSE COMPOSITE PROBABLY WILL GO DOWN next week 65% of probability
we have a pullback situation this is the time to sell. we have a 65% of probability
Trying to reach this level and we have 75% of probability will break the resistance and we will see highiest prix
we have an opportunity here buy with force we have a peak of volume and huge momentum
the dollar so far is normal but should not cross this support if it breaks with the volume we will see a huge shot
In my most novice opinion, the correlation of the the yield to SPY correlation has been off a bit due to a mix of tax sell offs and maybe some Omicron fear. However, although we are in a area in opinion, we should still be careful and watch how the correlation moves as we close out the end of 2021 and as we head into next year. GDP growth is slow but has been...
US 10 years treasury Yield touched it's weekly trend line and bounce, and if bearish trend will continue it's a sign of recession.
I noticed the treasury bond yields are almost identical to the bitcoin/usd chart for 2020 and 2021 ever since the black swan event in March '20, but not in any other period prior to this cycle. Anyone have any insight into why this is and why this wasn't before?
Hello traders! Today we will talk about 10Y US Notes and its negative correlation with USDJPY. 10Y US Treasury yields keeps pointing lower, as we see a bearish triangle formation within wave 4 correction that can send the price even lower for wave 5. If that's the case, then respecting correlations, USDJPY can see more gains for wave 5, as we also see a bullish...
Who sets interest rates? Is it the central banks... or is it the free market? Given that the FED's dovish approach clashes directly with this forecast, it would suggest that it is the latter. My opinion: the FED isn't a leader, but a follower of the worst kind. Consistently making mistakes at the tops and bottoms of markets. If the market pushes rates higher for...