Wall Street Investment banks are predicting various prices for the S&P 500 close at the end of 2024. But if the current 1-year Treasury Bill Yield is the same as the estimates then why bother buying the S&P 500? It would be safer buying bills and you may get an equal return.
This piece of analysis will look at:
Historical accuracy of Wall Street Banks S&P 500...
Hello Traders!
The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish...
20-YEAR AMERICAN TREASURY BONDS: SHARK detected.
We are in a potential turnaround zone.
The EMA.200 and EMA.50 are possible targets, as well as the red PRZ above.
To watch, as well as the ICHIMOKU / Bollinger / Fibonacci Levels
The yield curve has inverted to the most extreme degree ever, which is a warning that a recession is coming. In this video, I analyze the charts for the AMEX:SPY S&P 500, NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia, NASDAQ:AAPL Apple, and the yield curve on U.S. Treasurys to see what they're telling us about future price action.
In the video, I mention that the bull rally following...
TBT is a UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF.
This Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the Daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.
1. Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly.
2. Wait, and wait again, for the pattern to develop.
3. Be patient...
Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction.
Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining.
The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline.
This will have major...
Looking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows.
It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A...
Traders,
In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions.
However, I spotted something sus on the U.S....
TLDR:
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield and the closely correlated USD/JPY pair can be determinants or signals of market risk. With both breaking their three decade long trends, you have to wonder is a major secular shift upon us.
The USD/JPY currency pair has traditionally had a close correlation with U.S. Treasuries.
The pair shows how many yen are required to buy...
US 10-year bond yields have been trending lower since Oct 2022 after touching high around 4.250%. The rise in the 10-year yield from the past two weeks saw yields stop just short of the blue 61.8% Fibo level of 3.885%. Yields are currently testing the 200-day MA rate of 3.649% and a break below will allow bonds to rally further towards the 50-day MA rate of 5.525%...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change.
Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again.
Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
As you may already know, the US 10-Year Treasury is a government bond that benchmarks long-term interest rates. Investors often turn to this instrument as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. In contrast, gold has long been considered a store of value and a hedge against inflation. It is highly sought after in times of economic...
On this 4H Chart TMF has rallied in the past week about 9% as the reports of the impetus of
inflation has diminished. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines are staying above the histogram
which has not converted from negative to positive. The dual time frame RSI showing
low 1 hour TF in blue and daily TF in black has the lower crossing over the higher both
at...
TBT is going to take another swing now that interest rates are going up.
Fundamentally, Treasuries and other bonds will go down on their real face value
because their yield is lower than the new going rate. Inverse EFTs like TBT
will go up when Treasuries go down.
On the w Chart chart, price is sitting above the POC line of the volume profile
where there...
This is nothing new, really. People who have been in markets long enough know that when short term bond yields (3 month and 2 year, for example) come up to meet and invert to a higher yield than longer term bonds (like the 10 year, 30 year etc) that it often precedes a large market sell off as well as a recession that affects most everyone, not just stock...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the top of the (blue) Channel Down pattern, which was our bullish target on our last trade ten days ago (see chart below):
Despite not having hit it yet, we decide to close this long trade as we see more value in starting a sell-near-highs approach now. There is also a diverging Channel Down (dotted...
On the daily chart- I have plotted the TLT (Long Bond Leveraged) ETF vs the TBT (Short
Inverse) as a ratio. The ratio is running on a cycle between high and low. On the chart for
reference is a Hull Moving Average of 20 days. A more frequency cyling could be achieved
with a paid Tradingview subscription and a charting time frame of 2 or 4 hours.
For...
