I'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the...
Looking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows.
It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A...
TLT is approaching a technical double top area as the Feb. 1st FOMC meeting looms. Fed futures are currently pricing in a 475-500 bps terminal rate, however some fed speakers over the days have indicated a desire to exceed 500 bps this year. Market thus far hasn't bought that narrative and expects the Fed will be forced to pivot later this year due to...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change.
Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again.
Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 5 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price has started rising since the December 07 Low, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). So far...
The US02Y has just completed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a technical formation found on tops. The very same formation was last seen in October - December 2018 and caused a massive long-term drop on the US02Y. Check also the identical 1D RSI sequences leading to the top with Channel Down patterns.
The US02Y peak was translated into a fall on...
The US10Y is approaching the Higher Lows support of the 2022 bullish trend. Holding it can make the price rebound back to the 1D MA50 (blue line) and the dashed line of its growth zone at least.
A break below it and in particular the 1D MA200 (orange line) can turn the trend bearish long term to the 1W MA100 (red line).
The 1D RSI is on its (oversold) Support...
looking at short term bonds over the next 3-4yrs and take the monthly dividend. From the 4th Elliott wave to the 5th, then I'll likely convert over to the 20yr treasury in 2years to try to buy the D leg of the cypher pattern on the 20yr. see charts. In this chart, notice how the price action retrace back to the 3rd wave, this movement was a very big bearish cypher...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield formed Lower Highs on its 1D RSI while the price action has been trading on Higher Highs. This is a major Bearish Divergence that technically calls for a price reversal to the downside.
What's even more interesting is that every time the same RSI Bearish Divergence has been formed in the past 12 months, the US10Y always...
the market seems to go down after the break out so I recommend that you sell the treasury bonds, the united stats have no choice but to raise interest rates
Dear investor, My idea of going against ZB on the 20th of July is to have a big win, since then the 10-year treasury bund is down more than 11% with 520 pips in the pocket.
CBOT: Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! )
Last Friday, U.S. stocks plunged again as soaring interest rates and FX market turmoil fueled investor fears of a global recession.
The Dow fell below 30,000 and closed at 29,590, down 486 or -1.6%. S&P 500 broke through 3700 and settled at 3,697, down 1.72%. Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 200 points and closed at...
ZB formed an obvious reversal pattern (Head and Shoulders) in the last months, taking the pattern's MA 209 As a Neckline. the break of it kept moving the price lower. Breaking the support area you'd probably take the price to lower until achieving the potential target which is equal to the distance between the Head and the Neckline.
Dear investors,
According to my technical and chart analysis of ZN1!, the chart shows a signal of a downtrend continuation.
contact me on trading view chat for more details & the strategy I use to select my investments.
10 year notes broke out of the bullish wedge as expected.
Bulls have a setup for a large five wave up rally in T-notes (meaning decline in 10 year yield)
We should all be aware that USA 10yr treasuries pumping up is bad news for all risk assets.
And mix that with DXY pumping and we get bear markets like most of 2022.
But I remain steadfast that the W4 isn't completed yet, the 382 is around 2.4% & ema 100 is
around 2.24% on 3D so this is likely the B wave of the ABC down of the minor 4th and should finish in...
Monthly chart looks like we are topping on the US10Y. Weekly chart tells a different story. I believe the Weekly US10Y is telling us that fed is going to have to be more hawkish with interest rates on 21st September. We will see if i am right.
Hello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion,...
