The 10y-2y bond yields are important because it is the long-short of market expectations; that is, how people view the near-term market vs. their perceived evolution of the market (that also anticipates the FOMC's likely reaction. It's several signals in one). The 10y2ys (blue) is the 10 year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.96%) Minus the 2-Year Treasury...
We now have a good signal here indicating bonds can rally substantially in the coming weeks. I've bot a bull call spread to capture the upside here, expiring on Dec 10th, for the March contract.
It allows me to fine tune risk and maximize gains if the trade works in a way that an outright futures long position wouldn't. If you can, join on Monday on dips, if...
I noticed the treasury bond yields are almost identical to the bitcoin/usd chart for 2020 and 2021 ever since the black swan event in March '20, but not in any other period prior to this cycle. Anyone have any insight into why this is and why this wasn't before?
Hello traders!
Today we will talk about 10Y US Notes and its negative correlation with USDJPY.
10Y US Treasury yields keeps pointing lower, as we see a bearish triangle formation within wave 4 correction that can send the price even lower for wave 5. If that's the case, then respecting correlations, USDJPY can see more gains for wave 5, as we also see a bullish...
Who sets interest rates? Is it the central banks... or is it the free market?
Given that the FED's dovish approach clashes directly with this forecast, it would suggest that it is the latter.
My opinion: the FED isn't a leader, but a follower of the worst kind. Consistently making mistakes at the tops and bottoms of markets. If the market pushes rates higher for...
If rates do not get blocked by that weekly 200 ema and reject from the 1.64 lvl then I would say we are heading into some serious pain for risk assets with a C wave target of 2.14 basis points. IDK guys but im thinking 1.64 holds and SP500 completes my C wave around 4250. Then back up to 5,000 EOY
Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and other financial firms are advancing along with bond yields. The rate on the 10 year Treasury note is up 1.48%. If you did not know, those higher rates are pulling down shares of tech companies that benefit from lower borrowing costs. All the FAAMG stocks had experienced a red day due to this. When trading...
Lots of volatility for the next eight months on the US 10 year treasury. Overall rates are moving up, but a couple dip opportunities to lock in your borrowers rates, not a financial advisor, just my thoughts.
SNIPER STRATEGY
This magical strategy works like a clock on almost any charts
Although I have to say it can’t predict pullbacks, so I do not suggest this strategy for leverage trading.
It will not give you the whole wave like any other strategy out there but it will give you huge part of the wave.
The best timeframe for this strategy is Daily, Weekly and Monthly...
Markets in Asia and especially in Europe started September strongly after higher-than-expected inflation in the eurozone and very optimistic comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who said that the eurozone economy is growing faster than the ECB expected, hinting at an upward revision of the central bank's growth forecast. On the downside, German retail...
The US10Y has confirmed the shift from bullish to long-term bearish as last week it broke below the Higher Lows Zone that has been holding since the August 07, 2020 bottom. The bounce however on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line on the left chart) is something to keep an eye on, but for the moment that is viewed as a Lower Lows rebound within a Channel Down (right...
Good day guys! This is just an update in regards to the position that my team and I are currently holding. In my previous chart, I highlighted how the technicals would be looking to create a rising wedge before continuing to the downside. As of today, the markets are revealing just that. With over 1200 pips and counting, we are still looking for the markets to...
Hello Trader I found Ascending Channel in 1 hrs Time frame and also it fails to break its Resistance level there is a good opportunity for selling if you find my analysis is helpful for you please follow. Thank You
Hello traders and investors!
Today we will talk about TLT treasury bond in which we see very interesting development.
We are observing a bigger A-B-C correction, where a five-wave decline within wave C looks to be unfinished. Currently we are tracking a three-wave A-B-C correction within wave 4) that can stop at the strong trendline connected from the highs, so...
Tightening monetary policies are coming. Throughout history, bond yields have been a clear telltale sign of rising interest rates. Throughout the last couple of months you can see bond yields have risen quite sharply.
There is no alarm to be raised just yet on the health of the market, just an early indicator that Feds will start tightening monetary policies. I...
Technical Analysis
As you can see in the chart, every red square is showing a consolidation period, followed by a strong rally.
Today's action is showing strength as we are seeing a potential breakout, outside the 1-month consolidation period.
Trade setup
The light-blue arrows are potential measured moves. However, I would follow the 5sma or 10sma, as a...
TLT has been walking up this trendline since about mid March but watch out, the pink line is a well established longterm trend that could prove to be major resistance. If that trendline holds we could see a reversal in bonds which would cause a rise in rates.
