The 10y-2y bond yields are important because it is the long-short of market expectations; that is, how people view the near-term market vs. their perceived evolution of the market (that also anticipates the FOMC's likely reaction. It's several signals in one). The 10y2ys (blue) is the 10 year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.96%) Minus the 2-Year Treasury...
Relative Momentum of Various Asset Classes
SPY - Equities
GLD - Precious Metals
VNQ - Real Estate
TLT - Long Term Treasuries
JNK - High Yield Corp Bonds
SHY - Short Term Treasuries
MUB - Municipal Bonds
BTCUSD - Crypto-Currencies
DBC - Commodities
-Price has shown evidence of buyers by breaking downward trend lines, removing opposing pivot point zones, quality DBR created.
-Strong imbalance of buyers stepped in so I'm looking at them potentially stepping in again.
In my most novice opinion, the correlation of the the yield to SPY correlation has been off a bit due to a mix of tax sell offs and maybe some Omicron fear. However, although we are in a area in opinion, we should still be careful and watch how the correlation moves as we close out the end of 2021 and as we head into next year. GDP growth is slow but has been...
I noticed the treasury bond yields are almost identical to the bitcoin/usd chart for 2020 and 2021 ever since the black swan event in March '20, but not in any other period prior to this cycle. Anyone have any insight into why this is and why this wasn't before?
We now have a good signal here indicating bonds can rally substantially in the coming weeks. I've bot a bull call spread to capture the upside here, expiring on Dec 10th, for the March contract.
It allows me to fine tune risk and maximize gains if the trade works in a way that an outright futures long position wouldn't. If you can, join on Monday on dips, if...
Today we will talk about 10Y US Notes and its negative correlation with USDJPY.
10Y US Treasury yields keeps pointing lower, as we see a bearish triangle formation within wave 4 correction that can send the price even lower for wave 5. If that's the case, then respecting correlations, USDJPY can see more gains for wave 5, as we also see a bullish...
Who sets interest rates? Is it the central banks... or is it the free market?
Given that the FED's dovish approach clashes directly with this forecast, it would suggest that it is the latter.
My opinion: the FED isn't a leader, but a follower of the worst kind. Consistently making mistakes at the tops and bottoms of markets. If the market pushes rates higher for...
If rates do not get blocked by that weekly 200 ema and reject from the 1.64 lvl then I would say we are heading into some serious pain for risk assets with a C wave target of 2.14 basis points. IDK guys but im thinking 1.64 holds and SP500 completes my C wave around 4250. Then back up to 5,000 EOY
Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and other financial firms are advancing along with bond yields. The rate on the 10 year Treasury note is up 1.48%. If you did not know, those higher rates are pulling down shares of tech companies that benefit from lower borrowing costs. All the FAAMG stocks had experienced a red day due to this. When trading...