Hello Traders, After the huge sell off last week I expect more jpy strength going into this week. Place a sell stop order and don't risk more than 1%. Have a great week! Vitez
Good morning, folks, and happy Friday! Welcome to Opex; let's get right into our analysis. It was another shakey overnight session with Asian stocks leading global futures lower after China said it would pass a strict privacy law by Nov 1st, directly affecting tech and ecommerce companies and their collection and use of certain types of data from their customers....
Inflation prints coming in hot(short term) because of a stalled reopening. Rumors of vaccine FDA approval in the next week. A large infrastructure package in the works, putting more money into the system sparking inflation fears.
Good morning, folks! It was a relatively quiet overnight session with futures drifting sideways and trading essentially flat as we approach the open. As of 8:45AM the Dow is down -0.20% to 35,187, the S&P is down -0.11% to 4,438.75, the Russell is up 0.11% to 2,176.90, and the Nasdaq is down -0.3% to 14,989.75. Traders will be keeping a close eye on today's Fed...
Idea for US10Y: Just a reminder where we are: Now: GLHF - DPT
Idea for Currencies/Macro: - Contrary to popular belief, since 2008, the dollar RISES with Fed Balance Sheet expansion. - There is currently a large divergence which I speculate to close with the dollar rising. Either the Fed Balance Sheet can be reduced, or the dollar will rise... Obviously the balance sheet will not be reduced for a long time, if ever. Why is...
Idea for 10Y Treasury Bond Yields: I speculate that yields cannot and will not rise significantly until the equity bubble pops. I think that it will start a wave reaching 0.7 this month. Why is that? - There is almost $300 trillion in private sector debt globally. - Companies used margin debt for share buybacks to boost EPS, creating the illusion of economic...
Hello Traders! These are the take profit areas for the dollar. Have a great day! Vitez
U.S. Treasury yields rose last Friday after a strong jobs report that was in line with goals the Federal Reserve has set to start unwinding stimulus. The most liquid 10-year Treasuries are trading at 1.32% yield, up from 1.24% on Last Friday.
Hello Traders! After last weeks NFP expect more upside for the us dollar against the Japanese yen as BoJ keeps rates low. Have a great week! Vitez
Forecast for Macro: - Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested. - Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations: - 2x ATR spike in US02Y: - The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y. - Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish: - However, this will...
OANDA:XAUUSD In the last session on Friday, we saw a massive Sell Off in Gold due to the NFP number over the estimates. But the price failed to breakout the IMPORTANT LEVEL 1760, and closed above it. THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT SIGNAL ! In the graph you can see that in this level we got a lot of Support for GOLD: 1)We got the previous Lower Bottom of July ...
The US10Y is about to hit the 1D MA200 again (orange trend-line) where last time failed to convincingly close a candle above it and eventually got rejected. That also happened to be on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a symmetrical level as it previously was a Support (July 08) turned into Resistance. There is also a potential 1D Death Cross (when...
(Observation at this point only)
Bonds all across the world, across all different spectrums (from gov bonds to junk bonds) have been rising (their yields falling). This is a signal that there are deflationary pressures and that people are searching for yield in an environment with few opportunities. There are other reasons too, but overall this isn't the best signal. Clearly big corporations and...
Good morning, folks! As of 8:45AM on Wednesday morning, US Futures are seeing some light weakness with the Dow down -0.33% to 35,003, the S%P down -0.27% to 4,411, the Nasdaq down -0.10% to 15,046, the the Russell down -0.82% to 2,202.80. The ADP Employment Change came in moments ago at 330k vs the 650k expected, and the weak print has erased some of the overnight...
Good morning, folks! For those of you in Canada, I hope everyone had a great holiday to start the week. Let's get right into today's analysis. After rolling sell programs yesterday to kick-off the month of August, US Futures are drifting higher on Tuesday with the Dow up 0.25% to 34,808, the S&P up 0.22% to 4,389.50, the Russell up 0.46% to 2,221.10, and the...