DarkPoolTrading

Macro - Reading The Curve

Forecast for Macro:
- Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested.
- Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations:

- 2x ATR spike in US02Y:
- The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y .

- Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish:

- However, this will be followed by a steepener, respecting the Falling Wedge Breakout, as the Fed implements monetary policies to control Deflation, creating a Stagflation environment.

- US30Y , this is bearish and deflationary:

- USOIL , deflationary. The US economy depends on Oil:

- US Manufacturing Employment Index, looks to be at the top of the range, and on a decline:

- Capital goods are the heart of every economy. Without manufacturing employment, no capital goods. No capital goods, no innovation.

- CN30Y , also bearish and deflationary:

- China's Credit Impulse, and consequently - global credit impulse turns negative.
- No more credit flows means no more liquidity to flow into risk assets.

- M2V declining, if the economy was booming and growing, money velocity should be increasing:

- Business destruction cannot be inflationary. Thriving tech businesses lead the recovery, but Tech is inherently deflationary.
- Reading the curve will be critical to see the macro turns coming!

GLHF
- DPT
Trade active: I said it will drop to 0.2-0.3, watching for continued decline: