Possible reversal spotted on the 4H time frame. Bond yields may rise to 1.6%. TVC:US10Y
Hello Traders! Fundamentally yields lower indicating weakness in the pair. Levels labelled. Have a great day! Vitez
US Markets are experiencing a technical bounce on Monday after last weeks Bullard spook/Fed hawkishness on Wednesday. EURUSD looks poised to test the 50DMA as early as today, but according to polarity principle, we should see a rejection if we do, and a continuation of the recent downtrend (toward the 200DMA around 1.157). At the same time, I expect the 50DMA on...
US Futures are rebounding modestly on Monday morning after last weeks sell off - the S&P is rallying around 0.50% to test the 50DMA around 4,176.58 (likely as resistance), the Dow is seeing support at the 100DMA at 33,011 and is up around 0.71% on the day, the Russell is retesting the 50DMA around 2,250, and the Nasdaq is floating somewhere in orbit around 14,072...
Hi guys, Crazy week in the precious metals market and the FED crashed the whole market into oblivion. Luckily we were on the right side this time as a bearish correction was more than likely, however I did not expect a move below 1800. We closed the week a couple dollars below the 61.8 fibo support line at 1768, so this is concerning (it might just be a SL-hunt...
See attached analysis.
A perfect Channel Down has been formed for the US10Y on the 1D time-frame. The 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 have already been broken. The 1D MA150 (yellow trend-line) is exactly within the Higher Lows Zone from the very bottom of August 2020. Will the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) get tested right on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level? ** Please support this idea...
Idea for US30Y: - Bond yields dropping rapidly. - Bonds are being bought up for 1 of 2 reasons: (1) Investors are afraid and would rather hold negative yielding bonds than other risk assets. (2) We are experiencing deflation, despite the media blaring inflation. Reminder: GLHF - DPT
Idea for Macro: - Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range. - Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range. - Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend. - Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level. - PC ratio reaching low levels...
FB is channeling up nicely and showing potential upside to 360 where the upper band of the channel is sitting as of today, which would imply a new ATH, of course. We have downside to around 300 where we should see notable support. If we lose 300, we still have channel support currently sitting around 285. This is a pretty persistent trend, so I don't expect much...
AMZN is approaching the upper band of it's 11 month range. I don't expect a breakout to new ATH's, but certainly we may see a retest of the ATH around 3,550 as early as this week (unless the Fed disappoints markets this afternoon by hiking the IOER or RRP/even mentioning tapering bond purchases), followed by a potential retest of the lower band around 2,950.
AAPL is in the process of breaking through it's MA resistances after seeing support at the lower band of the wedge. We have potential upside to around 138 at the upper band, and trendline support just below the MA's around 126. The RSI is sitting around 60 at the moment, so we still have room to run on the daily time frame implying a higher probability of further...
The US10Y started trending up in February. This adversely affected the NAS100 as growth stocks started to feel the pinch of higher discount rates. The 10-Yr reached a high of around 1.75% at the end of March and then began to pull back (red vertical). This supported the NAS100 and growth stocks in general at first, but yields started to drift and the NAS100...
This is a very complex topic but I will try to keep it as simple as possible. This whole story began when the US government printed money to help the economy going and the reserve bank infused money into the market by buying back bonds. These actions did help for a while and the stock market recovered from March 2020 mini-crash, but that printed money caused the...
I believe there will be 1 last rally in the equities market, specifically the NASDAQ and S&P before the crash. I see yields returning to 1 before shooting again to 2.
I keep reading on Trading View that US Ten Year yields are going to fall to 1.2% and this means Bitcoin is going to go back up. Take a look at the chart - there is little correlation between US 10 year yield rates and the price of Bitcoin. A 50% correlation at best and even if this was higher, correlation doesn't imply causation. Just because Bitcoin has...