The US Dollar Index (DXY) has gotten off to a rip-roaring start to 2024. Up more than 2% on the year, the greenback’s ascent comes after significant declines over the final handful of months in 2023. That is usually a headwind for equities, particularly shares of companies domiciled overseas. Not surprisingly, we’ve seen many foreign index funds suffer relative to...
Perhaps the most important macro driver for stock prices in the last year and a half has been the US Dollar Index. The DXY has ranged between the upper 90s and about 107 since the third quarter of 2022. When the greenback has been on the rise, equities have generally been weak. A softer dollar has led to a period of stock market strength. Of course, ebbs in the...
The last time World Stock Market EX US Was August 2007. Long term previous highs like this are always points of interest for a potential reversal.
Vanguard FTSE All World-Ex US ETF - Short Idea based on Bearish Harmonic.
Realty != Belief The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually. Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup. Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop. A wise Bera once said: Resistance is infinite and unbounded. When a level is broken, there will always be more...
AMEX:SPY TVC:DXY AMEX:EFA The opportunity presented by a falling dollar: These are simple Yearly Candles. The chart depicts how the falling dollar can provide outperformance in foreign equities vs domestic equities. The top chart is simply a chart of the dollar index. The middle chart is EFA vs SPY. The bottom chart is that of the EFA. Take notice as the...
Again I repeat, trades take time to develop. VEU is yet another one of my examples that seeing key areass before everyone else, does not mean you will get paid tomorrow. It means you will be paid when everyone else sees it too. Which is the point of good analysis.
VT is World ETF & VEU is EX-US. Since 2008 With VT has greatly outperformed up 100% while VEU (EX-US) is only up 19%. Clearly, large excessive deficits and QE have flowed into the US since 2011. Now we are seeing 2 possible bearish structures. VT has a lower high possible M pattern, while VEU has a Head and shoulders pattern. This week will be important to see...
Japan relative the rest of the world (excluding the United States) is eyeing a new all-time relative high..
Trade war disputes and market outperformance US vs rest World v2 Trade war disputes and market outperformance US vs rest World version 2 - some minor consolidation for seen it better, the world gdp growth outperforms usa gdp growth when us trade war disputes are been resolved, as this historic chart suggest ... data from fred research.
Taking a look at risk trends, not much has changed in terms of standings. However, lack of conviction in the equity markets is very high right now. Many of the bears from the last retest of the 2800$ floor from the last 2 months are gone, wiped out with every consecutively green daily candle. However, the most insecure traders right now are the bulls, constantly...
SP:SPX TVC:SHCOMP AMEX:VEU TVC:SX5E AMEX:VEU 1, Vertical lines: Thin Orange is Trump wins election. Thick Orange is start of Trump presidency 2. Chart Lines: White is USA stock market, S&P500 Blue is the European “Dow Jones”, Euro Stoxx 50 Orange is the market cap weighted index of the entire planet’s stock markets (the 44 countries with capital...
SPX a bit stretched overall, top of the channel, also SPX more stretched versus Germany...