As you can see the "First sign of deep shit trouble" indicator is moving into the alarming area. The chart is only marginally changed from the first one (link below). But the VIX now NOT long anymore, and not yet short. Neutral with potential, I would say.
As we have foreseen in the previous studies, the market is acknowledging the end of FED's QE3 program. There is still cheap money in the market i.e low interest rate, but as we have foreseen, ECB's TLTRO and ABS is not profiting to US market contrary to QE3 which has benefited to everybody including the European market. The correction process before SPX starts to...
With the end of FED's QE3, market are gaining more and more volatility. This does not mean that market will crash, but there will be more heavy movement, and the swing frequency will be bigger. FED's QE was inhibiting the market, that is why at the highest level of QE3, VIX was as low as 10... There is also more uncertainties in the market, baring in mind the...
Volatility is increasing and it is good for swing traders. It is also good to see that the market is coming back to a normal stance, where Central banks are less intervening, or that there intervention is not effective anymore, because at the end of the day, for those who believe like me in liberal economy, you should really do let buyers and sellers fixing the...
I've discussed VIX and VXX before. A base seems to be in. As long as the blue trend line holds, there is no reason not to think this will go higher. Perfect spot to go long. The downside is so minimum.
On a purely chartist approach, VIX is about the make a double bottom, which is that case would make 17.35 the neck line and after a pull back over 17.35 toward 20+ This has to be confirmed of course. On the other hand, with the tappering the end of FED's QE3, there may much more volatility in the market because traders will be on there own..... Let's wait and see
VIX is turning its trend to a long position. The upside of VIX is not a technical correction but rather an initial sign of a trend on the upside. Generaly when DOWI is UP VIX is down and when VIX is up DOWI is down. whereas when both of them are on the upside, it is a clear sign of a reversal. Therefore one can estimate that DOWI will go on the upside first...
The Stock Exchanges are rather overperforming. The economic datas are not that good, but the market is expecting ECB President Draghi to release fresh money in the market. But there may be a reason to release the money in the market and thus this would only be possible when the market go to a severe correction otherwise, tax payer would not understand the reason...
When trading Indexes, it is always good to have a look on the volatility index and with Ichimoku, it is clear that the upside movement is very near. The indicators such as STOCH or RSI show that we are either at oversold level like STOCH or about to reach it with RSI. The Kumo Cloud shows a clear future turn in the trend. It means that when VIX is up, indexes...
This August is critical. IF VIX break out + SPY breaks down, the long waited correction may finally happen. Dashed blue lines are long term supports. So watch the thick pink lines.
Just a bloop until know, but keep it on your radars... VIX super low. Stuff is brewing but nothing more... Do not front run deep shit trouble.
Bonds appeared to break out of a flag consolidation pattern today in the TLT Bond ETF. If this fund can close over 115.50 there is upside range to 117.50 and then ~119 as next target. This seems to be coinciding with US Dollar chart firming up as well as the VIX index closing over the key 14 level. This is a key chart to watch over the coming days and weeks.
Based on this pattern triggering on a move over ~21.60 you could expect a measured move to ~22 before hitting resistance. The timing of this breakout seems to be coinciding with market topping action which further strengthens the likelihood of this chart having predictive utility. This chart taken together with today's breakout in Treasuries (TLT) and over 30%...
RSI divergence and bullish wedge suggest a short term breakout is likely for 20%+ gain.
1. I measured the distance off the Ichimoku Cloud, just before markets crashed in 2000 & 2008. We are definitely way too above the cloud support right now. 2. Assessing the data after 1994, the JMA2 moving average is currently in the longest uptrend streak ever, which has been running for 729 days. The uptrend is noted by the white line on the candles, and black...
MArket was too over confident. But if you keep an ear to CB's managers ie Draghi, Yellen and other, world economy is in a good path, and even if it is not, we will ease the monetary situation and continue to provide liquidity. But because of the correction the market is facing, VIX may move upside in order to hedge the short position on Indexes. On on purely...