Two Stock Market Crashes explained in one chart(ELLIOTT)The first is the Dot-Com Bubble that happened in Early 2000. This was the end of Wave 1(Black) and a retest was on the horizon. The market corrected with a zigzag marked in Red late in March 2000. What followed was a sharp drop Wave A(Red), B correction, and a 5 Wave move to complete Wave C of the zigzag. The 5 Wave move to Red Wave C is supported by Math as it retests at exactly at the 423% of the Fibonacci and 161.8% of Red Wave A on a Monthly time frame.
The second Stock Market Crash is the Financial Crisis of 2008 which by the way is the largest Stock Market Crash in the last 80 yrs. Historically, it is only second to the Great Depression of 1929. Can it be explained in terms of Elliott Wave? Yes. It was part of Wave 5 after Green Wave C ended. In fact, from Blue Wave 4/C there is a clear 5 wave move with a zigzag as its first correction and a flat as its second. The Financial Crisis is Wave 5 after the mentioned second flat but is called a Stock Market Crash!!
All this is avoidable.
Wave Analysis
Bitcoin and Elliott Wave Principles This is a good example showing how Bitcoin adheres to Elliott Wave Rules, as does everything in the Market. As stated other publications, the Elliott Wave Theory is more than just a Theory but how the market works. Bitcoin won't always buy, there will be ups and downs. Timing is key. If there is an over-investment just before the top of Wave B, ''Buy The Dip'', this would lead to unimaginable losses. This is what people call ''Stock Market Crash''. To Elliott Wave Theorists, this is a simple Wave 4.
3 Best Entry Points For Swing Trading (Forex, Gold)
What is the best entry point for swing trading?
You will learn 3 safest places/zones to buy or sell the market from, best swing trading time frame, and the most accurate swing trading setups.
Best Entry 1
Swing Trading After a Confirmed Trend Reversal
It can be a bearish trend violation and a start of a new bullish trend.
Look at a price action on WTI Crude Oil on a daily.
The market violated a bearish trend and started to trade in a new bullish trend, confirming the reversal.
In such a case, your best entry will be the closest daily support.
Alternatively, it can be a bullish trend violation and an initiation of a new bearish trend.
USDCAD was in an uptrend, steadily growing within a parallel channel.
Its violation confirmed the change of sentiment and start of a downtrend.
In this situation, your safest entries will be from the closest daily resistance.
Best Entry 2
Swing Trading with the Trend After Pullback
In a bullish trend, you should wait for
a completion of a bullish movement,
wait for a pullback
swing buy the market after it completes.
AUDCAD is in a rising trend.
A pullback tends to complete on a key support.
That will be your zone for buying.
Otherwise, in a bearish trend, you should let the price:
finish a bearish impulse
start a correctional movement
sell the market after the correction ends.
USDCHF was in downturn and updated the low. A local bullish movement started then.
It usually completes after a test of a key resistance. That will be the area where you should look for swing selling.
Best Entry 3
Swing Trading After Key Level Breakout
Bearish violation of a key daily support is a perfect signal to sell.
It is an important sign of strength of the sellers and a strong indication that the price will continue falling.
NZDUSD broke and closed below a key daily support cluster. After a breakout, it turns into a potentially strong resistance.
For us, the best entry is a retest of a broken structure.
Bullish breakout of a key daily resistance is a reliable signal to buy.
After a violation of a horizontal resistance, it became a support on USDCHF Forex pair on a daily.
Your perfect entry for swing buying is its retest .
The entry zones that we discussed will provide the safest trading opportunities.
Learn to combine that with your trading strategy, it will help you to dramatically increase the profitability of your swing trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
An Easy Method for Identifying Wave and Cycle Endings! :)Hello, you don’t need to discover anything else to make money in this market. Simply by identifying peaks and valleys at the same level, which align in terms of numbers, degrees, and angles, you can easily earn a lot of money. Don’t get caught up in vague and useless information, my friends. Much respect, Ehsan :)
The Beauty of Elliott Wave.Wave 3 corrects in a Flat formation that is exactly 100% of Green Wave A. Upon completion, there is beautiful retest and a big move downwards to complete Blue Wave C and hence Wave 4 of the Flat. Wave 4 also corrects at 50% of the Red Wave 3. This whole Flat occurs between 161.8% and 261.8% of the main Wave. This is a weekly time frame and these are some massive moves showing that the market obeys Elliott Wave Principles at all levels of time.
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: Optimal Options StrikesI. Introduction
Options on futures offer traders a flexible way to participate in market movements while managing risk effectively. The Japanese Yen Futures (6J) market provides deep liquidity, making it a preferred instrument for options traders. In this article, we will explore how to optimize Bull Call Spreads in Yen Futures (6J) by understanding price equivalency and strike selection.
One of the most critical aspects of trading options on futures is recognizing that continuous futures charts and contract-specific charts display different prices. This discrepancy must be accounted for when setting up trade entries and exits. Additionally, strike price selection significantly impacts the reward-to-risk ratio, breakeven price, and probability of profitability.
By identifying key support and resistance levels (UFO), we will define trade setups that likely align with market structure, targeting precise entry and exit points. We will also compare different Bull Call Spread variations to understand how adjusting the strike selection impacts risk and potential reward.
II. Understanding the Japanese Yen Futures Contract
Before diving into the options strategy, it is essential to understand the specifications of the CME-traded Japanese Yen Futures (6J) contract:
Contract Size: Each futures contract represents 12,500,000 Japanese Yen
Tick Size: 0.0000005 USD per JPY (equivalent to $6.25 per tick)
Trading Hours: Nearly 24-hour trading cycle with short maintenance breaks
Margin Requirements: Currently $2,900 (varies through time).
For this article, we focus on December 2025 Yen Futures (6JZ2025). Since the market price displayed on continuous charts (6J1!) differs from contract-specific charts, we need to establish price equivalencies to align our trade analysis.
III. Price Equivalency Between Continuous and Contract-Specific Futures
Futures traders commonly use continuous charts (such as 6J1!) for analysis, but when trading options, it is crucial to reference the specific futures contract month (such as 6JZ2025). Due to roll adjustments and term structure variations, prices differ between these two charts.
In this setup, we identify key UFO-based support and resistance levels and adjust for contract-specific price equivalency:
Support Level Equivalency: 0.0066325 (6J1!) = 0.0068220 (6JZ2025)
Resistance Level Equivalency: 0.0069875 (6J1!) = 0.0072250 (6JZ2025)
These adjusted price levels ensure that the trade is structured accurately within the December 2025 contract, aligning option strikes with meaningful technical levels.
IV. The Bull Call Spread Strategy on Yen Futures
A Bull Call Spread is a vertical options spread strategy used to express a bullish outlook while reducing cost and limiting risk. This strategy involves:
Buying a lower-strike call (gaining upside exposure)
Selling a higher-strike call (reducing cost in exchange for capping maximum profit)
This setup provides a defined risk-reward structure and is particularly useful when targeting predefined resistance levels. Given that we identified 0.0068220 as support and 0.0072250 as resistance, we will structure multiple Bull Call Spreads to compare strike selection impact.
Now that the trade structure is established, let’s explore how different strike selections affect risk, reward, and breakeven prices.
V. Strike Selection and Its Impact on Risk-Reward Ratios
Selecting the appropriate strike prices is crucial when structuring a Bull Call Spread, as it directly affects the breakeven price, maximum risk, and maximum reward. To illustrate this, we compare three different Bull Call Spread variations using December 2025 Yen Futures (6JZ2025).
1. 0.00680/0.00720 Bull Call Spread
Breakeven: 0.006930
Maximum Risk: -0.00013
Maximum Reward: +0.00027
2. 0.00680/0.00750 Bull Call Spread
Breakeven: 0.0069789
Maximum Risk: -0.00018
Maximum Reward: +0.00052
3. 0.00680/0.00700 Bull Call Spread
Breakeven: 0.006879
Maximum Risk: -0.00008
Maximum Reward: +0.00012
Observing these variations, key insights emerge. The 0.00680/0.00750 spread offers the highest potential reward but comes with the highest breakeven and greater risk. Meanwhile, the 0.00680/0.00700 spread minimizes risk but provides a lower profit potential. Strike selection, therefore, becomes a balance between profitability potential and probability of success.
A wider spread (such as 0.00680/0.00750) has a higher reward-to-risk ratio, but it requires the price to move further before generating profits. Conversely, a narrower spread (like 0.00680/0.00700) has a lower breakeven price, increasing the probability of profitability but limiting potential upside.
VI. Trade Plan for a Bull Call Spread
Based on the analysis of strike selection, a balanced trade plan can be structured using the 0.00680/0.00720 Bull Call Spread, which offers a favorable reward-to-risk ratio while maintaining a reasonable breakeven price.
Market Bias: Bullish, expecting a move toward resistance
Selected Strikes: Long 0.00680 call, short 0.00720 call
Breakeven Price: 0.006930
Target Exit Price: 0.0072250
Maximum Risk: -0.00013
Maximum Reward: +0.00027
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.08:1
This setup capitalizes on the previously identified UFO support to define the entry point, while the UFO resistance provides a target for exit. The breakeven price remains at a reasonable level, ensuring a greater probability of the spread moving into profitability.
VII. Risk Management Considerations
While the Bull Call Spread limits risk compared to outright long calls, proper risk management is still necessary. Traders should consider the following:
Using Stop-Loss Orders: If price breaks below the UFO support level at 0.0068220, traders may exit the position early to avoid excessive losses.
Hedging with Puts: If volatility spikes or market sentiment shifts, a put option or put spread can serve as a hedge against adverse movements.
Position Sizing: Adjusting contract size ensures that total exposure remains within acceptable risk limits based on account size.
Time Decay Considerations: Since time decay negatively impacts long call options, traders should monitor the spread's profitability as expiration approaches and adjust positions accordingly.
By implementing these risk management techniques, traders can optimize their Bull Call Spread strategy while mitigating unnecessary exposure.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
HOW TO use the Acceleration Bands HTF indicatorYou can access this indicator HERE:
For details about the indicator, please see the indicator's description.
This idea is about the use of it.
You always want to go with the trend and trade into the direction that "accelerates" according to the indicator.
When the price accelerates, it is more likely to continue than to reverse.
Also, the volatility will be much greater (momentum) to the acceleration direction.
All the explosive moves happen outside of the acceleration bands.
You can go over many charts and see that the indicator methodology is aligned with good trading principles of great traders such as Darvas Box Trading, and Jesse Livermore entries, and also SMC.
How to Trade Ending Diagonal: EURUSDOne of my favorite EW patterns: Ending Diagonal
It usually appears in wave C or 5, we have wave C
It consists of five waves and each of them are three waves
All looks good as wave 5 is over wave 3 and Ending diagonal might be completed
as EWO oscillator already shows Bearish Divergence between wave 3 and 5
This educational post to show trade setup on this pattern
The bottom of wave b in wave 5 is a breakdown trigger (blue) as it means wave 5 is over
Confirmation is on breakdown of wave 4 (orange)
Target is at the start of the Ending Diagonal (green)
Bonus track:
One could consider sell on 61.8% Fib retracement as we see the first impulse down
and now we watch this two-legged pullback.
Bitcoin mining cost and Bitcoin price appreciation RIOT earnings disclosed that 53% decrease in power credits directly affects miners’ operational costs, leading to higher Bitcoin mining costs.
In the broader economic context, this ties into energy market dynamics and inflation control in several ways.
Preventing upward pressure on industrial energy prices.
Power credits or subsidies previously given to miners have kept their costs artificially low, allowing them to consume large amounts of energy without fully bearing the market rate.
By reducing these credits, miners are exposed to real energy prices, discouraging excessive energy consumption and reducing competition for energy resources with industrial sectors (like manufacturing or logistics) that are critical to the economy.
Why it matters
When Bitcoin miners compete with industrial users for power, it can push up energy prices. Since energy is a major input cost for many industries, rising prices can ripple through supply chains, increasing the costs of goods and contributing to inflation.
Aligning with Energy allocation priorities
In many regions, energy regulators aim to ensure that critical industries, those tied to job creation, exports, or essential services, have priority access to affordable energy. Bitcoin mining, often seen as non-essential from a macroeconomic standpoint, might be deprioritized to keep energy-intensive sectors from facing higher costs that could contribute to consumer price inflation.
Market correction & miner attrition
With actual energy costs now directly impacting miners, many less efficient operations (those with older equipment or higher power costs) will struggle to remain profitable and may shut down. This natural market correction helps reduce overall energy consumption by the mining sector, easing pressure on the grid and stabilizing prices for other users.
Survivors :
Only miners with low energy costs, high-efficiency hardware, or renewable energy sources will remain competitive.
The reduction in power credits is a policy lever to discourage energy-intensive activities that don’t directly contribute to broader economic stability. In doing so, it helps control energy costs for industries tied to GDP growth and job creation, ultimately working as an inflation management tool.
For Bitcoin miners, this shift creates a survival-of-the-fittest environment, where only the most efficient operations can withstand real market conditions, while others may exit the market.
As the cost to mine each Bitcoin rises , it establishes a new economic floor for the market. Miners are less willing to sell below their production cost, especially large-scale miners who can influence market liquidity. Historically, when mining costs increase due to factors like halvings, energy price hikes, or network difficulty, Bitcoin tends to gravitate toward or above these higher cost bases over time.
Example: After the 2016 and 2020 halvings, mining costs surged, but Bitcoin’s price followed with significant upward movements in the months that followed, leading to new all-time highs.
How to Count Weekly Waves Using RSI5A valid corrective wave occurs when:
- ABCDE
- ABC (A > C)
Using RSI 5 to count and filter noise: A wave is considered corrective when a reversal candle appears, and the next candle moves in the opposite direction or shows little movement. If the following candle continues in the previous direction and breaks the prior high/low immediately, it is still considered a continuation of the previous wave.
Breakdown Of My Personal Strategy On Dow Jones TutorialI will be giving a breakdown on my own personal strategy on how I trade the Dow Jones Futures. I am writing this post for two reasons. First and foremost, to help people. Secondly, to help myself in better understanding.
The way that I trade is using support and resistance, only I don't use the traditional sense of support and resistance that is taught. I use price levels that all traders have. The four price points of a candle stick. I also use major round numbers of 1000's and 500's.
The Open
The Low
The High
The Close
I start by looking at the monthly. When a new month opens, I.E. February 1st for example, I mark the opening price in Orange.
I use the 2 hour chart to look for buying and selling areas, using key price levels. I look for these key price areas and see how price behaves once they get there.
Low of Month trades
Low of the Week trades
Low of the Day trades
High of Month trades
High of the Week trades
High of the Day trades
Example 1:
The month of February opens at 44,444. I mark this with a horizontal trendline in Orange Level 4. I see price gapping down right into 44,000. A major round number of 1000.
I then drill down to my entry timeframe of the 15 minute to find the buy or sell trigger entry. In this case, I saw the creeping push down into the 1000 level followed by a bull 180 bar. I entered in on the close of that bar. I used a 75 tick stop per ATR and a 200 tick target.
This is an actual trade I took. I recently changed my target strategy. I will explain in a bit.
I use the same concept for the following three timeframes.
The Monthly candle
The Weekly candle
The Daily candle
The Monthly candle:
The Weekly candle:
The Daily candle:
Another example of a trade I took
This creeping layering into a level is one of my favorite ways to get into a trade.
What I am doing now is I will set my stop loss of 75 ticks and I will have no profit target. I will hold the trade until the end of the trading day and close it out before the market closes.
On this particular trade, I closed it out at 44,820 for a 343 tick profit.
The weekly template structure:
Some obvious points but worth repeating. Each Weekly candle has an opening price. Within each weekly candle, there are 5 trading days. Monday-Friday. There is a high and low of the week.
Within each trading day, there is also an open, high and a low. I find that when day trading, only to focus on the specific day itself and to not really worry about "multiple time frame analysis"
All you need is the major key levels I laid out up above.
Here is another trade that I took. I was looking for the Monthly open and 44,500 to be used as resistance for a continuation short trade back through the weekly open.
Of course you can see, I lost on this trade. No strategy is ever guaranteed, and I do routinely take losses. My job as a trader is to preserve my capital and to stay alive.
My money management strategy:
One trade per trading day MAX
If lose, DONE
Close out near end of day if in profits, DONE
75 tick stoploss on ALL day trades. DO NOT TOUCH. Do not move up or down. Sometimes to Break-even but only if trade is seeming to fail (more of an intuition thing)
Risk 0.75%-1.5% per trade
Only make slight adjustments to strategy after every 20-trade sample size.
By limiting my losses to only one trade per day, I can easily recover from a losing day with any winning day. Somedays I will either not see the market well, enter at a poor location or just overall, not be at my best. My statistics show that RARELY do I enter another trade after a losing trade, does that one succeed. This tells me that I am not seeing something that particular day. I will wrap it up and try again another day. Revenge trading does no good but to hurt yourself. I admit I am wrong on the day and come back again.
By limiting myself to one trade per day, I am also cutting down on slippage and commissions. Because of slippage and commissions, trading is NOT a zero-sum game, but in fact a NEGATIVE sum game. Your winners are smaller than they ought to be, and your losses are bigger than ought.
I know that I can have three losing days in a row and be right back to normal after one or two winning days. Therefore, who cares if I take a loss. I need to get through the losing trades to find the big, winning trades.
Tips & Tricks by CandleStyxI was observing Dogecoin on the 1 HR and came up with all these observations and maybe you can learn some new ways to look at things if you can understand my scribbles.
Some clues I noticed:
1. possible cup n handle formation
2. The arrows are all copy pasta same lengths and time
3. Apart of the big breakout arrow which measures the size of the cup from top to bottom.
4. Look at the date ranges numbers
5. See the Fibonacc Golden Pocket has ideal level for a Handle
6. It would also retest the breakout from the ascending green triangle
7. Target of the Cup and Handle pattern is right into the resistance & liquidity and would be the first deep test of its strength
8. Interesting that the breakout is programmed to be exactly nearby the weekly and 2 week candle close
9. Keeping in Mind the Biweekly Bitcoin crossing macd to downside could it be a failing outbreak?
10. Also they say that if the handle comes deeper than 12% it will most likely fail.
11. Conclusion is to observe if we go lower than 12% as that could be a clue if the outbreak could be a trap or not.
12. Grab this Chartlayout and make it yours!
Tell me in the comments what YOU think will happen and explain why.
More updates might follow.
[Strategy] Trend Re-Entry Strategy using a Stoch and Zero Lag MATrend re-entries can be hard. The difficult part is knowing if price will continue to pull back or will it shift back into the original direction.
This is a strategy with some extra notes to help you understand
1. The Original entry
2. The Re-Entry
3. Is my trend ending
For this you'll need two indicators:
The Zero Lag Multi Timeframe Moving Average
and The Stocashi + Caffeine Crush
In the video I show you how to adjust the settings for a 5 minute chart on both indicators.
Long Entry rules:
You have 3 MAs. The longest one is your support and resistance
The other two are your "trading" and "trending" MAs
If price is above your support and resistance, your trading and trending should be right side up.
If price close in between trading and trending, the stocashi should be at a low point.
It needs to arrive at this low point by previous crossing down through its midline.
**If it did not cross down through its midline, there is no entry here**
Once price closes above the trading MA, you should have a rising stocashi from its valid low point.
During this uptrend, each time price pulls back in between the trading and trending MAs, the Stocashi should be at a valid low point.
Re-enter your long trade as long as:
Stocashi made a valid low
Price is closing above the trading MA
Trading MA is above Trending MA
Trending MA is above Support and Resistance MA.
You can reverse all of these instructions for taking short trades.
Potential Market Flip
If you are getting consistent invalid lows on Stocashi while price is in a correct position, this means you are losing your trend, and you should wait for your price to close below the Support and Resistance MA.
At this point your Trading and Trending MAs should be upside down. They do not always have to be BELOW the Support and Resistance MA.
A detailed explanation of parallel price channels and how to use📚 A detailed explanation of parallel price channels and how to use them in technical analysis 📈
Parallel price channels are one of the most important technical analysis tools that help traders identify **trends, entry and exit points, and potential levels of reversal or breakout**.
---
## **🟢 First: What is a parallel price channel?**
A parallel price channel is a **price range within which the price moves regularly**, and is defined by **two parallel lines** that represent **dynamic support and resistance**.
📌 Channels can be:
1️⃣ **Ascending**: When the price is in an upward trend with increasing bottoms and tops.
2️⃣ **Downward**: When the price is in a downward trend with decreasing bottoms and tops.
3️⃣ **Horizontal (Sideways)**: When the price moves sideways between fixed levels.
---
## **🟢 Second: Components of the price channel**
🔹 **The upper limit of the channel (moving resistance)**: Represents a selling area where the price tends to reverse downward when touched.
🔹 **The lower limit of the channel (moving support)**: Represents a buying area where the price tends to rebound upward when touched.
🔹 **The middle line (in some channels)**: Helps identify rebound and balance points within the channel.
---
## **🟢 Third: How to draw a price channel?**
### **✏️ Steps to draw a price channel manually:**
1️⃣ Determine the market direction (upward, downward, sideways).
2️⃣ Draw the main trend line by connecting **two major peaks or bottoms**.
3️⃣ Copy this line and place it **parallel** on the other side of the price to form the channel.
4️⃣ Make sure that the price moves between the two lines logically without a clear breakout.
✍ **Practical example:**
📈 If you have two rising bottoms in an upward trend, you can draw a line that passes through them and then copy it upwards at the peaks, to form an ascending channel.
---
## **🟢 Fourth: How to use the price channel in trading?**
### **1️⃣ Trading inside the channel** (Strategy 1)
✅ **Buy from the lower limit of the channel** (at the moving support).
✅ **Sell at the upper limit of the channel** (at the moving resistance).
📌 This strategy is effective in stable markets without strong breakouts.
📍 **Example of trading inside the channel:**
- In the ascending channel, if the price touches the lower limit, the purchase is made with a **stop loss below the channel**.
- In the descending channel, if the price touches the upper limit, the sale is made with a **stop loss above the channel**.
---
### **2️⃣ Trading when the channel is broken** (Strategy 2)
🔴 **Breaking the upper limit of the channel** → indicates **continuation of the upward trend** (buy signal).
🔴 **Breaking the lower limit of the channel** → indicates **continuation of the downward trend** (sell signal).
📍 **Example of breaking the channel:**
- If the price is inside an ascending channel, then **breaks the upper limit**, a **buy deal** can be entered after a retest.
- If the price is inside a descending channel, then **breaks the lower limit**, a **sell deal** can be entered after a retest.
---
## **🟢 Fifth: Analysis of the attached image**
✅ **In the attached chart, we have an ascending channel within a downward trend**, and the channel was broken downwards, which led to **continuation of the downward trend**.
✅ Areas have been identified:
- **SL (Stop Loss)** → Stop loss above the channel to prevent risks.
- **LOGIN** → Entry point after breaking the channel.
- **TP (Take Profit)** → Take profits based on the channel size.
---
## **🟢 Sixth: Professional tips for using price channels**
💡 **Combine them with other indicators** such as RSI or MACD to confirm signals.
💡 **Monitoring volume**: When the channel is broken with high trading volume, the break is stronger.
💡 **Time analysis**: Using channels on different frames gives better accuracy.
💡 **Use appropriate stop loss** to protect capital from false breakouts.
---
🚀 **💡 Summary:** Price channels are a powerful tool for identifying trends and entry and exit points, and are used in trading within the channel or when a price break occurs. Their accuracy can be improved by combining them with other indicators and understanding volume and price momentum.
Bitcoin Seasonality - Best Month (October) and Best Day (Monday)It's very important for every Bitcoin trader to know its seasonality because this will significantly increase the probability of successful trades. I have been trading Bitcoin for almost 10 years, and I successfully use seasonality patterns to predict Bitcoin price movements. For example, you don't want to go long on Bitcoin during August or September; that's probably a very bad idea. The biggest market crashes usually happen in September. But you definitely want to go long in October or April, as these months are the most promising. Knowledge of these patterns will give you an advantage over standard retail traders. Every trade matters.
Average return by Month (%)
January: +5.1%
February: +12.1%
March: +4.8%
April: ˇ+18.7%
May: +14.2%
June: +4.4%
July: +6.1%
August: -3.1%
September: -8.4%
October: +22.2%
November: +17.9%
December: +7.3%
Average return by Weekday (%)
Monday: +0.63%
Tuesday: +0.18%
Wednesday: +0.54%
Thursday: +0.40%
Friday: +0.37%
Saturday: +0.45%
Sunday: +0.10%
Currently I am bullish on Bitcoin as the price is in an uptrend and the bear market is not confirmed; I expect Bitcoin to hit 115k probably at the end of February. What I also expect is an alt season - alt season is starting right now! So it's time to buy some altcoins. Ethereum should outperform BTC in the next weeks as well.
Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Gold Longterm Sentiment IndexUpdate 2 indicators:
1: HUI,XAU and GOLD Ratio Analysis
2: Cyber.Gold Sentiment Longterm Index
TT
I wonder when TradingView will ban
publish my indicator.
The platform with the stupid rules.
The relationship between HUI,XAU,GDX
HUI: Gold mining company performance stock
XAU: Gold mining company stock bakjc,metal
GDX: Tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) including large-cap companies
Source:
byvn.net
seekingalpha.com
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1!
The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components:
Ichimoku Indicator Components:
1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average)
• Short-term trend indicator.
• A sharp slope suggests strong momentum.
2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average)
• Medium-term trend indicator.
• Acts as a support/resistance level.
3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• A rising Span A suggests an uptrend.
4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red).
5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind)
• Confirms trend direction.
• If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum.
Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku
1. Kumo Breakout Strategy
• Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud).
• Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo.
2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy
• Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen.
• Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen.
3. Chikou Span Confirmation
• Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action.
• Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action.
4. Kumo Twist
• When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal.
• When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal.
5. Trend Confirmation
• Price above the cloud = bullish trend.
• Price inside the cloud = consolidation.
• Price below the cloud = bearish trend.
Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy
✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance).
✅ Works well in trending markets.
✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals.
Limitations
❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets.
❌ Can be complex for beginners.
❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD).
Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
Trade Management Strategy Testing Dow JonesI will be trying out a new holding style for my trades going forward based on my journal and statistics. Instead of having a fixed target, I will instead hold my trades all the way until 04:00pm market close.
Pros:
Letting trades run. I don't know how far a trade will go. By not having a strict target, I can lock in those big running days.
Not stressing over if it will hit target. By not having a strict target, I can just let price do what it is going to do and close my day trades at 04:00pm. I don't have to worry about if it is only 10 ticks away from my target.
Allows me more freedom to use my time elsewhere. By not having a strict target, I know all my day trades will be closed by 04:00pm. I will set an alarm 5 minutes before 4 to close any open positions. I can then use my time more productively instead of being at the screen.
Cons:
Giving back profits. I know by not having a strict target that I can be up a certain percent and by the end of day close, any/all profits can be gone and or stopped out.
Can have a lot of small wins/losses and Breakevens mixed with the occasional stop out and giant win. Since I have no target, I have no control over how much profit I may make in a given day. Someone with a fixed target knows they are getting out at 2:1 for example.
Below is an exact trade I have taken using strict target of 200 ticks.
Using End of Day Hold the trade would look like this
200 ticks vs 553 ticks
This is just one example, and my journal shows countless more just like this.
If anybody has any thoughts or experience with this holding style, I would love to hear feedback.
Mastering Bitcoin #1In this quick but educational video we delve into the intricacies of Bitcoin's price movements using popular technical analysis tools like Bollinger Bands, Elliott Wave Theory, Triple Moving Average, and Bearish Divergence on MACD and RSI. Learn how these few indicators can help predict what might be ahead for Bitcoin based on current data.
I'm gonna make this into a habit, creating short, educational videos, so expect more of this insightful, bite-sized content going forward.
How To identify the Jesse Livermore Buy PatternAs traders, we're always on the lookout for reliable patterns that can give us an edge in the market. One such pattern, popularized by the legendary trader Jesse Livermore, is the Accumulation Cylinder with Widening Mouth.
This pattern is a rare but potentially explosive formation that can signal a significant price move.
What is the Accumulation Cylinder with Widening Mouth?
The Accumulation Cylinder with Widening Mouth is a technical analysis pattern where the price of an asset moves back and forth between two non-parallel lines, creating a cylinder-like shape.
Over time, the "mouth" of the cylinder widens as the price continues to fluctuate within the pattern. This pattern is often seen during periods of consolidation, where the market is accumulating before a potential breakout.
Key Characteristics
Non-Parallel Lines: The price moves between two trendlines that are not parallel.
Widening Mouth: The distance between the trendlines increases over time.
Consolidation: The pattern typically forms during a period of consolidation, where the price is ranging within a defined area.
Volume: You must see that the volume size is as pictured in the schema.
This post is real evidence that such a pattern does exist.
In addition, you can see that the consolidation period takes time to develop...
No need to rush...
Also, if you have not got on it from the start, by looking at the past, you can estimate that the runup is just starting, so you can still get some of the cream.
The Plus and Minus are showing increasing volume vs decreasing volume.






















