If the stock breaks below the 100MA, there is nothing left to support it. My bet is that it's going to go in the 31$ area. On top of that the elections are coming very quickly and this creates a lot of fear in the market. So if it breaks below the 100MA, I will be buying TVIX and VXX
There is an important resistance level in the area of 40$ and the stock can't seem to break it. It tried many times but it remained unsuccessful. On top of that, we can see an important RSI divergence which can give us a hint on which way the breakout will be. The fear of the elections will also drag the price down below the triangle.
4 hour chart for S&P 500 So as promised, here is my take on the S&P 500 and where I see things moving in the next two months. I feel very confident that we have just completed the 4th corrective wave of this 5 wave impulse. As you can see, this 4th wave is shallow and complicated. And the 2nd wave (Brexit) is deep and cleaner. So all that is left is the 5th...
In almost every instance that VXX closed above 20 MA, market sold off and VXX had ~20% gain. Success probability of the trade is really high. Having said that, today's market price action was not in favor of this trade!
$XIV setting to break out this week
My estimate for the bottom is on the chart. Then up up and away until December or January Fed rate hike
XIV has a IHS forming and already the pattern has broken out! VXX should tumble while VIX should see $9 mark!
This might be an interesting pattern to monitor. Lately the SPY has been outperforming inverted VIX, unlike what happened at the start of the 2016 uptrend, where we observed a shift from outperformance to underperformance. The inverted VIX daily chart shows a daily downtrend is ongoing and suggests we'll see a 22.88% drop (22.88% jump in VIX) over the next few...
Hi, this is my first published chart on the site. Keeping it simple this is what I'm seeing after the last brexit week recovery. To me it looks as though there is enough information to warrant the creation of a new downtrend channel based on the lower highs after 6/8/16. I don't know if SPX/ us markets will open higher on july 5, but I currently think a market...
Notes on the chart. For a long time I thought a big correction was imminent, but I now think this market is ready to move up to the next level.
1W: 1M; Since end of May, there has been bullish price action, however it was with relatively unimpressive volume. Light volume = Low conviction. Even though the bullish price action lacked conviction, it still was note worthy. One not worthy point is making a new HH and breaking a key resistance. Since making the HH, volume has substantially...
1M: 1W: The break above light blue trend line was very bullish, even with moderate volume. The bears could not take control to break even relatively week support areas. Are the bulls gaining momentum? This recent price action could be a signal that the May 2015 high could be tested and surpassed. I still expect further volatility in 2016, but a push...
There is a growing queue of IPO's which have not gone public, they cite market volatility. Looking to the IPO ETF we can see those who have IPO'ed into the volatility have underperformed considerably
As volatility is becoming more violent and frequent and generally on the rise, the source of alpha through XIV ETN products which shorts second month VIX futures to buy front month futures back is becoming less stable. Whist the VRP (Volatility risk premium) remains technically, the period of rough water will err on the side of the statistically unlikely in terms...
May credit spreads expired. Good R/R on August options (for a credit spread)...close to 1/1. My break even is at SPY=$210.20. While my hypothesis has been evolving, I still see SPY as volatile. The August options provide some flexibility to adjust if prices go up to $208-212 range and continue to profit if SPY stay in current range. 1W: 1M:
My opinion, if you objectively examine the charts, I don't see how you can be an "All In Bear" or an "All In Bull" regarding long-term projections. The RED Line is a key resistance. Even testing it is bullish the long term even if it holds. 1M: On 1M...Candles long shadows (pinbar) demonstrating strong bullish bounce off the key support each time it has...
As anticipated, SPY reached my "strong sell zone" and even with drop today, could eventually continue further in the zone. I closed my XIV position two days ago with a +20% gain and yesterday I opened a short SPY position by selling call option (credit or bear) spreads. My previous positions have all been expired and this has been the first favorable opportunity...