JLJ002500

SPY - Analysis, What to watch for, Potential opportunity

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
1W: 1M;
Since end of May, there has been bullish price action, however it was with relatively unimpressive volume . Light volume = Low conviction. Even though the bullish price action lacked conviction, it still was note worthy. One not worthy point is making a new HH and breaking a key resistance. Since making the HH, volume has substantially increased as prices have pulled back. Purely based on price action, yesterday was an important day because the day before was a high volume battle where neither the bulls or bears could gain control. That made yesterdays bearish candle carry more weight than it would have on it's own.

What to watch...
- For the bulls to continue to advance, they need a HL following 6/8's HH
- Two things would add credibility to a bull bias
1) we get bullish candles in the next day or two
2) the volume increase on their next push
- For the bears to regain control, they need a convincing close below 202.7. "Convincing" would be high volume and big bodied bear candle.

If the bears regain control in a convincing manner, price could retest the ~182-180 strong support zone .

Opportunities:
- I'm buying XIV             if there is a strong rejection candle or bull candle around 205 - 202.8
- If that occurs, i'll also adjust some of my short positions
- If 202.7 support zone fails, i'll have to look at risk/reward of additional short positions. I want to be selective and wait for favorable conditions. This could be rangy.
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