Since end of May, there has been price action, however it was with relatively unimpressive . Light = Low conviction. Even though the price action lacked conviction, it still was note worthy. One not worthy point is making a new HH and breaking a key resistance. Since making the HH, has substantially increased as prices have pulled back. Purely based on price action, yesterday was an important day because the day before was a high battle where neither the bulls or bears could gain control. That made yesterdays candle carry more weight than it would have on it's own.
What to watch...
- For the bulls to continue to advance, they need a HL following 6/8's HH
- Two things would add credibility to a bias
1) we get candles in the next day or two
2) the increase on their next push
- For the bears to regain control, they need a convincing close below 202.7. "Convincing" would be high and big bodied candle.
If the bears regain control in a convincing manner, price could retest the ~182-180 strong .
- I'm buying XIV if there is a strong rejection candle or candle around 205 - 202.8
- If that occurs, i'll also adjust some of my short positions
- If 202.7 fails, i'll have to look at risk/reward of additional short positions. I want to be selective and wait for favorable conditions. This could be rangy.