... , one high implied volatility (HTZ), two low implied volatility (TLT, GLD), and one long-dated bullish assumption oil trade (XOP). High Implied Volatility HTZ "Monied" Covered Call Buy 100 Shares at 16.96 Sell Oct 20th 15 call 13.99 db (your cost basis in the shares) 1.01 max profit if called away at 15 Notes: Roll the short call out for additional cost...
ERF has had a large run up relative to other companies in it's industry. There is a large wick with large volume, this is a sell signal to me. I'd pair this short off with some long XOP but either way I believe it should work.
One significant dip in USOIL around 6am predicted a lower open and subsequent dip and daily run on USOIL and XOP today. Oil futures were down significantly, and XOP was trading at the top of its most recent channel.
Closed a trade last week and had no position in XOP. Today we had a -2% move down and around 9% in the last month IV rank is not great, but right now not many ETF's have over 20 Implided volatility rank. So I decided to sell a straddle with no upside risk (Big Lizard). The trade: Sold the 33 Call Sold the 33 Put Bought the 35 Call Total credit $2.16
If you want to know how XOP, GUSH and DRIP are trending, just take a look at the crude oil futures. XOP responds to CLQ2017 throughout the day.
Premium Selling For the umpteenth week in a row, there is little in the market for high quality premium selling plays. Screening for 52-week >70 implied volatility rank, you'll basically get one quality hit at the moment, and that is COST, which has dipped significantly on AMZN/WFM merger news. A few names are approaching that 70 mark, but they have earnings...
With Friday seeing a pop in QQQ implied volatility (six month implied volatility rank at 100; background implied at 19%), I'm looking to add in a touch of broad index core position here in the Q's, having just exited all my June setups. I have depicted the neutral assumption, defined risk July 21st 131/134/2 x 145/2 x 146 iron condor here (probability of profit:...
With an IVR of 32, I Sold the 37/34 Strangle for $1.52. Our break evens are at $38.52 and $32.48. 58% probability of profit
With XOP hanging around horizontal support here and with OPEC output cut extension talks and jawboning on the near-term horizon, it only makes sense to talk about petro plays with a bullish assumption, particularly due to XOP implied volatility rank (in the 74th percentile over the past six months) with background implied volatility at 34. Here are three: ...
EARNINGS HPQ, LOW, BBY, and GME are all up for earnings announcements. Out of these, BBY and GME appear to be the best candidates for premium selling, given their implied volatility rank and background implied volatility metrics, although virtually every liquid underlying with an earnings announcement bears watching; implied volatility can pop at the last...
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Fund has been in a defined bearish trend for all of 2017. Due to this bearish movement, the 100 day moving average (DMA) is about to cross below the 150 DMA. This actual event has occurred 6 times in the history of the fund and has resulted in a minimal drop of 1.541%. It has a median drop of 6.918% and maximum drop...
Sold the 36/37 Call credit spread and sold the 34 Put eliminating the risk to the upside. In total received $1.06. 72% probability of profit.
With VIX in another ebb and a paucity of high quality premium selling earnings plays in the making for next week with both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility, I'm looking at exchange traded funds instead for potential plays. For instance, EWY, the South Korea exchange traded fund, makes sense in the current geopolitical environment, and its...
... for a .03 db. At its outset, you short put is basically completely "financing" the cost of your long put (but for the $3 it cost to put the trade on). Your goal is to roll the short option forward for duration, collecting credits along the way and to exit the setup for a debit that is less than what you collected in credits (as you would do with any credit...
With fourth quarter earnings announcements trailing off majorly here, there isn't much in the way of earnings to play, with the earnings of note for premium sellers being FDX, which announces on 3/21 after market close, and NKE (same). FDX is toward the top of its implied volatility range over the past six months (85), with NKE in the 63rd percentile over that...
Looking for petro to zombie about in here in the short term ... . Implied volatility rank isn't as high as I'd like it, but background vol is one of the higher ones out there for exchange traded funds. Metrics: Max Profit: $242/contract Max Loss: $158/contract Break Evens: 37.58/42.42 Notes: Will look to manage at north of 25% max profit.