yield

We may show some short term demand on bonds because of equities volatility that I already expect. But I think anyway the EU bond market will remain under the bigger catalyst that this market will have to forecast new prices to settle to after ECB will pull out in december. My trading plan here is to remain bullish on the december future expiration and buying all ...

The Bond Auction went well as expected that could help the Bond Yield which could underpin the Dollar. Bond Auction for the 10Y later today and expecting a Demand>Supply situation as well. EURUSD -0.13% have been ranging between 1.17xx handle and 1.16xx (Accumulation) and I am picking a downward direction if the pair attempts to expand its range for September. ...

Yield Spread of EUR/CAD is rising.

Yield spread of NZD/USD dropped to new lows.

Refer To Chart! Happy Trading, folks! Cheers!

I posted a while back that the "rising rate" mantra may not be as sure as most think. To recap my view in brevity: Rates are up against a multi-decade long falling trend line, so it'll take more than a few sessions or weeks to overcome. I do believe that rates will be higher if you're looking out years or even decades, but shorter- to intermediate- term, the ...

Get out of bonds.

Looking at the 10yr treasury as a gauge for the overall rate environment and the revised GDP data, I'm predicting the US will see rates rise for roughly the next year before coming to a peak around 3.75% on the 10yr before beginning a new wave lower, just in time for the coming recession in the summer of 2019. Expect to see 30 year fixed US Mortgage rates above ...

FVX Longer Term Outlook for Rates Since Yellen retired in February FVX has risen to test the the junction of the upper parallel at the same point in time as it hit the fixed resistance line at 29.83. Since then it's been consolidating inside a slowly forming pennant formation with a spike down to the 25.46 line almost exactly before it pushed higher again. Though ...

The dividend yield (DY) is simply the amount of money a company pays a shareholder in dividends divided by the share price. It's therefore a measure of value for a stock. A DY < 1 would mean that the shares cost more to by than the shareholder receives in dividends, therefore extremely overvalued. In a bear market, the DY increases very fast. During a bull ...

Regarding today's bond market behavior, I am reminded of the following words of wisdom mostly attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." From Trump's successful efforts in negotiating an end to a 70 year North/South Korean war, and denuclearization of NoKo, to the Fed raising interest ...

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The SPX volatility so far this year shows some uncertainty over 'fair value'. Based on 2018 earnings estimates from Factset of 160 earnings/share for the SPX, if we divide 160 by the current SPX price the chart reflects what's known as the 'earnings yield'. Shown inversely it is known as the forward P/E ratio. So far this year the SPX earnings yield has ...

Silver - still a good entry point as the last couple days, and moving up from the bottom of its range. There is a whole, whole lot going on in the silver (and gold) story, but that's another article. For now I'd like to point out some action on the SLV's chart. Silver has been bouncing in a tight range for much of 2018. Buying in the low $15's and selling on the ...

Hold tight for this ride, there's a variety of reasons why bond prices will stagnate or fall. Interest rates should rise and be higher than they are now; "should" certainly isn't a reason for something to happen, but there are scant monetary policy maneuverings available for the Fed to keep interest rates low and by extension, prop the stock market up much ...

Watch this immense gap between the 5 y treasuries and the thirty years bonds. It will close sooner or later and I don´t expect the 5-y to fall or not far enough to close it. We´ll see probably a fast rise of yields in the 30- y bonds and this will cause much losses to the investors who are not aware of this. Sure, the indicators are signalling a correction in the ...

AMEX:SPY S&P 500 is following a giant descending triangle, even though on 04.18.18 it has not touched the triangle. Overall the market is bearish short term , despite being in the earnings season. In a bullish market some neutral and positive earnings report would have been interpreted as bullish . Increasing treasury yields may be partly to blame. As investors ...

higher dxy real rates spread increse => pressure on gold prices? bearish for across the board EM assets terrible news for etf managers china to start thinking about all the 1.3 bn usd worth of almost 0 yield US papers they hold imf and wb funding become more important => sharing policy making decissions with the west again .... for the sector, it means importance ...