10-Year US Treasury yield remains in a long term downtrend channel, in the process of completing downwave (3) of V near the bottom of the channel at around 0.70%. Key resistance that if broken would invalidate this bearish scenario is the 3.04% level.
This is a similar chart to that published by Technician (see related idea below) that shows a clear divergence between stock markets and bond markets. I realize after making this chart that I had identified several bearish signals in bond markets at the start of the year, and I thought that we would thereby see a stock market correction in 2014. Stocks are the...
Despite the powerful rally over the last several weeks that brought the US equity markets back to their all-time highs, treasury yields are up only slightly and are well below mid-September levels. Meanwhile, as Gavekal Capital notes, speculators are still carrying a hefty short position in 10-year treasury futures and options contracts, implying that yields have...