Fundamental idea that term premia should revert back to historic norms supports this trade.
Uptrend should resume after the 61.8% retracement and bullish divergence. Fundamentally a normal mean reversion of term premium is occurring. This should also support the USD in the medium-term and keep the uptrend intact for 2017. However the move may be choppy because of extreme long positioning.
Long term trade (unless we get a big quick move). Breakout high target $33!!! ENTRY: $25 FIRST TARGET: $27 SECOND TARGET: $30 FINAL TARGET: $33 TARGETS MAY BE ADJUSTED WITH CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS*** Not to mention an approximately 6% dividend yield if you have to wait
The TNX should be watched very closely next week as the daily chart currently indicates a high risk of seeing another bond rally in the wake of the latest US employment figures (which weren't all that bad). If doubts over a possible Fed rate hike towards the end of the year strengthen in September, the 10-year yield could fall back to it's historical lows, reached...
GBPNZD: 1. Wanted to repost my view on GBPNZD - remain short on rallies here into 1.82 with a 1.80, 200pip target. 2. This whole week weve remained strictly rangebound and sterling kiwi has paid every time (about 10) on shorts at the 1.810 level so i will continue this view at 1.82 given: 1) NZD carry continues to be the highest in G10 so Kiwi demand will...
b]GBPAUD: 1. Sterlingaussie has been aggressively bid higher for the last 7-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 8th day or more of buying is 0.254% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance...
Minutes were neutral with little hints to further action, much of which inline with the SOMP - if anything it was on the hawkish side given they expect "inflation to be improved by easing" which infers they think policy stable at 1.50% might be sufficient. Though they did go on to say "AUD$ rise could cause complications" though it was kept to a very limited sense...
cci and percent r upper range see our book on amazon why it is important-relative strength good-adx 38 good range number-money flow good-always diversify among high yields-stop loss 50day ma-strong group-weekly cloud around 50
WMT is offering a very nice entry, after forming a new weekly mode, which implies the strong uptrend is seeing reaccumulation at higher levels. I'm looking to enter longs at market, at the open, ideally on retrace to the mid point of the green triangle on chart. Stops should be below 67.40, for example at 66.51, or using 3 times the daily ATR. Yield is very nice...
PBF has broken the inside downtrend line, forming a mode after rallying above earnings resistance. Free cash flow has turned positive recently, and the stock looks to be accumulated and ready to rally very soon. The dividend yield is quite attractive and I think we can see some nice upside in due time intil FCF yield is low again. Look to enter longs at market,...
stop loss at cloud-price volume trend good relative strength good-cci and percent r upper range-watch for 200 day above-always have stop losses in high yield candidate diversify between picks and industry
High Yield Equity (DVY) broke below the since-2009 purple line today.
Gold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months. After gold volatility hit...
Junk bonds are typically just that - junk. But, the iShares High Yield Corporate has been one of those crowded trades that just do not die. After witnessing the immaculate short squeeze from 1,864, the SPX staged an impressive rebound. But as I mentioned earlier today (on my InvestFeed - link below), the SPY is looking weak, and the ADX, which measures trend...
Running Alpha Capital Markets observes that higher rates are not always a headwind, as the not too distant record shows that the electric utilities group can outperform and offer a margin of safety. During the last period of higher rates, from mid 2004 to mid-2006, the FOMC hiked rates 16 times, and despite these incremental actions, electric utilities actually...
The 10-Year Treasury Note Yield is on the verge of breakdown due to the recent downtrend in oil and consequent lowered inflation expectations. Despite the anticipated FED rate hike, the Yield can actually go in opposite direction (the famous puzzle outlined by Greenspan, the former FED chairman) The breakdown in the Yield will be confirmed on quarterly basis, if...